Race to the Sea = Dardanelles Campaign

Except for Agamemnon and Lord Nelson the PDN of Channel Fleet mount 12" Mk IX which have considerably less range than the main batteries of 1st SG. Granted poor visibility might not let the KM make effective use of the range advantage on a specific occasion but still fighting a faster opponent which can out range you is not good.
 
Except for Agamemnon and Lord Nelson the PDN of Channel Fleet mount 12" Mk IX which have considerably less range than the main batteries of 1st SG. Granted poor visibility might not let the KM make effective use of the range advantage on a specific occasion but still fighting a faster opponent which can out range you is not good.

I agree, but don't think that the Scouting Force would want to slug it out with the CF pre dreads when the GF and other forces could get between it and the forward base at Dunkirk.
 
As we've established that the Germans winning The Race to the Sea means no Dardanelles Campaign because the OTL resources would be used to drive the Germans out of the Pas de Calais...

How does this affect the Mediterranean theatre in 1915?

TTL the Entente is probably offering the Italian Government and even bigger bribe to make them declare war on the Central Powers. However, as the Central Powers seem to be winning will the Italians remain neutral or declare ware on the Entente?

Meanwhile with no attempts to force the Dardanelles with pre-dreadnoughts and the subsequent Gallipoli landings the Ottomans can reinforce their armies in the Caucasus, Mesopotamia and Palestine. If they concentrated the forces released on Palestine could they have reached the Suez Canal? With the weaker Entente naval presence in the Mediterranean might Goeben and Breslau have made some sorties into that sea?
 
RN strength in the Med in 1914 was 3 battle cruisers, 4 heavy and 4 light cruisers and the 5th destroyer flotilla of 16 modern ships. I imagine that with the Pas de Calais in German hands those BCs would deploy home in late 14, maybe to cover the 2 BCs sent to the Falklands. That makes me think any offensive on land wouldn't involve an amphibious landing, perhaps an advance across the Sinai and up palestine like occred later.

How does the pre-war agreement for the British to defend the French channel coast change with German occupation down past Boulogne? The agreement saw the French battle squadron at Brest move to Toulon but a cruiser squadron remained to patrol the western channel. If this changes any French led moves in the Med will also be limited to those not needing a lot of ships.
 
No Dardanelles not only reduces the odds of Italy joining the Entente but it will also probably accelerate Bulgaria joining the Central Powers. Serbia is recovering from the epidemic and is sufficiently weakened that you might see a limited offensive by Bulgaria in Macedonia all by itself. This could result in an earlier Entente presence at Salonika. One consequence of this that often gets overlooked is that in early 1915 much of the Ottoman Army was concentrated in Thrace (First and Second Armies). This was primarily due to worries about Bulgaria joining the Entente and attacking them. Once Bulgaria joins the Central Powers those worries disappear freeing up the divisions in Thrace for use elsewhere.
 
RN strength in the Med in 1914 was 3 battle cruisers, 4 heavy and 4 light cruisers and the 5th destroyer flotilla of 16 modern ships. I imagine that with the Pas de Calais in German hands those BCs would deploy home in late 14, maybe to cover the 2 BCs sent to the Falklands.
That's what happened IOTL.

The 3 battle cruisers in the Mediterranean Fleet in August 1914 were Indomitable, Inflexible and Indefatigable which formed the Second Battle Squadron (2BCS).

Inflexible and Invincible were sent to the South Atlantic to hunt down Von Spee's squadron and Princess Royal was sent to the Caribbean in case the Germans went through the Panama Canal.

The rest of 2BCS (Indomitable and Indefatigable) was in the Grand Fleet by January 1915. New Zealand joined in January 1915 and Australia in February. Indomitable and New Zealand formed 2BCS at the Battle of the Dogger Bank on 23rd January 1915.
 
No Dardanelles not only reduces the odds of Italy joining the Entente but it will also probably accelerate Bulgaria joining the Central Powers. Serbia is recovering from the epidemic and is sufficiently weakened that you might see a limited offensive by Bulgaria in Macedonia all by itself. This could result in an earlier Entente presence at Salonika. One consequence of this that often gets overlooked is that in early 1915 much of the Ottoman Army was concentrated in Thrace (First and Second Armies). This was primarily due to worries about Bulgaria joining the Entente and attacking them. Once Bulgaria joins the Central Powers those worries disappear freeing up the divisions in Thrace for use elsewhere.
It could butterfly the Salonika Front away completely. The troops sent there IOTL might be sent to the Western Front instead.

Also with the British pre-dreadnoughts in the English Channel the Ottoman Fleet with Goeben and their handful of pre-dreadnoughts might be able to dominate the Aegean Sea.
 
That's what happened IOTL.

The 3 battle cruisers in the Mediterranean Fleet in August 1914 were Indomitable, Inflexible and Indefatigable which formed the Second Battle Squadron (2BCS).

Inflexible and Invincible were sent to the South Atlantic to hunt down Von Spee's squadron and Princess Royal was sent to the Caribbean in case the Germans went through the Panama Canal.

The rest of 2BCS (Indomitable and Indefatigable) was in the Grand Fleet by January 1915. New Zealand joined in January 1915 and Australia in February. Indomitable and New Zealand formed 2BCS at the Battle of the Dogger Bank on 23rd January 1915.

True, but with all of those moves ended with the 5th Battle squadron plus some cats and dogs in the Med by February - March 15. ITTL the 5th BS won't be going to the Med so all that's left are the OTL cats and dogs (including the QE) unless these are also sent to the Channel Fleet.
 
could butterfly the Salonika Front away completely. The troops sent there IOTL might be sent to the Western Front instead.

IIUC the western front will be significantly shorter than OTL which might limit the number of units which can be deployed there, particularly by the time OTL Salonika occurred.
 
IIUC the western front will be significantly shorter than OTL which might limit the number of units which can be deployed there, particularly by the time OTL Salonika occurred.
I didn't think of that. However, if true it cuts both ways by limiting the number of units the Germans can deploy too. Some of them would be needed to cover the longer coastline against Entente landings, but the balance would be available as a strategic reserve or to send to other fronts.
 
I didn't think of that. However, if true it cuts both ways by limiting the number of units the Germans can deploy too. Some of them would be needed to cover the longer coastline against Entente landings, but the balance would be available as a strategic reserve or to send to other fronts.

Even without any naval contributions I think holding Pas de Calais would be a strategic win for Germany in terms of resources consumed. The longer coastline will require more guns, but some of these will 'come' from the shorter trenchline and will consume a tiny fraction of ammunition that a gun in the trenches would, nor will it be subject to being destroyed by counter battery fire or overrun. The same applies to infantry, more will be required but some will 'come' from the OTL trenches and can be lower quality Land/Seewehr unit who won't be killed by H&I fire and patrols in ni man's land week after week.

No of this is as interesting as destroyer flotillas fighting night battles, but it is just as likely to win the war for Germany.
 
I would see the Naval Corps being expanded to an Armee Abteilung and assigned the task of guarding the Pas de Calais. In addition to the 2 Naval divisions there were would an independent Landwehr Brigade permanently assigned.. However there would also be 2-3 more divisions stationed as a close reserve. These would be divisions from the Western Front that have taken very heavy losses. They would be rotated into the Pas de Calais for a few months to recover and rebuild.
 
The 2nd Marine division was formed in late 1914 so 1 division could man the 50km of coastal defences and the other the trenches where the line met the sea. A 3rd division was formed in 1917, but I don't know what its role was.

I think that if the Germans won the Race to the Sea both Marine divisions would man the much longer coastal defences and the 3rd division would be raised years earlier. Perhaps if the marines had to man a section of trenches it would be a very small section, perhaps a brigade rather than a division section.
 
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