What if Gavrilo Princip had not assassinated the Archduke of
Austria-Hungary on 28 June 1914 in Sarajevo?
This isn't exactly AH, since I'm not presenting a story so much as a
set of counterfactual events. I know others have thought of this scenario (or similar), and I'm liking joea64's ATL story so far. But my interest is more broad -- how did this one event shape the world we live in today?
Let's assume for this scenario that Gov. Potiorek did remember to tell the driver (Leopold Loyka or Lojka) to keep going straight on the Appel Quay. Princip doesn't see them, no assassinations take place, no precipitating event for WWI. (As opposed to joea64's scenario, where Potiorek is in the line of fire instead of Archduke FF.)
Of course, the causes of the Great War were very complicated,
including intricate (and sometimes secret) alliances, perceptions of
the loss of the balance of power, and misfortunes of bad timing, etc. For
example, on August 1, the tsar of Russia responded to a telegraph from
the king George V of the UK stating that he "would gladly have accepted your proposals [of keeping peace] had not the German ambassador this
afternoon presented a note to my Government declaring war." At any
rate, the tensions were such that a war of some kind may have been to
some degree inevitable. However, I'm thinking that the immediacy of the
assassination lent itself to over-hasty alliances and declarations,
and the "World" portion of the phrase "World War" might never have
come to fruition without it.
But let us imagine an optimistic scenario: Potiorek tells the driver
to continue on the Appel Quay, avoiding Princip's assassination. The
Black Hand makes no more attempts on the Archduke's life. (The
architect of the attempt, Col. Dragutin "Apis" Dimitrijevic, was
acting somewhat independently of the Black Hand's leadership -- who
realized that the act would lead to war, and tried to recall the
assassins when they found out about the plot.) Given a larger time
frame, the great European powers circumspectly limit the ramifications
of their treaties, and Britain and Russia enter the war later if at
all. The USA's original policy of non-involvement holds, the Lusitania is not
sunk, and the US doesn't enter the war; President Wilson does not
outline his Fourteen Points, and the Treaty of Versailles does not
bankrupt Germany. Therefore, a vengeful nationalism does not grow up
in Germany, no Nazi party exists, and Hitler lives and dies in
relative bohemian obscurity.
However, without World War II, the US sees further incredible
ramifications: without the entrance of Black soldiers in the war, the
seeds are not sown for renewed perceptions of racial equality,
resulting in an absent (or at least severely muted and therefore
mainly ineffectual) Civil Rights movement. Without the "Rosie the
Riveter" phenomenon (women taking domestic jobs previously reserved
for men), the Feminist movement is stillborn, or at least kept in
permanent infancy. And finally, with no US "baby boom" or post-war
economic boom, the commercialism and youth-oriented culture never
arises in America, and never spreads from thence to the corners of the
world. Can anyone truly imagine what a non-materialistic (or at least
much less so) America in the 21st century would look like?
Also, consider these side remifications: If Britain had not entered
the war, a young man named J.R.R. Tolkien would not have had occasion
or opportunity to conceive his new mythology that we came to know as
Middle-Earth in the "Lord of the Rings." If Russia (or Germany) had not entered the war, it is possible that the Tsar may not have been assassinated, or at least not for several more years. And finally, if Germany had not given rise to the Nazi party, Albert Einstein may never have come to America.
All this because Gen. Potiorek simply forgot to tell his driver to
keep going straight.
Any other ramifications I didn't think of? Love to hear your thoughts!
Austria-Hungary on 28 June 1914 in Sarajevo?
This isn't exactly AH, since I'm not presenting a story so much as a
set of counterfactual events. I know others have thought of this scenario (or similar), and I'm liking joea64's ATL story so far. But my interest is more broad -- how did this one event shape the world we live in today?
Let's assume for this scenario that Gov. Potiorek did remember to tell the driver (Leopold Loyka or Lojka) to keep going straight on the Appel Quay. Princip doesn't see them, no assassinations take place, no precipitating event for WWI. (As opposed to joea64's scenario, where Potiorek is in the line of fire instead of Archduke FF.)
Of course, the causes of the Great War were very complicated,
including intricate (and sometimes secret) alliances, perceptions of
the loss of the balance of power, and misfortunes of bad timing, etc. For
example, on August 1, the tsar of Russia responded to a telegraph from
the king George V of the UK stating that he "would gladly have accepted your proposals [of keeping peace] had not the German ambassador this
afternoon presented a note to my Government declaring war." At any
rate, the tensions were such that a war of some kind may have been to
some degree inevitable. However, I'm thinking that the immediacy of the
assassination lent itself to over-hasty alliances and declarations,
and the "World" portion of the phrase "World War" might never have
come to fruition without it.
But let us imagine an optimistic scenario: Potiorek tells the driver
to continue on the Appel Quay, avoiding Princip's assassination. The
Black Hand makes no more attempts on the Archduke's life. (The
architect of the attempt, Col. Dragutin "Apis" Dimitrijevic, was
acting somewhat independently of the Black Hand's leadership -- who
realized that the act would lead to war, and tried to recall the
assassins when they found out about the plot.) Given a larger time
frame, the great European powers circumspectly limit the ramifications
of their treaties, and Britain and Russia enter the war later if at
all. The USA's original policy of non-involvement holds, the Lusitania is not
sunk, and the US doesn't enter the war; President Wilson does not
outline his Fourteen Points, and the Treaty of Versailles does not
bankrupt Germany. Therefore, a vengeful nationalism does not grow up
in Germany, no Nazi party exists, and Hitler lives and dies in
relative bohemian obscurity.
However, without World War II, the US sees further incredible
ramifications: without the entrance of Black soldiers in the war, the
seeds are not sown for renewed perceptions of racial equality,
resulting in an absent (or at least severely muted and therefore
mainly ineffectual) Civil Rights movement. Without the "Rosie the
Riveter" phenomenon (women taking domestic jobs previously reserved
for men), the Feminist movement is stillborn, or at least kept in
permanent infancy. And finally, with no US "baby boom" or post-war
economic boom, the commercialism and youth-oriented culture never
arises in America, and never spreads from thence to the corners of the
world. Can anyone truly imagine what a non-materialistic (or at least
much less so) America in the 21st century would look like?
Also, consider these side remifications: If Britain had not entered
the war, a young man named J.R.R. Tolkien would not have had occasion
or opportunity to conceive his new mythology that we came to know as
Middle-Earth in the "Lord of the Rings." If Russia (or Germany) had not entered the war, it is possible that the Tsar may not have been assassinated, or at least not for several more years. And finally, if Germany had not given rise to the Nazi party, Albert Einstein may never have come to America.
All this because Gen. Potiorek simply forgot to tell his driver to
keep going straight.
Any other ramifications I didn't think of? Love to hear your thoughts!