Ramifications of a neutral or allied aligned Bulgaria in WW1?

Pretty much what the title says, what if allied diplomats had been successful in either keeping Bulgaria neutral or winning it over completely to their camp? How would this have affected the other powers involved in the war, and how might the outcome of the final peace settlements change for everyone? Does the war end any quicker?
 

Cook

Banned
Had Bulgaria joined the Entente side it would have recreated the alliance from the First Balkan War with Greece, Macedonia and Serbia. It’s most likely target would have been Turkey instead of Serbia, with the objective of taking Thrace and Constantinople. The problem for the British and French with making offers to Bulgaria was that Russia already had Constantinople as its’ war aim. Constantinople was the grand prize for everyone in the Balkans and Black Sea area.

It would depend on when Bulgaria entered the war on the allied side if they did chose to do so. The Turks, even after they’d sealed an alliance with Bulgaria, had been so concerned that the Bulgarians would attack them that they’d kept their best army corps stationed in Turkish Thrace against the threat of a surprise attack. It was only after Bulgaria entered the war in October 1915 that the Turks felt secure enough to release those units for operations elsewhere.

Certainly allied aid via Salonika could have been channelled to the Bulgarians, how much and how quickly would be an interesting question.
 

elkarlo

Banned
Had Bulgaria joined the Entente side it would have recreated the alliance from the First Balkan War with Greece, Macedonia and Serbia. It’s most likely target would have been Turkey instead of Serbia, with the objective of taking Thrace and Constantinople. The problem for the British and French with making offers to Bulgaria was that Russia already had Constantinople as its’ war aim. Constantinople was the grand prize for everyone in the Balkans and Black Sea area.

It would depend on when Bulgaria entered the war on the allied side if they did chose to do so. The Turks, even after they’d sealed an alliance with Bulgaria, had been so concerned that the Bulgarians would attack them that they’d kept their best army corps stationed in Turkish Thrace against the threat of a surprise attack. It was only after Bulgaria entered the war in October 1915 that the Turks felt secure enough to release those units for operations elsewhere.

Certainly allied aid via Salonika could have been channelled to the Bulgarians, how much and how quickly would be an interesting question.

What do you think that would do to Romania's decision? They sat on the fence as hard as they could.
 

Deleted member 1487

What do you think that would do to Romania's decision? They sat on the fence as hard as they could.

It would push them into the allied camp. It was Bulgarian entry on the CP side that delayed Romanian entry into the war OTL.
But Bulgaria has no reason to join the Entente, because there is nothing that they have to offer them. All the territory they want is either already claimed by Russia, held by Serbia, Greece, or by Romania. Germany offered all that AND money. AND they made good on their offer by having Turkey cede territory to Bulgaria before it entered the war.
The Entente couldn't get Serbia to negotiate about its territory to bring Bulgaria to its rescue.
 

The Turks, even after they’d sealed an alliance with Bulgaria, had been so concerned that the Bulgarians would attack them that they’d kept their best army corps stationed in Turkish Thrace against the threat of a surprise attack. It was only after Bulgaria entered the war in October 1915 that the Turks felt secure enough to release those units for operations elsewhere.

Certainly allied aid via Salonika could have been channelled to the Bulgarians, how much and how quickly would be an interesting question.

Do you have a source for that? It seems rather unlikely to me.
 
I don't have a source, but it actually is quite likely, given the legacy of the Balkan wars (especially the 1st) and Bulgaria's territorial ambitions. Hell, even without the Bulgarian flank secure, you've still got a potentially dangerous Greece, and the entente that could attempt an attack via Bulgaria without Bulgaria officially entering the war (much like the Salonika landings). As has been said, capturing Constantinople would have been a massive prestige boost, in addition to probably bringing the Ottomans to the peace table, and securing a black sea passage to Russia (if the entente could have de-mined the straits too..).

Given entente naval superiority, it also makes sense (I think) to keep your best men somewhere where they could act defensively quickly against a powerful aggressor. Without Bulgaria, there is no land link to the rest of the Central powers either, thus no way to receive any kind of reinforcement from the other powers, no matter how marginal, if their had been an attack on Constantinople.
 

Cook

Banned
Do you have a source for that? It seems rather unlikely to me.
You’re kidding right? Practically every book on Turkey’s involvement in World War One covers it:

Thirteen Days by Clive Ponting.

Gallipoli by Alan Moorehead.

Gallipoli: The Ottoman Campaign by Edward Erikson.

From Eden to Armageddon by Roger Ford.

In addition to which, when the Gallipoli crisis was at its’ height and the government in Constantinople panicked and began evacuating the city and making plans to burn it down, Von Sanders wanted to withdraw to Adrianople. This was vetoed by Enver Pasha because if its closeness to the Bulgarian border and the fear that they’d take advantage of the Turk collapse and attack; the government evacuated across the Bosporus instead.
 

elkarlo

Banned
It would push them into the allied camp. It was Bulgarian entry on the CP side that delayed Romanian entry into the war OTL.
But Bulgaria has no reason to join the Entente, because there is nothing that they have to offer them. All the territory they want is either already claimed by Russia, held by Serbia, Greece, or by Romania. Germany offered all that AND money. AND they made good on their offer by having Turkey cede territory to Bulgaria before it entered the war.
The Entente couldn't get Serbia to negotiate about its territory to bring Bulgaria to its rescue.


Oh yeah, I understand that the Entente had almost nothing to offer Bulgaria. Just wondering who would swing the opposite way just to spite Bulgaria, or would they all ho on like in the first Balkan war?
 
You’re kidding right? Practically every book on Turkey’s involvement in World War One covers it:

Thirteen Days by Clive Ponting.

Gallipoli by Alan Moorehead.

Gallipoli: The Ottoman Campaign by Edward Erikson.

From Eden to Armageddon by Roger Ford.

In addition to which, when the Gallipoli crisis was at its’ height and the government in Constantinople panicked and began evacuating the city and making plans to burn it down, Von Sanders wanted to withdraw to Adrianople. This was vetoed by Enver Pasha because if its closeness to the Bulgarian border and the fear that they’d take advantage of the Turk collapse and attack; the government evacuated across the Bosporus instead.
Thanks for the sources. I was skeptical as I remember reading somewhere that the Bulgarian army did discuss attacking the Ottoman Empire because of the weakness of the Ottoman Army in Turkish Thrace, though the king who had already decided to join the Central powers overruled. But I suppose that I might have remembered it incorrectly.
 
It would push them into the allied camp. It was Bulgarian entry on the CP side that delayed Romanian entry into the war OTL.
But Bulgaria has no reason to join the Entente, because there is nothing that they have to offer them. All the territory they want is either already claimed by Russia, held by Serbia, Greece, or by Romania. Germany offered all that AND money. AND they made good on their offer by having Turkey cede territory to Bulgaria before it entered the war.
The Entente couldn't get Serbia to negotiate about its territory to bring Bulgaria to its rescue.

Well, if there is absolutely no way for them to join the entente, then what if they decided to play it safe and stick to neutrality? (I'm assuming that is something more realistic though I could be wrong.)

I mean Cook already pointed out it would slightly hamper the Ottomans, and obviously the Serbia campaign would be much more difficult for the central powers. Does this mean Austria Hungary is in a lot more trouble too?
 
Well, if there is absolutely no way for them to join the entente, then what if they decided to play it safe and stick to neutrality? (I'm assuming that is something more realistic though I could be wrong.)

I mean Cook already pointed out it would slightly hamper the Ottomans, and obviously the Serbia campaign would be much more difficult for the central powers. Does this mean Austria Hungary is in a lot more trouble too?
Slightly hamper the Ottomans? If it was carried out during the Galipoli operation it could easily lead to their total defeat in Europe. The situation would be similar to the one in the First Balkan war but with more disadvantages for the Ottomans.

As for neutrality, it's certainly possible. It's more difficult to say whether it would last if the Central Powers demanded passage to the Ottoman Empire after defeat Serbia.
 
Guys

While joining the central powers is the most obvious for Bulgaria I think joining the allies is possible. It would take a lot of diplomatic pressure and skilled footing. The way I would be tempted to go about it would be to point out the three options:

a) Join the central powers. Means they can get the land they want from Serbia but relies on that side winning the war. If you can raise enough doubt about this then Bulgaria may consider otherwise.

b) Staying neutral. Avoids a bloodbath but also means that whoever wins is probably indifferent at best. If the allies win Serbia is likely to be a lot stronger so the chance to gain the disputed Macedonian lands will be gone. If the central powers win possibly Bulgaria can gain something but more likely the Ottomans will be favoured.

c) Joining the allies. If so they could gain three things.
i) While the straits have been promised to Russia Bulgaria could gain the bulk of E Thrace, including Adrianople.
ii) Extensive military and economic aid. Britain has extensive funds and Bulgaria could wage a quick war, with allied support against the Ottomans alone then sit back with only nominal commitments against the other two central powers.
iii) Political support for referendums on the disputed territorial areas. [Which by most sources I've read were predominately Bulgarian in identity]. Serbia, which will have to continue fighting on against the Austrians is likely to be weakened. Given the Serbian inspired assassination which triggered the war it could be made clear that if Serbia refused then the allies would at least stay neutral in a future conflict over the region.

I would suggest such an approach be made by Britain, with the other allies supporting, shortly after the Gallipoli campaign starts. As Dementor said Bulgarian entry then would probably force the rapid collapse of the Ottoman position in Europe and very likely the fall of the junta and a negotiated peace.

The advantage of joining the allies is that it virtually ensures being on the winning side. Austria and Germany are not even in touch with Bulgaria so can't threaten it and re-opening the straits would make their defeat pretty certain. The immediate gains, in E Thrace are smaller but certain and there are changes to make others later on.

Anyway, that would be the way I would try and sell an alliance to the Bulgarians.

Steve

PS With Russia and Britain safeguarding their borders and gains this would also removed the danger of the other potential threat to Bulgaria, of the Romanians attacking them as they did in 1913.
 
Best PoD would be prior to the Second Balkan War. The Great Powers (some of them, at least) tell Romania to stay the fuck out of it and forget the whole Silistra business (really stupid bit of opportunistic adventurism on the part of Romania, there). This way, Bulgaria won't have a casus belli against her immediate neighbour and could prove much easier to sway towards the Entente cause with some bits of Thrace.
 
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