Quick CP Victory: Fate of Austria

We all know that even if the Germans won the First World War in 1917, Austria-Hungary was doomed. Its ethnic minorities had become too restless and it was very likely to collapse after a late victory.

So my question is 'What if the Central Powers won the war in 1914?' How would the fate of the Austro-Hungarian Empire be changed by a rapid victory?

What do you think?
 
I suppose that the Austria-Hungarian Empire might toddle along until Karl ascends the throne. From what I heard he wanted to implement FF's federalist ideas although I don't know how much of that came from necessity. He also promised some minorities more autonomy. If all of that goes through, A-H might survive even though there will be some friction with the Hungarians.
 
I suppose that the Austria-Hungarian Empire might toddle along until Karl ascends the throne. From what I heard he wanted to implement FF's federalist ideas although I don't know how much of that came from necessity. He also promised some minorities more autonomy. If all of that goes through, A-H might survive even though there will be some friction with the Hungarians.

In the longer term, however, one wonders whether the federalised empire will be threatened by pan-Germanism.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Honestly I see the Habsburg uniting Galicia with Congress Poland as the Kingdom of Poland under a Habsburg monarch, beside that I think AH will create a new Kingdom of Croatia in the Empire (Croatia, Dalmatia and Bosnia), which will make the balance much more stable. In Austria proper Germans is in majority, in Hungary Magyars and Croatia is 95% Serbo-Croat. At the same time Germany will protect AH against internal unrest and rebellion and give AH time to stabilise the Empire. With that structur I think the Empire easily can survive to today.
 

Susano

Banned
Any changes in the structure of the Double Monarchy will bring about a Civil War. There were seperate Hungarian units, after all. Its a winneable Civil War, but one of course Vienna will probably shy away from.

And if the CP win early, there will also be no real need for reforms. Basically, it will be pre-war AH, which, despite all grumblings, was reasonably stable and working...
 
Honestly I see the Habsburg uniting Galicia with Congress Poland as the Kingdom of Poland under a Habsburg monarch, beside that I think AH will create a new Kingdom of Croatia in the Empire (Croatia, Dalmatia and Bosnia), which will make the balance much more stable. In Austria proper Germans is in majority, in Hungary Magyars and Croatia is 95% Serbo-Croat. At the same time Germany will protect AH against internal unrest and rebellion and give AH time to stabilise the Empire. With that structur I think the Empire easily can survive to today.

Not sure about Poland. I don't know how much the CP prioritised eastern buffer-states, but they didn't have boots on the ground until the summer of '15, and taking over Poland with Russian troops in Warsaw would be a big concession. I'd certainly agree that Hapsburg Poland was the plan between Gorlice-Tarnow and Kowel, but I'm not so sure about before then.

Although it was an aspiration of Vienna to curb Hungarian power by empowering a Slav element (the Czechs, the Croats, or both), as Susano says, Hungary would have fought tooth and nail.

A German victory in 1914 followed by no major catastrophes seems to me likely to result in a powerful, prosperous, and proud Germany which may gradually democratise over the coming decades. With this scenario, I really don't see why Germany will prop up A-H indefinately rather than swallowing Cisleithenia. I'm not saying this would occur immediately, far from it: it would take decades, and this is all assuming no major upheavals. But the survival of an Austro-Hungarian empire precludes the development of Austrian nationalism, which was a tremendous fluke anyway, and therefore makes it likely that Pan-Germanism will eventually pile up on all the other -isms to shake the Empire apart.
 

Susano

Banned
Actually, a quick CP victory will have some drawbacks, and the democratic vs authoritarian elements is one of them. For the last few decades, the socialists have been on the upswing, criticiszing the government left and right, and also criticiszing the naster attitudes of society, like militarism, antisemitism and patriarchalism (its amazing how much they got things right...). However, with the often spoken about "quick decisive victory", militarism will now be vindicated, and so will the government and conservative elements in Germany! Still, of course, those elements of course were the same ones having megalomanic daydreams, so your scenario might still happen. But it would take decades - with a basically German-speaking Empire, theres no need to add its German parts to Germany... at least not at first.
 
Actually, a quick CP victory will have some drawbacks, and the democratic vs authoritarian elements is one of them. For the last few decades, the socialists have been on the upswing, criticiszing the government left and right, and also criticiszing the naster attitudes of society, like militarism, antisemitism and patriarchalism (its amazing how much they got things right...). However, with the often spoken about "quick decisive victory", militarism will now be vindicated, and so will the government and conservative elements in Germany! Still, of course, those elements of course were the same ones having megalomanic daydreams, so your scenario might still happen. But it would take decades - with a basically German-speaking Empire, theres no need to add its German parts to Germany... at least not at first.

Precisely. I said that my scenario may happen, and many of the other options seem likely to result in "upheavals". And as I said, I totally agree that the Hapsburgs were more stable than they get credit for and could have lasted a lot longer, I simply think that they weren't going to last another century barring highly exceptional circumstances.
 
Ramshackle Empire

I think Austro-Hungary could survive in an early ending WWI though I would not go so far as to say it is probable. It would be interesting having Otto on the throne.

"They called it a ramshackle empire" Joyce said of it, "I wish to God there were more such empires"
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
We all know that even if the Germans won the First World War in 1917, Austria-Hungary was doomed. Its ethnic minorities had become too restless and it was very likely to collapse after a late victory.

So my question is 'What if the Central Powers won the war in 1914?' How would the fate of the Austro-Hungarian Empire be changed by a rapid victory?

What do you think?
A-H was doomed in it's current form in 1914. If there were some serious federalist reforms the Empire might have survived (not to mention the fact that the Empire would have to reward the Czechs, Croats, Poles etc. for fighting in their armies in WW1).
 

Nietzsche

Banned
Honestly I see the Habsburg uniting Galicia with Congress Poland as the Kingdom of Poland under a Habsburg monarch, beside that I think AH will create a new Kingdom of Croatia in the Empire (Croatia, Dalmatia and Bosnia), which will make the balance much more stable. In Austria proper Germans is in majority, in Hungary Magyars and Croatia is 95% Serbo-Croat. At the same time Germany will protect AH against internal unrest and rebellion and give AH time to stabilise the Empire. With that structur I think the Empire easily can survive to today.

Err. Do you really think Germany..specifically, the Hohenzollerns, would allow that?
 
You mean the Poland thingy? It is actually possible. You do know that the elected monarch for Poland would have been a Habsburg, namely Archduke Karl Stefan, do you?
 
So my question is 'What if the Central Powers won the war in 1914?' How would the fate of the Austro-Hungarian Empire be changed by a rapid victory

Hmmmm .. A-H options and future are not only tied to Germany but Russia in various ways. How is Russia defeated so soon (1914)? I'm guessing it must be some kind of quick German victory in the West which forces the Czar to sue for peace? If that's the case, the there is a paranoid yet still independent Slavic rival in the East. She might have to tred lightly (due to Germany) but she could still churn up trouble for for A-H in subtle ways.
 

Susano

Banned
You mean the Poland thingy? It is actually possible. You do know that the elected monarch for Poland would have been a Habsburg, namely Archduke Karl Stefan, do you?

Yeah, and the Galicia transfer thing was also part of the actual plans. So that is indeed very likely.
 
Yes Stefan was supported by his Cousin Karl. Karl believed that for the Empire to survive it would need to change and make all of the people feel that they were members of the empire. If anyone could have made the changes work it would have been Karl.
 
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