Random Musings: Jordan Captures West Jerusalem in 1948?

Currently reading John Bagot Glubb's, aka. Glubb Pasha, The Story of the Arab Legion and got to wondering what if any changes might occur if Jordan had been able to successfully capture West Jerusalem and then hold it against the Israelis? I was thinking maybe either just the greater metropolitan area of Jerusalem or perhaps up to roughly half way between Jerusalem and Beit Shemesh, assume that the rest of what would become the borders of the West Bank stay roughly the same. Now would the Israelis eventually agree to an armistice as in our timeline or would they sign them individually with the other countries and then keep fighting Jordan? Assuming that Jordan is able to keep control what if any changes might this prompt before the Six-Day War or analogous conflict that probably has the Israelis capturing the city and West Bank?
 

Cook

Banned
It’d have to happen under someone other than Glubb Pasha, or the local commander disregarding his orders wouldn’t it? Wasn’t there and agreement between the British and the Jordanians that they would take over the Arab areas of Palestine, but not enter the Jewish areas? And a similar agreement negotiated by Golda Mier?

It’s been ages since I read up on the Israeli War of Independence so may be off as to the extent or details of the agreements. (Mac would have been useful here.)
 
There was? Huh, interesting - haven't actually gotten to the post-war bit so it may say something about that - mainly just read about the Legion in Jerusalem and Latrun on another site and it got me wondering. Yeah Mac would of been handy to chime in. Will have to go track him down over on Counter-Factual.net, besides this I need to see if he's updated his Soviet Invasion of Iran story. :)
 
Currently reading John Bagot Glubb's, aka. Glubb Pasha, The Story of the Arab Legion and got to wondering what if any changes might occur if Jordan had been able to successfully capture West Jerusalem and then hold it against the Israelis?

How? Superior supplies of handwavium? The Legion took the Old City and forced the Jewish Quarter to surrender, but at the cost of heavy casualties. The Legion didn't have the manpower or arms to take the rest of Jerusalem.

Also, AIUI, Glubb opposed using the Arab Legion in city fighting. They had been trained to operate in the modes most suited to Arabs - mobile warfare, hit-and-run attacks, ambushes, infiltration - not frontal assaults on strong defensive terrain. That's why the fight in Old Jerusalem cost them so much.

New Jerusalem would be even worse.

Now if the Legion did have sufficient handwavium - the result would be a disaster for Israel. The large Jewish population in Jerusalem would be lost. The Legion didn't murder civilians, but it would be surprising if they could restrain the mobs of Palestinian irregulars that would follow in their wake. Probably the great majority of the Jews would be safely evacuated to Tel Aviv, but thousands - perhaps tens of thousands - would be murdered.

A large part of the Haganah would be destroyed, Israel would lose its designated capital, and about 1/6 of its population would lose their homes and property.

On the other hand, it would be a gigantic triumph for King Abdullah, who would step forward as the only successful Arab warrior against the Zionists.
 
Well as the title reflects it was more of a random musing on what the results might be rather than how it came about. Off the top of my head whilst the figures sometimes seem to vary a bit depending on who you ask they generally put the Legion's strength at roughly 4-6,000 men, down from 16,000 at the end of the Second World War. Perhaps rather than cutting seventy-five percent of the manpower of the Legion it's only cut by fifty percent so they have 8,000 trained men available as opposed to our timeline's 4,000. Considering the war in Europe and Asia has just finished they might of been able to pick up some extra equipment and supplies to bulk out their forces a bit. Jordan had begun building up an air force in the form of the Arab Legion Air Force by 1950, Peake Pasha bought himself a de Havilland Moth in the early 1930s that was apparently used both militarily and civilly, and Jordan had apparently already been proposing that the British help establish an air force much earlier on but they didn't reply until 1948. Maybe the Jordanians push for it sooner or perhaps as a stop-gap some recently demobbed experienced pilots from Europe are hired and buy or get donated some old surplus Hawker Hurricanes or Typhoons.

Granted it probably wont do much in the overall scheme of things considering how many aircraft the other countries had but fighter-bombers hitting just their targets could help them a fair bit. With double the number of men plus the Palestinian irregulars as second line troops to stop initial attempts to break the siege, and then later along with fighter-bomber attacks block attempts at creating any bypass roads such as with Operation Nachshon and Operation Maccabee respectively they might make victory more achievable. All of those are just random ideas though, like I said I need to read up more and pick some knowledgeable people's brains to see what's feasible and what is not.
 
Well as the title reflects it was more of a random musing on what the results might be rather than how it came about. Off the top of my head whilst the figures sometimes seem to vary a bit depending on who you ask they generally put the Legion's strength at roughly 4-6,000 men, down from 16,000 at the end of the Second World War. Perhaps rather than cutting seventy-five percent of the manpower of the Legion it's only cut by fifty percent so they have 8,000 trained men available as opposed to our timeline's 4,000.
I don't think that will be enough. The Israelis had 115,000 men against 70,000 Arab troops. If Jerusalem turns out to be tougher they merely tranfer men from other fronts. Politically the Jewish part of the city is a must take target. Other places can be sacrificed if necessary if that what it takes to seize the place.
Jordan had apparently already been proposing that the British help establish an air force much earlier on but they didn't reply until 1948. Maybe the Jordanians push for it sooner or perhaps as a stop-gap some recently demobbed experienced pilots from Europe are hired and buy or get donated some old surplus Hawker Hurricanes or Typhoons.
Unless they have Europeans flying for them, any Jordanian air force will easily be shot down by WW2 veterans flying Israeli Spitfires
 
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