Quick Union win, how long does slavery last

As I understand it the first battle of Bull Run/ Manasses could have gone the other way.

WI There had been a Union triumph there and Richmond fell and the Confderacy collapsed what would happen.

Lincoln hated slavery and wanted to prevent its spread. He (almost certainly correctly) took the view that in normal circumstances und the then Constitution the Federal government could not do anything about it in States.

So what would happen?
 
As I understand it the first battle of Bull Run/ Manasses could have gone the other way.

WI There had been a Union triumph there and Richmond fell and the Confderacy collapsed what would happen.

Lincoln hated slavery and wanted to prevent its spread. He (almost certainly correctly) took the view that in normal circumstances und the then Constitution the Federal government could not do anything about it in States.

So what would happen?

An immediate Emancipation Declaration in these circumstances would have seemed to justify all of the South's fears about Lincoln. While the Abolitionist wing of the GOP would be expecting/demanding it, the Whig wing would not be, not with such a quick victory. And the Democrats, even War Democrats, would be staunchly against it. One of the problems with a quick Unionist victory is that the South would not FEEL beaten, only that the North had been "lucky" (essentially true). Which could mean the whole thing starts all over again after Lincoln leaves office.
 
An immediate Emancipation Declaration in these circumstances would have seemed to justify all of the South's fears about Lincoln. While the Abolitionist wing of the GOP would be expecting/demanding it, the Whig wing would not be, not with such a quick victory. And the Democrats, even War Democrats, would be staunchly against it. One of the problems with a quick Unionist victory is that the South would not FEEL beaten, only that the North had been "lucky" (essentially true). Which could mean the whole thing starts all over again after Lincoln leaves office.

The whole justification for the Emancipation Proclamation OTL was as a war measure. That's why it did not apply in slave states that hadn't seceded (Maryland, Kentucky...) or I believe in seceded areas that had already fallen under Union control. So under a hypothesis where the war's over, it doesn't happen - most people would have considered it unconstitutional (and they'd have been right). Also, I don't know if the Northern public was quite ready for abolition yet. On the other hand, Southern fears of what a Republican administration would mean would remain unresolved. What's going on six months after Bull Run? Maybe a wave of treason trials for Jefferson Davis and his ilk; instability as southern state governments need to be replaced because they're likewise guilty of disloyalty.... It could get very messy.

As to the idea of "the whole thing" starting over again after Lincoln leaves office, I'm torn between thinking it wouldn't wait four years and thinking it wouldn't happen at all. A movement to abolish slavery constitutionally might be the only way to resolve the conflict permanently, but might not be plausible off the bat....
 
One thing to keep in mind here is that even leading abolitionists were cautious in the early war, many leaders even imploring their fellows to remain silent (!)

What changed it all was Bull Run...
 
The Battle of 1st Mananas [July 21 1861]is a Union Victory :( :mad:, with Richmond falling in early August. Virginia leaves the War.
With Her go a lot of southern Generals
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin...l_War_leaders_.28Confederate.29_from_Virginia

Along with Virginia went any hope of European Recognition. I doubt if any af the CS Bonds will even be bought ITTL.

I expect the war to end late 1862. This is long before
On December 14, 1863, Congressman James Ashley, Republican of Ohio, introduced a bill in support of a constitutional amendment to prohibit slavery in the entire United States. It was the first antislavery amendment proposed by a congressman since John Quincy Adams in 1839.

A lot will depend on the Terms Virginia rejoins the Union.
If they are as lenient as OTL -Lincoln declares Virginia to no longer be in Rebellion, and Virginia's Congressional Delegation retakes their seats.
This may prompt NC, or Tenn to try to rejoin.
However overly harsh terms, will have the CS willing to fight to the last man.

The best outcome would be for a 13th amendment to pass Congress in 1862, and a requirement for all returning States to accept it.

The worst outcome would be for a Anti-Antislavery feeling to develop -- It was the Agitation over Slavery that almost fractured the Nation.
 
The Battle of 1st Mananas [July 21 1861]is a Union Victory :( :mad:, with Richmond falling in early August. Virginia leaves the War.
With Her go a lot of southern Generals
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin...l_War_leaders_.28Confederate.29_from_Virginia

Along with Virginia went any hope of European Recognition. I doubt if any af the CS Bonds will even be bought ITTL.

I expect the war to end late 1862. This is long before

A lot will depend on the Terms Virginia rejoins the Union.
If they are as lenient as OTL -Lincoln declares Virginia to no longer be in Rebellion, and Virginia's Congressional Delegation retakes their seats.
This may prompt NC, or Tenn to try to rejoin.
However overly harsh terms, will have the CS willing to fight to the last man.

The best outcome would be for a 13th amendment to pass Congress in 1862, and a requirement for all returning States to accept it.

The worst outcome would be for a Anti-Antislavery feeling to develop -- It was the Agitation over Slavery that almost fractured the Nation.

Interesting hypothesis. It hadn't occurred to me that Virginia could rejoin the Union but the Deep South keep fighting. But it seems perfectly reasonable now that you suggest it. And in fact it's probably more likely than the Confederacy abruptly folding just because Richmond falls....
 
One thing to keep in mind here is that even leading abolitionists were cautious in the early war, many leaders even imploring their fellows to remain silent (!)

What changed it all was Bull Run...
Indeed; up until the fighting got serious, a lot of people were still hopeful that the war could be resolved relatively painlessly; one or two quick battles to convince the South that rebellion would not work, and then a lenient peace to put things to an end before the war really got started. Needless to say, too much focus on abolition would throw a big wrench into that plan.

There was also a somewhat justified fear early in the war that if the Union insisted on abolition it could push Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, and what would become West Virginia into the Confederate camp. For that matter, in 1861 abolition was not overwhelmingly popular in the North; most Northerners cared more about preserving the Union than abolition.

I doubt there would be another rebellion in the immediate future in the event of a quick Union victory; the idea of secession is going to be a bit discredited after the disaster of the CSA. However, a quick Union victory would probably require promising to preserve slavery in order to return the CSA to the fold; anyone attempting to alter that agreement would run the risk of touching off a new rebellion in the South.
 
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