Here's the problem: Britain genuinely believed, up until the very end, that the majority of the population was loyal, and just hijacked by radical extremists. The consensus was that in the south especially they would be greeted as liberators from an unjust government; and while many thought that the land north of the Potomac would be lost, the south is a different story.
....snip...
I've read that at the start of the ARW the population was about 45% Patriot, 25% Loyalist and 30% neither. How did these numbers change as the war progressed?
I've also heard that Patriot control of the Militia meant that they controlled the hinterlands and thus had a viable government in the countryside where most people lived. But the Patriots couldn't control the militia without significant support of the population, I'd guess more than 45%.