Whole Custom Union was purely German projects which was meaning benefit Germany. Netherlands not benefit anything joining there. It would be just German economic puppet.
 
The German Customs Union is a economic one that manage tariffs and economic policies within their members.
Luxembourg was independent member of union and not a state in the German Reich, it remained in the Zollverein until 1919.
There were germans plans* to make Belgium and Netherlands member of the German Customs Union. more likely as independent member like Luxembourg ?
I have no doubt Germany wanted the Netherlands to join. But that is not enough reason for the netherlands to join. The Netherlands would not gain enough to join, while losing too much. So Germany would probably offer membership to the Netherlands, who would decline it. Unless the Germans actualy invade the Netherlands (which I doubt they would), that is the end of the story.
 
How is anyone figuring that the German empire would have to PAY Belgium anything? If Germany has decisively defeated France, no one can extract reparations from Germany. If Russia fights on, it'll be defeated, too. (At best, France might have to pay for rebuilding Belgium--more likely, Belgium is left to pick up its own pieces, or forced to become a German client state. Of course, Belgium comes with the Congo as a bonus add-on, to be sorted at the peace treaty.
I'd expect a peace based on the current situation with regards to Britain, perhaps with Britain giving some German territories back in order to get less onerous terms on the French--a vital counterbalance to Germany on the continent.
The USA will sell Germany whatever it wants; the sea lanes are open.
The US paid Mexico at the end of the Mexican-American war in exchange for the land ceded to the US, if Germany gets all or part of Belgium Congo I could see payment being sent as part of the negotiation.

For me a decisive victory would be Paris either encircled or captured, which means the costal region to the North would be in German hands with Belgium overrun as well. Combined with one or more French army captured in full along with some of the BEF I do think a negotiated peace with Central Power advantage would be negotiated. Of course the big potential game changers here are when do the Central Powers start doing better on the Western Front? If it is early enough you can have some major changes like neutral (or even CP) Italy, earlier entry of Bulgaria, possible CP Romania (they might want a piece of Russia).

Italy and Bulgaria both joined the war OTL in 1915, Romania in 1916 so Romania has not joined as OP states decisive victory before 1916.

Scenario 1: OTL join dates (Entente Italy and CP Bulgaria)
Situation- A more devastating Autumn offensive for the Entente (more lopsided casualty ratio and higher expenditure of munitions including artillery shells), perhaps some of the offensive forces being captured in counter attacks on original German positions, followed by a German counter attack that punches through a drawn down sector (maybe faulty intelligence reaches the French and British so they expect an attack somewhere else and end up pulling forces out of the actual offensive area), end result an actually breach in the defensive line is generated combined with a lack of allied reinforcements for a counter-offensive until German reinforcements arrive and secure the breach- from there a retreat along the front until the Germans are on the outskirts of Paris. Though can someone with more knowledge of WWI warfare give the effects of a successful breakthrough at any point of the Western Front, and by that I mean the attacking force breaching the various defensive lines and not being thrown back or halted by a counter offensive but actually getting out into the rear areas. I went with the Autumn offensive as that occurs close enough to Bulgaria joining and could be a possible POD- for example the French and British think their attacks are closer to succeeding then they actually are, or are close to breaching the German line and so throw more forces into the grinder in the hopes of victory only for German reinforcements to arrive in time and inflict heavy damage on the offensive, that could cause even more expenditure of artillery munitions by the French and British and both result in more casualties and possibly prisoners leaving them less prepared for a counter offensive or forcing them to pull units and supplies from somewhere else on the front to strengthen the area once held by the now damaged or captured units.

Result:
France sues for peace, seeing the writing on the wall Italy joins as they are not going to face down Germany and AH that no longer needs to fight France and can turn their attention that way. UK indicates a willingness to negotiate, which in turn drags in the Russians (no way they are fighting Germany, AH, Bulgaria and Ottomans by themselves). This in turn drags in the rest of the CP (Bulgaria and Ottomans) and you have a peace conference. Would Switzerland be willing to host it as it is neutral in the conflict and next to both France and Germany along with Italy and AH. Negotiated Peace for the war.

Colonies- status quo ante, except for Asia were I see many of them being retained by Japan with payments sent to Germany. Main colony change I could see is part of the Belgian Congo going to Germany in exchange for a payment, which also acts as a means to held fund the repair of Belgium.
France- Minor border adjustments- any potential major gains in France (and Belgium) are given up in favor of the return of the German colonies, UK wants no part of Germany with a presence on the channel and keeping France intact, some reparations are also to be paid to Germany. I do expect the small coal area on the border to be put into German hands at the very least to deny it to the French and since it would be a minor adjustment. Restriction on Air Force possible
Belgium- Restored, possible sales of some of the Belgian Congo to Germany.
Luxemborg- Part of the German Empire (marriage to Prince of Bavaria was mentioned as occurring OTL earlier in the thread)
Italy- Reparations to AH (maybe Germany), relinquish claims in the Balkans
Russia- At this point they had been thrown back by the 1915 Eastern offensive by the Germans, so Poland is being formed in some shape, maybe some of the Baltic states. Pre war border between them and AH, likely the same between them and Ottomans (winter offensive has not happened yet), some reparations to Germany, AH and Ottomans
UK- Minor reparations perhaps, but mainly a status quo ante for them, they give up gains in exchange for the Germans not controlling the southern side of the English Channel.
Serbia- split between AH and Bulgaria (though some of it may be as a puppet state) but I know Bulgaria has some land claims on Serbia.

After the war-
The French are not ground down as much with only 1 and half years of war as they are OTL, on the flip side they have lost to Germany again, and this time they had an ally fighting with them and Germany had split her attention. They also now have to face a post war situation where they must repay loans from the US and give some funds to Germany as part of the peace, they still have a place in the World and still control almost everything from pre war, but gaining their claims on Germany is lost to them, perhaps for good. Their industry has been hurt badly with some of it being in areas that were either the front or overrun 1914. It will take time to pick up the pieces
The Italians- not good for those in power, they shed the blood of their youth and in exchange got nothing except having to give money to AH and give up their dreams in the Balkans, for now at least. I expect discontent with the government given the result.
Serbia- Now under AH and Bulgarian control, their dreams have ended, for now. I expect unrest to continue but surrounded by unfriendly powers and with no aid coming their economy is likely to shrink and maybe collapse, don't expect AH to do any development in their area of influence, instead more likely to try and extract funds.
Russia- They gambled and lost, Poland and perhaps more have been lost to them, their armies bleed and money being sent to their rivals. Unrest will be brewing, the prestige of the army has been destroyed (No Winter offensive against the Turks, no Brussilov Offensive) and two lost wars. Still Ukraine remains a part of the realm, and likely Baku (though there may be a push by the Germans for some of the Oil to be sent to them as part of the peace).
UK- Their youth have been bloodied (Autumn offensive, failure at Gallipoli) but their Empire is undamaged, Egypt and the Seuz remain as does the Jewel that is India. On the flip side loans are owed to the US and payment will be expected, the failure of their own land operations and those of their allies casts a pall, and their is still the matter of the restive Irish.

Germany- Things are good, superiority has been proven and some gains were made, Russia and France have been humbled on the field of battle with a slight weakening of Russia with the loss of Poland. Their industry should be intact while the French industry has been damaged. Alliances have been made and strengthened and opposition has been weakened. A connection from Berlin to Baghdad has been realized and with it the possibility of Ottoman Oil to fuel Germany industry and military.
AH- A mixed bag, Serbia has been dealt with, but the poor showing against the Russians in 1914 needs to be dealt with, Italy is still a threat and now on the opposite side. Bulgaria is a power in the Balkans for good or bad (good if they can work together). Still Russia has been bleed, and worse then AH, plus they have lost Poland and revolution cannot be ruled out. They have a solid friend and ally in Germany so their potential for a better future is there.
Ottomans- No gains in terms of land, but no losses either, they have had success and failure against Russia and British forces so more work on the military needs to occur. And the Capitulations are now a thing of the past. A potential friend has been made in Germany and AH, and there is oil to exploit, the future is what they make of it.
Bulgaria- A brighter future is here, gains have been made in Serbia, Russia is humbled and the Ottomans have turned away from the Balkans. The Italians have been shut out as well for now and they lay astride a line from Berlin to Baghdad and the oil and other trade that may entail. Opportunity is theirs.


Scenario 2: Neutral Italy, CP Bulgaria
Why- Better performance by AH against Serbia and Russia convince Italy that AH is not easy pickings and convinces Bulgaria that the CP are a good bet so they jump on Serbia earlier. Knock on effects are more forces arrayed against Russia, and Russia worse off, France can't remove all of their troops from the Italian border so a bit less forces in the west. Perhaps a spring Russian offensive with a better start position for the Austrians ends in enough time to move German forces west to meet the Entente autumn offensive and turn it into a counter offensive.

Peace- similar to the above, though no Italy involved in the negotiations.

Scenario 3: CP Italy and CP Bulgaria-
A better CP 1914 convinces the Italians that France is on the way to a loss so they join in 1915 in the efforts to make some gains. With additional French forces needed along the Italian border and Bulgaria also likely jumping in earlier to be on the wining side Germans manage the breakthrough they need to reach Paris. A side effect is this is likely to paralyze the Entente armies in the colonial sphere to adjust for the Italian Colonies and Colonial Armies, if this is after Gallipoli has started it makes it worse for the Entente as their free forces are tied up with the Ottomans

Peace- Some French territory ceded to the Italians, some reparations.

Actually in looking it over, if we keep true to the OP of Germany eking out a decisive win the peace is likely to look similar. With difference being who has to give money and who gets money, Italian CP likely gets some border adjustments with France and some of the Balkans (Albania/Montenegro). Italian Entente has to pay reparations and deal with the fact that they sent a lot of young men to their death only to have to make payments to AH on top of that.

Any bigger changes are precluded to me due to the eking a decisive victory, as opposed to a decisive CP victory which can look quite different and produce a different peace.
 
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FBKampfer

Banned
Well, the Allies were getting pretty close to flat broke by the middle of 1916.

Say Verdun goes just a bit better (and it almost came down to the wire at Souville). Instead of the French Army holding against the best Germany can throw at them, it may come to be seen as the Germans grinding down an entire field army's worth of the best French soldiers through some of the most heavily defended fortifications on the Western Front (despite their own casualties, which the Allies would have no accurate way of estimating).


After losing 5% of the entire male population of France, and particularly the losses at Verdun and the failure of Somme, French morale was..... fragile. If Verdun and the Somme both ended up as failures, this may accelerate things. Particularly if the Germans are able to make good on their victories and keep pressing forward against the French (even if there's no other large notable victories in 1916).

If soldiers' war diaries are to be trusted, getting your asses kicked back one trench at a time no matter how hard you try can be even more disheartening than having to pull back 15 miles because the morons in the corps next to you left their flank open.


I think French will to hold on no matter what is a bit nonexistent by the end of 1916, no matter what some may argue to the contrary.
 
Luxembourg is absorbed .. the Alsec question is settled .. colonies are swapped around, however Germany is the clear looser in this regard as they can not power project to protect or administer them at this point. so mainly its the british jumping on them.

French pay some restitution. Netherlands are asked nicely to join the customs union but are independent... Denmark is as well as Belgium asked nicely in a sweet Prussian tone.

it wasn't so much a war about land. the Germans didn't want France. they wanted a seat at the same table and if not the primary chair, a really nice one right next to it. This was a war about control, finance, money. Germany was willing to let The UK do its thing, but on the continent, Germany wanted to be boss of central / eastern Europe, again they simply didn't want France and outside of the fact that france posed a military threat and bumbled in its affairs, Germany honestly I don't think cared. So pay some fines, talk to the brits about colonies but leave the German Sphere alone.. PERIOD would be the final settlement.

the real questions are more what happens in the east. Do the victors really help the fledgling nations? Poland? Belarus/Lithuania? Latvia? Estonia? Finland? Ukraine? or do they just get tossed around again under new ownership
 
but leave the German Sphere alone.. PERIOD would be the final settlement.

This was a surprisingly important and persistent war aim.

German politicians and industrialists knew that MittelEuropa was not an economic substitute for access to world markets so always included a 'clause' that the Western powers don't erect punitive tariff barriers in response to ME, and were willing to tinker which who was in and out of ME in order to make it palatable to (even defeated) Western powers.
 
This was a surprisingly important and persistent war aim.

German politicians and industrialists knew that MittelEuropa was not an economic substitute for access to world markets so always included a 'clause' that the Western powers don't erect punitive tariff barriers in response to ME, and were willing to tinker which who was in and out of ME in order to make it palatable to (even defeated) Western powers.


exactly, it wasn't like the germans were fighting to simply exclude themselves from the world. they wanted their sphere, and be the table setter in that sphere, all the while the sphere was flexible to allow members in .. ( not sure on out ;) ) Germany wasn't a colonial power, but it wanted to step up the big table and needed a land empire to allow it to do that. It looked at Russia and said, heh.. well .. its only the sheer size that allows it to the table. it looked at the French and said, colonial empire, it looked at the Brits and said, colonial empire, super navy, island fortress. what did Germany have or need to step up... its own sphere, that meant carving out influence to the east
 
I've read that there was little to no economic benefit to ME, that instead it was about political control/influence over the countries that were to provide a security buffer against Russia. The Germans didn't want an independently minded Poland or whatever to suddenly change sides to remove German security at a stroke.
 

Perkeo

Banned
I think that, on the western front, the maximum is status quo ante bellum plus some symbolic extras like moderate indemnities, small boundary corrections, etc. If the Germans are stupid enough to go for more they do not win.
There is no way Britain accepts a hegemony in Western Europe or Germany becoming a superpower in the colonial theatre, nor are the CPs strong enough to force them.
The key is that Germany can win the peace, but not the war.
 
Luxembourg is absorbed .. the Alsec question is settled .. colonies are swapped around, however Germany is the clear looser in this regard as they can not power project to protect or administer them at this point. so mainly its the british jumping on them.

Their best countermove might be to invade the Sinai Peninsula.

If they can make the Suez Canal unusable by bringing it within range of their artillery, this will inconvenience Britain enough that she'll probably concede a few petty African colonies in return

Personally I think they'd do better writing off Sub-Saharan Africa and getting Arabia and Persia - both accessible by land - as German satellites. But may not see it that way.


the real questions are more what happens in the east. Do the victors really help the fledgling nations? Poland? Belarus/Lithuania? Latvia? Estonia? Finland? Ukraine? or do they just get tossed around again under new ownership

They have to weaken Russia pretty drastically. She is industrialising hand over fist, ad within another generation or so may well have reached the point where she can defeat Germany even w/o French support. So Germany has to crpple her.
 
Their best countermove might be to invade the Sinai Peninsula.

If they can make the Suez Canal unusable by bringing it within range of their artillery, this will inconvenience Britain enough that she'll probably concede a few petty African colonies in return

Personally I think they'd do better writing off Sub-Saharan Africa and getting Arabia and Persia - both accessible by land - as German satellites. But may not see it that way.




They have to weaken Russia pretty drastically. She is industrialising hand over fist, ad within another generation or so may well have reached the point where she can defeat Germany even w/o French support. So Germany has to crpple her.
does she? was Russia really planning to absorb the germans in a generation? or is that thinking more about scare tactics and simply trying to dominate thy neighbor? I guess it boils down to who is looking to expand their empires and or influence
 
does she? was Russia really planning to absorb the germans in a generation? or is that thinking more about scare tactics and simply trying to dominate thy neighbor? I guess it boils down to who is looking to expand their empires and or influence


Not so much a question of what Russia was planning as of what Germans assumed that she was planning.

Didn't some prominent German (Moltke?) advise an East Prussian friend against planting trees, because by the time they matured the region would be in Russian hands so that Germany would never benefit?
 
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