racial integration in a United Party South Africa

You would see the Indians, Arabs, Chinese, and Cape Coloureds achieve equal status earlier as the United Party does what it can to keep power, increase support numbers, and defuse racial tensions. The problem of giving power to the black majority would not be realistic until at least the 60s (cultural shift as well as the belief that the black population needs to be educated/prepared) and by then, watching the horrors that came about in Uganda, Zaire, Central Africa, and elsewhere may give them pause, especially as the black population becomes militant. Very real fears of violence, property seizure, and oppression will have to be dealt with. Will we see early requirements such as certain education or economic requirements to be enfranchised used on the black population, possibly districts created to limit black representation? I think the 80s is the earliest large swaths of the black population will be allowed the vote and even that may be too positive an opinion.
 
South Africa is still going to have apartheid even in a less boar dominated nation. The Anglo whites and non-boars are not going to support majority rule in the 40s. Apartheid isn’t going to be as strict but it will still be there. Indians, Coloureds, and Asians might be given equality right away but not most of the black population. You probably see more Rhodesia type segregation. Military service and wealth requirements could be tied into the voting franchise. South Africa in this pod might allow more white immigration into South Africa to help close the racial gap. Basically, you have a less strict and more pragmatic minority government in South Africa.
 
South Africa is still going to have apartheid even in a less boar dominated nation. The Anglo whites and non-boars are not going to support majority rule in the 40s. Apartheid isn’t going to be as strict but it will still be there. Indians, Coloureds, and Asians might be given equality right away but not most of the black population. You probably see more Rhodesia type segregation. Military service and wealth requirements could be tied into the voting franchise. South Africa in this pod might allow more white immigration into South Africa to help close the racial gap. Basically, you have a less strict and more pragmatic minority government in South Africa.
Coloureds were seen as valuable allies against both communism and the African majority.
 
Coloureds were seen as valuable allies against both communism and the African majority.
People often forget mix race groups in 1800s and 1900s often tried to identify more with their white and European side then African or native ones. This made people like the Coloureds and other mix race groups good allies against Africans and natives.
 
The United Party advocated a race federation in which colored would represent themselves in parliament and Africans be represented by themselves in the provinces and whites in the federal parliament.
 
The United Party advocated a race federation in which colored would represent themselves in parliament and Africans be represented by themselves in the provinces and whites in the federal parliament.
That would still be a white dominated government. The white federal government could veto or overrule anything the provinces do when they feel it is needed. Coloreds would be the middle men. The system would just be more subtle then otl South Africa. Africans who work with the white government and assimilate will be rewarded while Africans who don’t are restricted to the lower class.
 
For Jan Smuts and the United Party to get re-elected in 1948, the POD would have to be more white immigration from the UK after World War II (or better yet the 1930s). If the British expatriate community is very receptive to the United Party, Smuts remains Prime Minister instead of Malan.
 
For Jan Smuts and the United Party to get re-elected in 1948, the POD would have to be more white immigration from the UK after World War II (or better yet the 1930s). If the British expatriate community is very receptive to the United Party, Smuts remains Prime Minister instead of Malan.
Wouldn’t white immigration be even more open then that? They might want to close the demographic gap as much as possible. This could mean they are pretty open to immigration with any Europeans. A lot more Italians and Germans could be moving in. South Africa could attract a lot of Europeans during the 40s and 50s with the US and other places not accepting as many people as they use to. But Anglo and Dutch immigrants probably get first picks and preference over everyone else.
 
For Jan Smuts and the United Party to get re-elected in 1948, the POD would have to be more white immigration from the UK after World War II (or better yet the 1930s). If the British expatriate community is very receptive to the United Party, Smuts remains Prime Minister instead of Malan.

You could have Rhodesia vote to be part of South Africa in 1922 too.


Coloureds/Griquas, Indians, Cape Malays, Chinese, and Arabs would get equal status with whites in a UP South Africa. Smuts and the UP were planning on opening up the country to mass immigration from the nations the Soviets conquered following the 1948 election as well.

The NP government OTL was opposed to non-Dutch immigration IIRC.

I can see South Africa TTL taking in the Asians of Uganda and the Portuguese of Angola and Mozambique.

That would still be a white dominated government. The white federal government could veto or overrule anything the provinces do when they feel it is needed. Coloreds would be the middle men. The system would just be more subtle then otl South Africa. Africans who work with the white government and assimilate will be rewarded while Africans who don’t are restricted to the lower class.

The United Party advocated a race federation in which colored would represent themselves in parliament and Africans be represented by themselves in the provinces and whites in the federal parliament.

If South Africa TTL is more similar to Rhodesia, I would figure there'd be some kind of franchise extended to affluent Africans. In Rhodesia franchise was by income, right?



What are the odds that by the 1990s South Africa transitions into majority rule?
 
You could have Rhodesia vote to be part of South Africa in 1922 too.


Coloureds/Griquas, Indians, Cape Malays, Chinese, and Arabs would get equal status with whites in a UP South Africa. Smuts and the UP were planning on opening up the country to mass immigration from the nations the Soviets conquered following the 1948 election as well.

The NP government OTL was opposed to non-Dutch immigration IIRC.

I can see South Africa TTL taking in the Asians of Uganda and the Portuguese of Angola and Mozambique.





If South Africa TTL is more similar to Rhodesia, I would figure there'd be some kind of franchise extended to affluent Africans. In Rhodesia franchise was by income, right?



What are the odds that by the 1990s South Africa transitions into majority rule?
I’m pretty sure it was income base but military service was also a other way of gaining voting rights in Rhodesia. That was at least the case with one of the Rhodesia governments. They reformed itself a bunch of times to try an get international recognition. I think Rhodesia in the 60s and 70s was income and service base on voting. What would the international reaction be to an voting franchise in South Africa based on income and military service especially later on? How would other nations view it and would majority rule or democratization still be pushed by the UN and other people internationally later on?
 
South Africa would likely be a very significant nation TTL, especially if they managed to get Rhodesia and Botswana, take in more immigrants, and avoid the HIV/AIDS Crisis.

South Africa: 58 million
Zimbabwe: 16.2 million
Namibia: 2.6 million
Botswana: 2.3 million
Rhodesian Emigre: ~300k in the mid-200s, although from the 50s to the 70s around 250k left.
White South African Emigre: ~900,000
Portuguese Africans: ~750,000 (Angola and Mozambique)
Asian Ugandans: ~40,000
Victims of AIDS: ~2million+ (???)
Other immigration: ~10million*
Natural growth boost**: ???


*I assume around 10 million because Australia, having had the White Australia Policy until 1973, managed to have 7million people immigrate since 1945.
**By Natural growth, I'm referring to children of Portuguese and other immigrants, boosted population growth due to better general health, children of people who died of HIV/AIDS, etc.
 
South Africa would likely be a very significant nation TTL, especially if they managed to get Rhodesia and Botswana, take in more immigrants, and avoid the HIV/AIDS Crisis.

South Africa: 58 million
Zimbabwe: 16.2 million
Namibia: 2.6 million
Botswana: 2.3 million
Rhodesian Emigre: ~300k in the mid-200s, although from the 50s to the 70s around 250k left.
White South African Emigre: ~900,000
Portuguese Africans: ~750,000 (Angola and Mozambique)
Asian Ugandans: ~40,000
Victims of AIDS: ~2million+ (???)
Other immigration: ~10million*
Natural growth boost**: ???


*I assume around 10 million because Australia, having had the White Australia Policy until 1973, managed to have 7million people immigrate since 1945.
**By Natural growth, I'm referring to children of Portuguese and other immigrants, boosted population growth due to better general health, children of people who died of HIV/AIDS, etc.
What percentage would the white population get to at most with increased immigration? Would they not change to majority rule until they are a majority? Also could the African population be way more effected by HIV/aids then the white or Asian populations? The government might not try to help poor Africans that much while trying a lot harder at protecting the rest of the population from it. What is the possible demographics of this nation?
 
What percentage would the white population get to at most with increased immigration? Would they not change to majority rule until they are a majority? Also could the African population be way more effected by HIV/aids then the white or Asian populations? The government might not try to help poor Africans that much while trying a lot harder at protecting the rest of the population from it. What is the possible demographics of this nation?

Under the Smuts/UP plan, blacks were to be represented in the national parliament by whites and coloureds, so I can't see the government treating blacks worse than OTL when they had no representation whatsoever. Plus TTL there'd be majority rule at the provincial level if what others in this thread say is correct.


If I had to guess, 15-20% of the population would be white TTL in the present day.
Another 10% would be coloureds (mixed-race persons).
3-4% would be Asians of varying stripes (Chinese, Indian, Malay, etc).
 
Under the Smuts/UP plan, blacks were to be represented in the national parliament by whites and coloureds, so I can't see the government treating blacks worse than OTL when they had no representation whatsoever. Plus TTL there'd be majority rule at the provincial level if what others in this thread say is correct.


If I had to guess, 15-20% of the population would be white TTL in the present day.
Another 10% would be coloureds (mixed-race persons).
3-4% would be Asians of varying stripes (Chinese, Indian, Malay, etc).
The government isn’t going to be shooting protesters or anything like that most of the time but they would probably treat the lower class and “non-uplifted” Africans poorly. Africans would have a chance at social mobility but under certain guidelines. Africans who conform to white standards and have at least middle class status would be provided with equality and political representation while the poor African majority does not get this. This group could still suffer from hiv/aids. The ironic nature of this system is the more white South Africa becomes the more it starts impacting the white population too if these laws apply to them as well. A bigger white population naturally means more poor whites in South Africa. The possible system they have in place in this pod might be intended for Africans but to avoid international criticism South Africa claims its system is “equality through opportunity” so they make it apply to everyone. Basically they become more and more plutocratic as time progresses.

Additionally, the white government could still be playing sides. For example, maybe the Bantu get equality before the Zulu because they are considered more loyal and less rebellious. Maybe you end up with a situation where Africans who identify as South African Blacks represent the African population who integrated with the white rule government to create a new multiracial but plutocratic society. People who identify as Zulu or anything like that could face discrimination within this society. The racial lines and conflict could become less intense and more open but certain ethnic conflicts could still be a problem.
 
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