Railroads Plausibility Check: Fold Rock Island and Milwaukee Road into Conrail

[Robinsml]

Would it have been possible to fold the Rock Island and the Milwaukee Road into Conrail in the late 1970s? Assume that all of the Milwaukee's Pacific Extension is included. Alternately, instead of the original Conrail, set up a "Western Conrail" as a separate nationalized company to handle the Rock and the Milwaukee.

If such a thing happens, I can see the Pacific Extension becoming a force that BN (and later BNSF) would have to reckon with. Also, the combined railroad would have Gulf Coast access, but not quite what BNSF or UP has.

"One Big Conrail" incorporating the Rock Island and Milwaukee would probably be seen as a threat by other railroads as it would be a coast-to-coast transcontinental. Barring a "Western Conrail", I could see such a railroad operating under artificial constraints.

What would happen to such a company in the 80s? Conrail privatized in 1987 and held out until the late 90s when they were divvied up between Norfolk Southern and CSX. Would we have a similar privatization with Western Conrail? Does BNSF and UP start trying to pick apart a Western Conrail the same way that NS and CSX did with the original Conrail?

One thing for sure, a Western Conrail would be a money sink in the same way Conrail was. Both the Pacific Extension and almost all of the Rock Island was in pretty bad shape. Many of the original Rock Island and Milwaukee Road lines in the midwest would probably be spun off to shortlines or abandoned.

What do you think?

-Mark

 

[marathag]

there is a chance for one, but not both to be part of an expanded Conrail

 

[Kevin C. Smith]

Hopefully, this isn't late enough to count as a necro...

I could see a "Western Conrail" as the more likely possibility. The industry still hasn't crossed the Chicago/Saint Louis divide in any meaningful way. In the 1970's, it would be beyond the pale to establish a true transcontinental, even/especially under government ownership.

I don't know if it would affect the western mergers all that much, however. Putting the MILW and RI into a separate company takes them out of consideration as merger partners, but their OTL liquidation did pretty much the same thing, anyway. About the biggest immediate effect I can think of is that CP will not acquire "MILW 2", so will not spin off the SOO...which prevents CN's acquisition of it...which may butterfly CN's purchase of IC...and CP's (proposed) acquisition of KCS. UP is still going to merge with C&NW, though. The wild card here is the SP. They aren't going to get a crack at RI's eastern connections so will they pursue a merger with UP? The abortive SP+SOU proposal? Or have an OTL try at the ill-fated SP+AT&SF merger (and would the ICC/STB allow it TTL)? Can/does it stay independent? Where do the odd ones out (WP, D&RGW, KCS...maybe IC) end up?

If Western Conrail survives to be sold off, then the merger picture gets really interesting. Eastern (original) CR was a monopoly in its territory. Western (TTL) Conrail is not. You now have a 3 system east and a 3 or 4 system west. If 3/3, we might see some "true transcontinental" mergers happen, as everyone partners up 1 east + 1 west. If the mergers happen before the push to sell off either CR, then you might get them combined into a single entity to be sold off as a unit (ala CN). If there are 3 eastern and 4 western systems, maybe the eastern egg is still unscrambled to make things happen. If the OTL CSX/NS split occurs first, then we are back to an east/west balance at 4/4. Again, this may make cross country mergers more likely than the stalemate we seem to be in at present.

The possibility of unscrambling the western egg probably wouldn't look too much different than otl for the RI (everything from KC and StL south to whoever has/is SP-maybe even all the way to Chicago; everything north to UP via C&NW) but the MILW lines might have a few more options. BN won't get them, that's for sure. Might AT&SF, instead of merging with BN? Might UP, instead of WP/SP? Or as the western arm of one of the east/west mergers? If Pacific Rim import trade expands as OTL, it may become quite the catch for an eastern (CR, NS, CSX) railroad.

 

[marathag]

Another thing, 'The Rock' blue and white paint scheme that started in 1975 wasn't too far off from Conrail. It was known to Railfans as 'Bankruptcy Blue' with the new paint coinciding with that filing in March 1975. So it would fit into a Conrail formation at the start, to get freight west of Chicago to the rest of the new network.

 

[Fir Street]

Trackage rights on the Chicago Central ( Ex IC ) Omaha to Chicago

Passenger train service that still remains is sold to Amtrak
Like the Burlington Northern's sale of trackage to Montana Rail Link the Pacific Extension is sold to various railroads such as the Seattle and North Coast railroad
due to the Staggers Act (1970)
https://www.aar.org/article/freight-railroads-the-staggers-act-of-1980/

Equipment :
Locomotives :
Like the Santa Fe Railroad's CF7's and UP's SW10's all first generation loco's are rebuilt in house except for those traded in for new loco's or sold for scrap ( mounted in parks ) . Later these Loco's are Traded in ( Last one in service 1989)
Rolling stock
89 ft Flat cars for The Hiawatha Chicago- Seattle TOFC service ( renamed 2019 All Nighter ) and The Eskimo Seattle - Omaha ( 2019 ElK Express )
IDP box cars 50 & 60 ft to lease through subsidiary Rock financial industry's (RFIX)

The IPD Boxcar Boom

The term shortline fever was used to describe the movement that swept through the North American boxcar fleet beginning in 1978. An impe...

tracksidetreasure.blogspot.com

 

[Duke Andrew of Dank]

This new talk reminds me of how @TheMann had his TL's Conrail be what saves the ex-Milwaukee Road from extinction.

 

[Duke Andrew of Dank]

I don't know if it would affect the western mergers all that much, however. Putting the MILW and RI into a separate company takes them out of consideration as merger partners, but their OTL liquidation did pretty much the same thing, anyway. About the biggest immediate effect I can think of is that CP will not acquire "MILW 2", so will not spin off the SOO...which prevents CN's acquisition of it...which may butterfly CN's purchase of IC...and CP's (proposed) acquisition of KCS. UP is still going to merge with C&NW, though. The wild card here is the SP. They aren't going to get a crack at RI's eastern connections so will they pursue a merger with UP? The abortive SP+SOU proposal? Or have an OTL try at the ill-fated SP+AT&SF merger (and would the ICC/STB allow it TTL)? Can/does it stay independent? Where do the odd ones out (WP, D&RGW, KCS...maybe IC) end up?

On that front, what if the SP were to merger with Illinois Central for that desired Chicago connection? Or would that not make enough sense?

 

[Kevin C. Smith]

On that front, what if the SP were to merger with Illinois Central for that desired Chicago connection? Or would that not make enough sense?

Hmm. Interesting...

This would be an end-to-end merger, with no parallel lines. The main connection between the two would be SSW-IC in St. Louis, of course, but don't overlook the possibilities of other connections in New Orleans, Shreveport, and Memphis. Of the three, I think Shreveport may come in very handy to divert congestion away from St. Louis and the Thebes bridge in the 1990's. IC has a good St. Louis-Chicago line so that would offer a competitive route under common ownership with SP. With IC the perennial odd north-south line in an east-west world, there may not be many/any objections to a union of the two. It could be useful to building a healthy, independent SP.

 

[Quintuplicate]

Was Conrail a success OTL?

 

[dmg86]

Yes. It was privatized and later sold to other railroads which divided most of it.

 

[TheMann]

Yes. It was privatized and later sold to other railroads which divided most of it.

Stupidly, if you ask me. Conrail's success hasn't exactly been followed by NS or CSX as far as customers are concerned, particularly with the latter.

 

[dmg86]

The goverment only reluctantly took over the railroads because no one else wanted to or was able to do it. The alternative was a collapse of the rail industry in the Northeast. Many of the railroads were basket cases financially.

 

[DMCorp]

The problem with a western style Conrail is that you are creating a government backed railroad in the one area where railroading was still working as a private enterprise.
A Milwaukee-Rock Island merge creates a monster that no one wants. It would have routes everywhere but not be really competitive in its markets. Plus as it consumes cash in trying to rehabilitate its lines it would become a contender and none of the existing lines want that. The Northwestern in particular would crash if it happened unless the UP came to its rescue and that would be a matter of debate. One thing a M-RI forced merge would require is that one of the Chicago-Omaha lines would have to go. My bet is that the Milwaukee line would get the sale as the Rock line is much better placed for interchange with eastern lines and all that. Also on the table is what would the Missouri Pacific do? A rehabbed Rock is right in its back door knocking with a big stick. The movement of grain just went into the unknown with a line going from the major gain areas to both the gulf ports and the PNW ports. Granted the movement of grain west is just starting to go up but it would be there. Also when does the merge take place? If before 1980 then does the BN go after the Frisco? Or does it start eying the lines in the central corridor?(WP and DRGW). Both central lines are in a tough spot and can't stay independent for long. As for SP do they still want the Tucumcari line or the Choctaw route? Even if they get them will it be enough to keep the SP alive long enough to fix its problems that are just starting to creep up on it? As for the lines in the middle part of the US they are going to be pruned and hard. I would think that a short line startup program would be of value to keep routes open longer and not see so much chopping as happened in real life. Much to speculate on.