Ramifications of an Austro-Hungarian separate peace

BigBlueBox

Banned
Let's say that the Brusilov Offensive was significantly more successful, with much more Central Powers casualties and much less Russian ones. In late July, as the offensive is still ongoing, Austro-Hungarian intelligence notices that the situation is about to get even worse for the Dual Monarchy because Romania is preparing to enter the war on the Entente's side. Emperor Charles, who is already on the throne after Franz Joseph's earlier than OTL death decides to discuss negotiating an end to the war with the German government, but the Germans refuse. As a result, Austria-Hungary begins secret discussions with the Entente about a separate peace. On August 20th, 1916, the ceasefire goes into effect. Under the terms of the agreement, Austria-Hungary must evacuate any Entente territory it occupies, along with BiH, Trentino, and South Transylvania. It must also partially demobilize and withdraw artillery from the borders of Entente states. In return for receiving South Transylvania (and with the hope that they could be awarded more territory at the conclusion of the war) Romania begins an offensive into Bulgaria on the 26th. What happens next?

Does Germany attack Austria-Hungary in retaliation? Do the Italians just quit, or do they send forces to the Western Front to curry favor with France and Britain or join the attack on the Ottomans in hopes of seizing territory from them? If Austria-Hungary isn't attacked by Germany, would the Entente continue to blockade it to prevent supplies from reaching Germany through Austria-Hungary? Does Bulgaria see the writing on the wall and immediately sue for peace? Could the Bulgarians go so far as to switch sides and stab the Ottomans in the back? How long does it take for the Entente to defeat Germany? What would Europe look after the postwar treaties?
 
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If they so this the italians will be smelling blood and going for as much as possible in the deal expect they are going to push hard. Once that is done then expect italians on the other fronts. It is unlikely that Germany would attack austria it has enough to deal with.
 
What happens next?

Does Germany attack Austria-Hungary in retaliation? Do the Italians just quit, or do they send forces to the Western Front to curry favor with France and Britain or join the attack on the Ottomans in hopes of seizing territory from them? If Austria-Hungary isn't attacked by Germany, would the Entente continue to blockade it to prevent supplies from reaching Germany through Austria-Hungary? Does Bulgaria see the writing on the wall and immediately sue for peace? Could the Bulgarians go so far as to switch sides and stab the Ottomans in the back? How long does it take for the Entente to defeat Germany? What would Europe look after the postwar treaties?

In this order:

- It's plausible on both sides, The no answer would be because Germany now has more problems to deal with, Austria-Hungary quitting the war means any troops not already dedicated to the Italian fronts are now going to the Western Meatgrinders, while the Russians can now focus their troops on the Eastern Front against Germany and thus need to defend the former Congress Poland. On the yes argument though, assuming this was before Austria quits, Germany would be looking to occupy some part of the moribund Empire, to protect itself from Russian forces attacking from the south into Bavaria and Silesia.

- Doubtful. While the Italians would get pretty much everything they want (Trentino, South Tyrol, Istria and Dalmatia.) Because the Italian Army would not be so thoroughly mauled as per OTL, I could expect them to open up other fronts, supporting the Anglo-French in the West as mentioned above, but also against an Ottoman Empire where the corridor of supplies and support has now been cut off.

- I don't see an Entente blockade as likely, partially because what trade is going to Germany at this point? Plus if any supplies are going to Germany by Austria-Hungary, it would have to be by A-H itself, since they share a border.

- Yeah, Bulgaria (and likely the OE) is going to see the writing on the wall and quit. Fortunately, since this is before Greece's entry, I kinda see Bulgaria coming out relatively unmolested post-war. (Especially since the A-H and OE would make for far better targets for territorial expansion.)

- Unlikely due to the above

- Not long, A-H throwing in the towel, Bulgaria and the OE cut off from German support and also throwing in the towel. Either Germany decides to quit because it's the world against them, or they keep fighting, and run the risk of losing far, far more.

- Will answer this question later, keep posted.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
In this order:

- Yeah, Bulgaria (and likely the OE) is going to see the writing on the wall and quit. Fortunately, since this is before Greece's entry, I kinda see Bulgaria coming out relatively unmolested post-war. (Especially since the A-H and OE would make for far better targets for territorial expansion.)

- Unlikely due to the above
Is the Entente going to allow OE to exit the war? The Arab revolt is already ongoing, the Sikes-Picot Plan has already been made, and Britain and France have indicated that they would not be opposed to Russian control of Constantinople.

Edit: Would the Italians really get South Tyrol? I know they wanted it for defensive purposes, but IIRC the French and British let them have it in compensation for Yugoslavia taking other territory the Italians were promised. Furthermore, I don’t think Charles would agree to a ceasefire if it meant giving up clearly Austro-German territory. Furthermore, if an ATL Treaty of Sevres is successfully imposed then I doubt Britain and France will want to aggrandize Italy even further.
 
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I actually toyed around with the idea of writing a separate peace TL. The real issue with any separate peace is, IMO, Italy. Russia, Serbia and even Romania can be convinced. Britain doesn't care all that mich and Framce, for all that they torpedoed the OTL negotiations, could be convinced to go along if it will weaken Germany/strengthen their allies.

Italy, however, knows that an Austria that hasn't been thoroughly defeated will be unlikely to give them what they joined the war for. South Tyrol and parts of Gorizia, maybe, but Trieste (Austria's primary commercial port and major shipyard), Istria (Austria's primary military port anf minor shipyard) and Fiume (Austria second-largest commercial port and second largest shipyard) ... Austria is unlikely to want to hand those over. For comparison, think Poland and Danzig in the interwar period - handing the territories Italy wants over would cripple Austria. They'd probably be more willing to hand over all of Galizia-Lodomeria than Trieste.

And Italy has bled far too much to be content with anything less, even without Caporetto. Remember, IOTL, Italian casualties were greater than the total population of the territories they actually gained in the war.

Depending on the situation ... the separate peace could fail (because accepting it will alienate Italy, though conditions on the front might make the rest of the Entente prioritize weakening Germany/saving Russia over Italian concerns). Or you could see a 1-on-1 continuation war between Austria and Italy while the rest of the Entente retires from the war ... maybe with some perfunctory support from their allies, such as the French continuing to maintain the barrage hemming Austrian ships in the Adriatic. Or even the Entente rejoining once Italy keeps fighting ... though the other powers are too occupied to really commit troops to the Italian theatre and the terrain is really not conductive to any kind of offensive.
 
Is the Entente going to allow OE to exit the war? The Arab revolt is already ongoing, the Sikes-Picot Plan has already been made, and Britain and France have indicated that they would not be opposed to Russian control of Constantinople.

Edit: Would the Italians really get South Tyrol? I know they wanted it for defensive purposes, but IIRC the French and British let them have it in compensation for Yugoslavia taking other territory the Italians were promised. Furthermore, I don’t think Charles would agree to a ceasefire if it meant giving up clearly Austro-German territory. Furthermore, if an ATL Treaty of Sevres is successfully imposed then I doubt Britain and France will want to aggrandize Italy even further.

I feel they should (in regards to the Italians in South Tyrol), but if they don't then well...I'm not infallable, I make mistakes.

As for the OE, at this point, it's damned if you do, damned if you don't really. No matter what, it's going to get broken up hard. It's just that without A-H, either the Ottomans sit back and let it happen, or the Middle Eastern front I feel will definitely go a bit faster.

EDIT: Truth be told, there is really giving me some thoughts on a TL revolving around Karl getting dealt a crap hand but secures peace for the Empire, albeit in a reduced state and where to go from there.
 
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