Radio communication post 1000 AD PoD

% post 1000 TLs with radio communnication

  • 5

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 10

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 25

    Votes: 2 20.0%
  • 50

    Votes: 1 10.0%
  • 75

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 90

    Votes: 3 30.0%
  • 95

    Votes: 4 40.0%

  • Total voters
    10
I would like to have an idea how useful setting the PoD on my crosstime transceiver to 1000 AD would be. What percentage of 1000 PoD TLs have developed radio communications by 2010?
 
Argument for low %
OTL took over 90% of the time from PoD to present to get radio communnication. For the first half of that time there was virtually no progress.
Argument for high %
Technology has been following an almost asymptotic curve for millennia. Slow progress gradually accelerating, then raridly acccelerating. Any curve starting from 1000 AD would closely parallel OTL.
 
There were many factors leading up to the Radio,but two are very clear:

Early mechanization in the 1400s due to a lack of slave power from slaves, the Industrial revolution in the 1850s due to new ideas of mass production.

The earlier mechanization was because of the Bubonic plague, which crippled Europe because of a severe lack of manpower, and a need for mechanization.
Any massive plague would result in a similar need for manpower. Hence, being channeled towards religion, after the hell their supposed diety had put the masses through, this could likely invoke something like the Reformation in Europe.

The Industrial revolution would be tougher to predict, as it was dependant upon mostly human decisions.
But that will likely follow such a route as OTL. Radio communication could be seen as early as 50 years after the ATL Industrial Revolution.

As long as there is a plague, a printing press, and an ensueing Industrial revolution, you could see radio communication. If a POD affects wither of those three things, radios will be less likely.
 
2010 is over a century later than radio's discovery OTL so you have potentially swept up many timelines with somewhat delayed discovery, as well as those with more advanced discovery of course.

Technology is often a logarithmic scale, rather than a linear one, since the development of earlier technologies accellerates that of later ones...

Sorry, my mind is leaking out of my ears as animals are having really stupid conversations on TV and I can't shut them out!

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
This is about as early as a crosstime transceiver would be useful. I would not be able to use the transmitting feature productively since the language would be so different...maybe a cheaper crosstime scanner. The best I could do is find which "kinds" of languages predominate...a "kind" of English, or a "kind" of Spanish, for example. This could reveal which 11th Century cultures came to predominate.
 
This is about as early as a crosstime transceiver would be useful. I would not be able to use the transmitting feature productively since the language would be so different...maybe a cheaper crosstime scanner. The best I could do is find which "kinds" of languages predominate...a "kind" of English, or a "kind" of Spanish, for example. This could reveal which 11th Century cultures came to predominate.

Right, I think I understand! But the statistical probability still exists, IMHO, 95 at least

Technology rarely crashes and given that it goes on, by 2010 most societies are going to have basic radio communication

If you look at OTL, it was being developed simultaneously by 2 or 3 different inventors/organisations so would have come about had one of them, eg Marconi, spontaneously combusted or dropped dead of an aneurism

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
so would have come about had one of them, eg Marconi, spontaneously combusted or dropped dead of an aneurism

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Maybe such a fate would convince people that radio is dangerous...even in OTL cell phones are accused of causing cancer, if not aneurisms, not to mention spontaneous human combustion :)
 
I would argue that this doesn't belong in ASB: it is the discussion of ordinary AH, though the metric proposed in the OP is based on an ASB situation.
 
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