If the Ottomans were neutral in WWI would Britain put it on an import ration like with the Nordic neutrals?
With a neutral Turkey, would emigration by mostly Lebanese, Greek and Armenian Ottoman Christians to the US and rest of the western hemisphere continue at pre-war levels, or at levels substantially above OTL's wartime years?
Most importantly, what would be the rules for traffic through the straits?
a) straits are closed to non-Ottoman warships, but open to commercial ships of all nations for the duration
b) straits are closed to all foreign ships, naval and commercial, for the duration
c) straits are closed to non-Ottoman warships, legally open to foreign commercial traffic, but the Ottomans mobilize their fleet, rigorously inspect commercial ships and mine the straits except for a select narrow channel
How much would any of a, b or c piss off the Entente?
Would Ottoman restrictions on straits traffic irritate the Entente enough they would declare war on the Ottomans and try to seize the straits?
How useful for the Entente are
1) basically unlimited commercial only traffic
2) constricted straits traffic but with trade permitted via transloading to Ottoman barges and rail.
Would 1 or 2 be enough to significantly increase Russia's chances of surviving the war?
Could the effects of there simply being no active shooting fronts for the British and Russians against the Ottomans, even if the straits are blocked, be enough to make Russia survive the war?
With a neutral Turkey, would emigration by mostly Lebanese, Greek and Armenian Ottoman Christians to the US and rest of the western hemisphere continue at pre-war levels, or at levels substantially above OTL's wartime years?
Most importantly, what would be the rules for traffic through the straits?
a) straits are closed to non-Ottoman warships, but open to commercial ships of all nations for the duration
b) straits are closed to all foreign ships, naval and commercial, for the duration
c) straits are closed to non-Ottoman warships, legally open to foreign commercial traffic, but the Ottomans mobilize their fleet, rigorously inspect commercial ships and mine the straits except for a select narrow channel
How much would any of a, b or c piss off the Entente?
Would Ottoman restrictions on straits traffic irritate the Entente enough they would declare war on the Ottomans and try to seize the straits?
How useful for the Entente are
1) basically unlimited commercial only traffic
2) constricted straits traffic but with trade permitted via transloading to Ottoman barges and rail.
Would 1 or 2 be enough to significantly increase Russia's chances of surviving the war?
Could the effects of there simply being no active shooting fronts for the British and Russians against the Ottomans, even if the straits are blocked, be enough to make Russia survive the war?