So, lets say that either Muhammad Zahir Shah or Muhammad Daoud Khan escape being couped (Zahir Shah by Daoud, Daoud by the Communists), and the Soviet intervention is thus butterflied. Afghanistan remains a poor, but reasonably stable country that most Americans have never heard of. My question is, what would the effects of No Afghan War in the 1980's be? Specifically:
The "jihad" in Afghanistan during the 1980's was immensely important in crystalization of radical Sunni Islam. It became a cause celebre in much of the Arab world, and many Islamic terrorist groups got their start there, and were inspired by the defeat of the "infidel" Soviets. IHMO without the Afghan war serving to bring every fundamentalist crazy in the Muslim world together and give them military experience, radical Islam would be much less important than OTL, and primarily focused on Palestine (the rise of Hamas was mostly driven by local conditions which probably won't change in this TL). Palestine, while important to many Arabs, would nevertheless probably not have attracted all the international recruits that Afghanistan did, so again, its unlikely we'd see anything like al-Qaida (which got its start as an organization to funnel Arab recruits and American weapons into Afghanistan), and thus no 9/11 and War on Terror.
Also, many Pashtoons in Afghanistan want to break away Pashtoon-majority parts of Pakistan (specifically, the Northwest Frontier Province, the Federally Administered Tribal areas and the northern half of-or if you have a real loony, the entirety of-Baluchistan province*) and merge them into a "Greater Afghanistan". Even the government of Afghanistan used to beat this drum in the 1950's and 1960's, to the detrement of relations with Pakistan. Being on the rocks with Pakistan typically forced Afghanistan to make nice with India. Pakistan supported the Taliban in the 1990's (and many would argue, continues to support them now) to ensure that the regime in Kabul is not overly hostile to Pakistan like it was in the past (and even today-the relationship between Karzai and Pakistan hasn't always been smooth)
So my question-in light of the above, how would a stable Afghanistan affect the Indo-Pakistani confrontations of the late 1990's-early 2000's? Would a potential Indian ally on its northern border make Pakistan less belicose (or more belicose)?
Also, I've heard that the massive resource drain of the Afghan war contributed to the fall of the USSR-is there any truth to this? Would a USSR that didn't have to fight in Afghanistan last longer than OTL?
*Map. The Northwest Frontier province is 2, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas are 6, and Baluchistan is 1
The "jihad" in Afghanistan during the 1980's was immensely important in crystalization of radical Sunni Islam. It became a cause celebre in much of the Arab world, and many Islamic terrorist groups got their start there, and were inspired by the defeat of the "infidel" Soviets. IHMO without the Afghan war serving to bring every fundamentalist crazy in the Muslim world together and give them military experience, radical Islam would be much less important than OTL, and primarily focused on Palestine (the rise of Hamas was mostly driven by local conditions which probably won't change in this TL). Palestine, while important to many Arabs, would nevertheless probably not have attracted all the international recruits that Afghanistan did, so again, its unlikely we'd see anything like al-Qaida (which got its start as an organization to funnel Arab recruits and American weapons into Afghanistan), and thus no 9/11 and War on Terror.
Also, many Pashtoons in Afghanistan want to break away Pashtoon-majority parts of Pakistan (specifically, the Northwest Frontier Province, the Federally Administered Tribal areas and the northern half of-or if you have a real loony, the entirety of-Baluchistan province*) and merge them into a "Greater Afghanistan". Even the government of Afghanistan used to beat this drum in the 1950's and 1960's, to the detrement of relations with Pakistan. Being on the rocks with Pakistan typically forced Afghanistan to make nice with India. Pakistan supported the Taliban in the 1990's (and many would argue, continues to support them now) to ensure that the regime in Kabul is not overly hostile to Pakistan like it was in the past (and even today-the relationship between Karzai and Pakistan hasn't always been smooth)
So my question-in light of the above, how would a stable Afghanistan affect the Indo-Pakistani confrontations of the late 1990's-early 2000's? Would a potential Indian ally on its northern border make Pakistan less belicose (or more belicose)?
Also, I've heard that the massive resource drain of the Afghan war contributed to the fall of the USSR-is there any truth to this? Would a USSR that didn't have to fight in Afghanistan last longer than OTL?
*Map. The Northwest Frontier province is 2, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas are 6, and Baluchistan is 1
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