Ramifications of a German WW1 victory

Recently I began working on a timeline for the world had Germany won the first World War. For this thread I would prefer to discuss the world and the events that take place after the German victory in WW1. As for how the Germans won, let us say that the death of Woodrow Wilson in 1914 combined with a succsessful Kaiserslacht Offensive allowed for a German victory. My first two questions are: 1) had Germany achieved such a victory would it be reasonable to assume that the remaining Entente powers would ratify the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk? and 2) would Imperial Germany be able to keep its prewar colonies? I realize that the Japanese had taken its Chinese Treaty ports, so would it be possible/feasible for Germany maintain control of, say, German New Guinea and its African posessions? Lastly my final question is whether the Kaiser would be able to stay in power, and whether Imperial Germnay would be able to remain a monarchy, perhaps not a Federal one as before the war?
 
Recently I began working on a timeline for the world had Germany won the first World War. For this thread I would prefer to discuss the world and the events that take place after the German victory in WW1. As for how the Germans won, let us say that the death of Woodrow Wilson in 1914 combined with a succsessful Kaiserslacht Offensive allowed for a German victory. My first two questions are: 1) had Germany achieved such a victory would it be reasonable to assume that the remaining Entente powers would ratify the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk? and 2) would Imperial Germany be able to keep its prewar colonies? I realize that the Japanese had taken its Chinese Treaty ports, so would it be possible/feasible for Germany maintain control of, say, German New Guinea and its African posessions? Lastly my final question is whether the Kaiser would be able to stay in power, and whether Imperial Germnay would be able to remain a monarchy, perhaps not a Federal one as before the war?

Germany could probably hang on to Tangyanika, and maybe Kamerun if they win quick enough, but the others are gone, never to be returned.
 
If the choice is between keeping colonies and sacrificing territory at home then the colonies will be given to Germany in a heartbeat.
 
My first two questions are: 1) had Germany achieved such a victory would it be reasonable to assume that the remaining Entente powers would ratify the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk?

Well, there's not much they can do about it so they'll have to suck it up.

2) would Imperial Germany be able to keep its prewar colonies? I realize that the Japanese had taken its Chinese Treaty ports, so would it be possible/feasible for Germany maintain control of, say, German New Guinea and its African posessions?

No, at least not for the ones in the possession of Britain and Japan. The British are going to want those to save face and claim they didn't truly lose, and the Germans have no way of forcing them out. For the Japanese those colonies were the entire point of ever entering the war to begin with, and again the Germans have no way to ever get them back. The French will give up some of their colonies if it gets them a better peace deal at home.

Lastly my final question is whether the Kaiser would be able to stay in power, and whether Imperial Germnay would be able to remain a monarchy, perhaps not a Federal one as before the war?

Possibly. The office of Emperor would be discredited and have massively reduced power tho. Maybe Willy would have to abdicate in favor of his heir?
 
Okay interesting. So in response then I would ask what the chances of a scenario like the following occuring. Germany, realizing that due to war weariness and the sheer size of the lands obtained through Brest-Litovsk makes them impossible to hold, establishes an "Empire of the Ukraine" containining the lands taken from Russia, including the Crimea and the Ukraine itself. As Tsar Nicholas is dead, they invite his brother in law, Alexander Mikhailovich, to be Tsar of the Ukraine. As for the Baltic States, they are established as German client states, and Poland itself is annexed entirely. Also, Wilhelm steps down and his son becomes Kaiser Wilhelm III. Outside of Europe Germany is able to keep Kamerun. Is this scenario plausible? and what effects would this have on the world at large? For instance would the Soviet Union be a possibility, as the Empire of Ukraine could be a home for discontented Russians, and a staging base for the White Army.
 
Also if Wilhelm III allowed for reforms and enacted Polish friendly legislation, would it be possible for Imperial Germany to keep control of Poland to modern day?

Not sure - but if they are friendly to the Polish yet manage to maintain a quick paced germanization program (aka benefits for speaking german, etc), they might be able to do it. :S or else it could be like Quebec and the Rest of Canada.
 
I see the German army marching on Paris and bringing the war to an end. Germany annexes all of the French colonies in Africa and Southeast Asia, demoralizing it considerably. Britain and Germany sign an armistice eventually.

There are significant political uprisings from the Slavic peoples of eastern Europe in Germany's newly acquired territory from the Russian Empire. They are put down with brutal forces through the early 1920s. Without American entry into World War I, there probably is not Great Depression on the scale OTL.

Eventually the Soviet Union still forms out of the ruins of Russia and becomes engaged with Germany in a regional arms race which eventually spills over into a new war during the 1930s as Russia tries to reclaim its former territory lost in The Great War. The western allies may support Germany, but the war will end in attrition.

Democracy really does not rise in Europe like OTL and most governments have some level of monarchy in them. Colonialism takes more than OTL to end.
 
Germany, realizing that due to war weariness and the sheer size of the lands obtained through Brest-Litovsk makes them impossible to hold, establishes an "Empire of the Ukraine" containining the lands taken from Russia, including the Crimea and the Ukraine itself. As Tsar Nicholas is dead, they invite his brother in law, Alexander Mikhailovich, to be Tsar of the Ukraine.

Don't think they'd want a Romanov. They were incredibly unpopular by this point and it's not like Germany has any specific interest in keeping them around. They'd just use one of the German aristocratic families. Oh, and it would definitely be a Kingdom. No reason to give the ruler of a puppet state the same title as the ruler of Germany itself. Gotta make it clear who's in charge here. :p

As for the Baltic States, they are established as German client states, and Poland itself is annexed entirely.

Think the reverse is more likely. There had always been a German aristocratic upper class in the Baltics, and the native population is pretty small and unlikely to be much trouble. The Germans could just appoint someone Duke and have them reign with the support of Baltic Germans as the newest Duchy within the Empire. Meanwhile, Poland is pretty big and the Poles had always been a bother, so they could just set up a puppet Kingdom of Poland. They may even entertain the thought of expelling all the German Poles to go live there, thereby 'resolving' the issue once and for all.

You may also wish to consider what the Germans would do with Belgium and France. Or what happens to Austria-Hungary; by the end of the war it was a hollow shell propped up entirely by Germany.
 

RavenMM

Banned
No, at least not for the ones in the possession of Britain and Japan. The British are going to want those to save face and claim they didn't truly lose, and the Germans have no way of forcing them out. For the Japanese those colonies were the entire point of ever entering the war to begin with, and again the Germans have no way to ever get them back. The French will give up some of their colonies if it gets them a better peace deal at home.

As long as Germany leaves Belgium alone at the end of the war, the german colonies will be bargaining chips for the british. Or do you really think they would see it as a victory if the cchannel coast was in german hands?
 
As long as Germany leaves Belgium alone at the end of the war, the german colonies will be bargaining chips for the british. Or do you really think they would see it as a victory if the cchannel coast was in german hands?

I do not think the Germans would leave Belgium no matter what parts of Africa Britain offers them. What colony could be worth giving up a free highway into France and direct access to the channel? And I did not say the British would see it as a victory; I said they'd point to their territorial expansion to save face.
 
Okay interesting. So in response then I would ask what the chances of a scenario like the following occuring. Germany, realizing that due to war weariness and the sheer size of the lands obtained through Brest-Litovsk makes them impossible to hold, establishes an "Empire of the Ukraine" containining the lands taken from Russia, including the Crimea and the Ukraine itself. As Tsar Nicholas is dead, they invite his brother in law, Alexander Mikhailovich, to be Tsar of the Ukraine. As for the Baltic States, they are established as German client states, and Poland itself is annexed entirely. Also, Wilhelm steps down and his son becomes Kaiser Wilhelm III. Outside of Europe Germany is able to keep Kamerun. Is this scenario plausible? and what effects would this have on the world at large? For instance would the Soviet Union be a possibility, as the Empire of Ukraine could be a home for discontented Russians, and a staging base for the White Army.

Situation in the East:

Well, the treaty of Brest-Litovsk in OTL recognized Finland, the Ukraine and Georgia as independent states.
According to what I remember, Germany had hopes for a German King in Finland. Although his role would probably be more like the Swedish King. Restricted in a constitutional monarchy.
The Ukraine including the Crimea. Independent from Russia but I can´t see a Romanov as King.
More probable is either a local noble, an Austrian or Bulgarian (Orthodox faith like the Russians) one. I´d guess an Austrian one converting?
Georgia probably will be mostly left alone for now. Especially as access is only possible from the Ottoman Empire. Later on, in case of a civil war, Baku might be tempting....
The Baltic states. Probably unified into a Baltic Duchy with a German noble as Duke and Head of State.
Poland. There is no way that Germany will annex Poland! It would simply add to many Poles to Germany. An independent Kingdom of Poland (maybe slightly enlarged with parts of Belarus) sounds more likely. With a German or Austrian Catholic noble as King.
(I believe in OTL Austria-Hungary pushed for that solution.)

Now I wrote "independent states". Nominally they will be independent of course. But with defense and trade treaties tying them to Germany. With the threat of a still existing Russia in the East, the Germans won´t even need to resort to pressure themselves.

Situation in the West:

The situation here is a lot more complicated. Even if the Kaiserschlacht was totally successful here, nothing can be done about the Royal Navy.
Likewise the British in early 1918 are occupying large parts of the Ottoman Empire (Germany pre-war was interested in oil exploration in the Kirkuk area).
And we haven´t even mentioned Austria-Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania and Italy yet. :)
Or Japan in Asia.
So any peace treaty here will be a compromise.

The British (and Americans) will insist on an independent and whole Belgium. And they´ll try to limit the damage to France as much as possible.
And given that Germany is exhausted --> compromise peace.

German colonies occupied by Japan are lost. No way to get them back.
Likewise it would be awkward for Britain to tell South Africa (German South West Africa) and Australia / New Zealand (German Pacific possessions not occupied by Japan) to please give all back. Then there is German East Africa. Needed by the British for their Cairo - Cape Town railway but German colonial troops under Lettow-Vorbeck are still fighting. Making things difficult for Germany too.
German Cameroon (occupied by France) and Togo (divided between France and Britain) on the other hand are easy to give back to Germany.

So you´ll have a lot of possibilities here.
Like for example:

  • Independent Belgium with its colony of Congo as a concession from Germany and in return the Ottoman Empire keeps Lebanon, Syria and Northern Iraq for example.
  • The Germans not getting back all their pre-war colonies --> Germany gets back Togo and Cameroon plus some former French colonies as compensation. Maybe throw in some Pacific islands.
  • Japan pays a symbolic low price for the occupied German colonies, Germany pays a symbolic compensation to Belgium.
  • France gets to keep its Briey-Longwy iron ore mines and Luxembourg becomes a member of the German Empire.
  • De-militarized zones in the French (raze the fortress of Verdun and Belfort) border regions against ...?
  • And as I said above, you´ll still get to play with Austria-Hungary, the Balkans, Italy...
Domestic situation in Germany:

I simply can´t see Wilhelm II abdicating right now. It might happen once the political situation in Germany becomes "difficult" which will happen very soon after the war.
Quiet frankly, by 1917/18 the Emperor was seen as a joke. Rear echelon battlefield tourist not doing anything. Now politically there will be a push in Germany for a more constitutional monarchy, limiting the political powers of the Emperor. It´s possible that Wilhelm II might abdicate in a temper tantrum then when he discovers that no one is willing to defend his "God given right to rule". So Wilhelm III is a definite possibility then.

Effects on the world at large:

The Germans will do a 180 degree turn-around and support anyone who fights against the Bolsheviks. And with WW1 ended they´ll have lots of surplus military equipment. Plus military advisers.

I could see France and Italy becoming instable after a lost WW1.
Having sacrificed so much for no reward...

The Great Depression - if it happens - would also be very different.
In OTL Weimar Germany needed (short-term) American loans to pay reparations to Britain and France. Who then used the reparations to pay back their war loans from the USA. Simplified version.
So the Wall Street crash in 1929 immediately affected Europe when American banks called in their short term loans and refused to give out new loans.

Here Germany will face a period of higher inflation after the war since Imperial Germany will have to pay back their domestic war loans. On the other hand we´ll have four war years of suppressed domestic consumption so higher tax returns might pay for some of the war loans.
Most importantly though the middle class in Germany won´t be impoverished.

And another thing.
A victorious Germany won´t loose its foreign investments (properties, subsidiaries, patents, trademarks) in Entente countries and neutrals. That should help the German economy quite a bit.

So any Wall Street crash probably will affect Germany less than in OTL.

The Entente (Britain and France) will have to pay back their war loans to the USA. Up to 1917 these loans were secured with Entente property.
In OTL after the American DoW new loans were guaranteed by the US government and no longer needed collateral. I seem to remember that by late 1917 even Britain had run out of available collateral?

Additionally Britain made war loans to France, Belgium, Russia, Serbia and later on Italy. I suspect Britain might be a bit worried about these loans now?
 
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