Random Speculation: Earlier Philippine Independence

The earlier independent Philippines in 1820s would surely take Sabah and that's it. I think it would be unlikely for the Philippines to be industrialized earlier than Germany because the Industrial Revolution outside Britain was still in its infancy thus Philippine industrialization would happen only in the 20th century. Philippines might be one of the richest countries in Asia in this TTL powered by British investments but the economy would be mainly agricultural based.
 
The earlier independent Philippines in 1820s would surely take Sabah and that's it. I think it would be unlikely for the Philippines to be industrialized earlier than Germany because the Industrial Revolution outside Britain was still in its infancy thus Philippine industrialization would happen only in the 20th century. Philippines might be one of the richest countries in Asia in this TTL powered by British investments but the economy would be mainly agricultural based.

True. I'm just trying to see how early the Philippines could industrialize.

Like, if it could industrialize at least around the Meiji era. Or if it would even have the components to industrialize. And what direction it would take to get to that point.

What would make the Philippines expansionist? And what would be the effects of that?
 
Last edited:
The earlier independent Philippines in 1820s would surely take Sabah and that's it. I think it would be unlikely for the Philippines to be industrialized earlier than Germany because the Industrial Revolution outside Britain was still in its infancy thus Philippine industrialization would happen only in the 20th century. Philippines might be one of the richest countries in Asia in this TTL powered by British investments but the economy would be mainly agricultural based.

Not necessarily take Sabah. Sabah being part of the Philippines is a 1960s concept based on the Sulu claim. Philippines will have claim to Sabah if Sulu passes it to the Philippines thru a treaty or right of conquest. And Sultanate of Sulu Territories/claim doesnt end in OTL Sabah. It goes down to Tarakan in North Kalimantan.

The Celebes claim remained in OTL until the American colonial period thru Spanish Claim in the product being US vs Dutch Islas Palmas case at League of Nations.

The same can be said of Formosa/Taiwan of Spanish claims there which predates Chinese rule/Koxinga.

Besides that, they were all a stone throw away from the Philippines which view it as threat if it change hands like Taiwan in 1895 or trying to change hands like Taiwan 1884 or Dutch creeping at Tarakan 1860s. Any reasonable modern nation would want to secure anything adjacent to it. I am thinking Argentina vs paraguay or Chile vs Peru, bolivia or England vs Scotland/Ireland or even how USA took large chunks of Mexico.
 
True. I'm just trying to see how early the Philippines could industrialize.

Like, if it could industrialize at least around the Meiji era. Or if it would even have the components to industrialize. And what direction it would take to get to that point.

Philippines would have retained or started certain manufacturing/industries in 1820s. Shipbuilding and the required tools to make ships as legacy left by Spanish shipyards in 1820s, Tools for agriculture and mining, Arsenal for weaponry.

But I have to agree with Joseph that majority manufacturing, meaning the economy relying on industries greater than 50%, wouldnt happen in the 19th century.

What would make the Philippines expansionist? And what would be the effects of that?

Expansionist thru self defense. The first external problem Philippines would encounter are the Moros. They would be a continuous threat.

The Moro Sultanates who keep encouraging/tolerate Raids/piracy would be eradicated in ATL. I suspect fewer Moros and Moro Sultanates in ATL.

This would give pretext for interaction with Borneo both as Allies to piracy/raids and to protect the claims of Sulu or what have been acquired from Sulu.

Then, if Philippines goes to a British centric foreign policy, the first interaction with Formosa/Taiwan would be the First Opium war 1840s. Formosan invasion would have been assigned to the Philippines.

If the Philippines captures Formosa, the treaty of Nanking would have been Hong Kong for Britain, Formosa for Philippines. Thus, making the control of Taiwan going full circle. Spanish East Indies->Dutch->Ming->Qing->Philippines.
 
Top