Questions on a key POD in the War of the Bavarian Succession

In OTL, Frederick II and Joseph "fought" the war by trying to outmaneuver and cut the supply lines of one another. In this POD, Frederick makes a very uncommon tactical error: he decides to attempt to win a decisive victory over the Austrians who are entrenched at Königgrätz. The Prussians, although they fight valiantly, are defeated, and a relief force led by Frederick's brother Henry is defeated by a rear flank attack from Baron Von Laudon. Joseph, having obtained a decisive victory, goes onto negotiate from a position of strength. I have two questions, the first of which being what factors could have compelled Frederick to attack in such a manner? And secondly, if Joseph had won such a victory, could he have achieved his goal of the annexation of Bavaria in exchange for giving Charles Theodore the throne of Belgium, as well as possibly legitimizing his bastards? Lastly, is there any way Jospeh could also grab the Upper Palatinate, so as to obtain as much of modern Bavaria as possible? Any answers here will be of great help, as I am intenting to write an alternate history of Austria, and this war is a key POD.
 
In OTL, Frederick II and Joseph "fought" the war by trying to outmaneuver and cut the supply lines of one another. In this POD, Frederick makes a very uncommon tactical error: he decides to attempt to win a decisive victory over the Austrians who are entrenched at Königgrätz. The Prussians, although they fight valiantly, are defeated, and a relief force led by Frederick's brother Henry is defeated by a rear flank attack from Baron Von Laudon. Joseph, having obtained a decisive victory, goes onto negotiate from a position of strength. I have two questions, the first of which being what factors could have compelled Frederick to attack in such a manner? And secondly, if Joseph had won such a victory, could he have achieved his goal of the annexation of Bavaria in exchange for giving Charles Theodore the throne of Belgium, as well as possibly legitimizing his bastards? Lastly, is there any way Jospeh could also grab the Upper Palatinate, so as to obtain as much of modern Bavaria as possible? Any answers here will be of great help, as I am intenting to write an alternate history of Austria, and this war is a key POD.

First off, welcome to the board:). Second, this is a very interesting POD, one rarely explored. However, this doesn't seem to fit with Friedrich the Great's personality at this point in time. Neither Friedrich nor Empress Maria Theresa had any interest in starting yet another drawn out war. Not to mention that Joseph had very few allies to call on.

The way I see it, you need a way to bring either France or Russia over to Josef's side. If Catherine the Great could be convinced to remain neutral or offer 50,000 troops to Austria instead of Prussia, then things would be different. Me personally, I think Josef should have marched into Bavaria proper and simply occupied it, forcing Prussia and Saxony to either start another war to expel the Austrians or accept it fait accompli.

Finally, as to the upper Palatinate, no way. The entire point of trading the Netherlands for Bavaria was to round out Habsburg territory in Germany and to remove lands that were far off to defend. The Palatinate would be an isolated territory, hard to defend. Plus Karl Theodor much preferred to rule over the Electorate of the Palatinate, having little desire to move to Bavaria. So no swapping in the upper Palatinate.
 
While reading your response, the scenario I thought of involved Joseph signing a pact with Catherine that would allow for her to expand at the expense of the ottomans without Austrian intervention. Perhaps she could gain some lands in Moldovia or (Wallachia?), and extent of Russian expansion I believe would be greater than the OTL. Joseph wouldn't even need to ask for Russian troops, he just needs Russia to stay neutral. With this development, Frederick may be forced to take a rash action that would normally be unlike him. He decides a decisive victory is what is necessary to gain Russian/French support and attacks Josephs defensive lines at Könnigratz. This producing the opposite of his intentions, a decisive Austrian victory. This knocks Prussia down a peg and damages Frederick's prestige. Joseph then jumps on the chance to occupy The Electorate of Bavaria and install Charles in The Austrian Netherlands. How does this chain of events sound?
 
I've posited something similar involving this war and bringing in Poland and possibly Sweden on Austria'so side. At the time Russia and the Ottomans (reluctant Sultan but many of the crime an exiles in Constantinople were calling for war) were close to war over the insurrection in nominally independent Crimea. Basically get Joseph to attach conditions but relinquish the ANL to Charles Theodore for all of Bavaria. Have Poland mobilise for Austria against Prussia; and have the French and the Austrians encourage a Russo-Ottoman war. That keeps Catherine busy for a while, if any luck Austria wins and gets Bavaria & Silesia. Sweeten the deal for Poland (she gets nothing from Prussia) and possible get Maria Theresia's backing by ceding back to Poland parts of the first partition in the far east, possibly everything north of Halicz and the Dniester River (for a more defensible border & so Joseph isn't seen as too land grabby too). Problem forum members pointed out to me was troop quality for to beat Prussia into accepting.
 
Well, reading this just gave me some ideas :D
Is it possible to make this a war between Prussia, Saxony and Russia on one side with Austria, Ottomans and Sweden on the other? Possibly even Poland on Austrian side?
 
I read your thread on the coalition war between Austria/Sweden/Poland vs Prussia/Russia/Saxony and I agree with many of the other posters that the last thing Joseph would want is an expanded conflict, especially given that his allies in such a conflict could do little to assist against the immediate Prussian threat and only serve to antagonize Russia- which in my scenario Joseph very much wants to avoid. If anything he should be courting Russian favor to compel Frederick to go on a potentially foolhardy offensive. As much as I like the idea of a reinvigorated Sweden, Charles XII is long dead and his dreams of a northern empire have gone with him :(. So in my opinion Joseph could make much more progress in keeping the conflict local and aiming just for Bavaria. As for regaining Silesia, I believe that to be a totally lost cause. It was thoroughly Prussian at this point and Europe accepted it as such. Joseph wanted Bavaria as a way to bolster the lost German speakers from Silesia, as well as a larger foothold into Germany. Interesting idea on your thread, though, thanks for the link.
 
Yeah, Habsburgs had to give up their claims on Silesia and Frederick promised not to lay claim on any other Habsburg territories and to vote for Joseph II at the election. Joseph wanted Bavaria (or part of it) sort of as a compensation for the loss Silesia. But the Prussians didn't like that, fearing the Austrian influence would expand and there's a war. It would probably be fought mainly by Austrian and Prussia around Bohemia and Moravia, maybe Silesia if Frederick is not very successful but I don't see any changes there. Only territorial changes in Bavaria seem plausible (and ANL or Breisgau and those few other small enclaves that Joseph wanted to cede instead of ANL later on)
 
Yeah, Habsburgs had to give up their claims on Silesia and Frederick promised not to lay claim on any other Habsburg territories and to vote for Joseph II at the election. Joseph wanted Bavaria (or part of it) sort of as a compensation for the loss Silesia. But the Prussians didn't like that, fearing the Austrian influence would expand and there's a war. It would probably be fought mainly by Austrian and Prussia around Bohemia and Moravia, maybe Silesia if Frederick is not very successful but I don't see any changes there. Only territorial changes in Bavaria seem plausible (and ANL or Breisgau and those few other small enclaves that Joseph wanted to cede instead of ANL later on)

I read your thread on the coalition war between Austria/Sweden/Poland vs Prussia/Russia/Saxony and I agree with many of the other posters that the last thing Joseph would want is an expanded conflict, especially given that his allies in such a conflict could do little to assist against the immediate Prussian threat and only serve to antagonize Russia- which in my scenario Joseph very much wants to avoid. If anything he should be courting Russian favor to compel Frederick to go on a potentially foolhardy offensive. As much as I like the idea of a reinvigorated Sweden, Charles XII is long dead and his dreams of a northern empire have gone with him :(. So in my opinion Joseph could make much more progress in keeping the conflict local and aiming just for Bavaria. As for regaining Silesia, I believe that to be a totally lost cause. It was thoroughly Prussian at this point and Europe accepted it as such. Joseph wanted Bavaria as a way to bolster the lost German speakers from Silesia, as well as a larger foothold into Germany. Interesting idea on your thread, though, thanks for the link.

Most welcome. I agree with you both that he'd probably want to conflict to be more minor than a major one. But if the Russia and the Ottomans were at war; Britain, France & Spain are still busy with the American Revolutionary War and Sweden and Poland in the Austrian camp the situation is good enough for Joseph to make his claims if he succeeds. I think the problem would be the aftermath, giving Poland back some territory would curry favour but maybe not that much. , Austria's loss of Silesia + Ottoman loses to Russia were the basis for the Partitions in the first place. If I recall correctly the original proposal was by France that the powers would let Russia take territory from PLC to spare the Ottomans as no one wanted Russia to gain as much as she would have otherwise, Prussia would cede Silesia back to Austria in exchange for gaining ducal Prussia from PLC and Austria would not intervene on behalf of the Ottomans, things were really close to war and had France and GBR been in better situations they would've intervene alongside Austria on the Ottoman's behalf, the 1st partition was a way of keeping the peace and saving the Ottomans. All in it'd just be a bunch of territorial swaps, Austrian hasn't really expanded more swapped something things around Bavaria for the ANL & Silesia for a significant portion of Galicia-Lodomeria. It'd probably be viewed in retrospect as Prussia once again instigating a conflict and this time losing and being forced to recognise Joseph's hold on Bavaria and lose Silesia but she's still larger than she was before Frederick's reign as she now has Ducal Prussia connecting the Electorate of Brandenburg with Royal Prussia.

As for claim revocations and promises, monarchs went back on their words all the time (Pragmatic Sanction for MT being the most recent example) whenever it suited them especially Frederick (broke the truces in his theatre of the War of Austrian Succession whenever Austria & GBR were doing well against France out of worry them when they were done with them, MT would come back with a vengeance on him).

I'd say if the plan succeeded the greatest worry would be currying Russian favour afterwards especially contingent on the outcome of the parallel Russo-Turkish War. The balance of power is slightly enhanced in Austria's favour in that she has rounded her borders and can concentrate troops a bit more easily, provided the French alliance holds the HRE's western borders are secure; so long as Joseph set's his expansive sights on just lower danubia (maybe get all of the provinces from the Ottoman's north of the Danube and west of the Dniester revoking all claims of territories South of the Danube and any further expansion at Ottoman expense they should be fine). Up to the War of Bavarian succession Prussia was seen as a pariah, respected but pariah nonetheless, Joseph's mis-steps in diplomacy elevated Prussia into a defender of the rights of the estates of the empire from the emperor. At least that's my two cents anyway.
 
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Finally, as to the upper Palatinate, no way. The entire point of trading the Netherlands for Bavaria was to round out Habsburg territory in Germany and to remove lands that were far off to defend. The Palatinate would be an isolated territory, hard to defend. Plus Karl Theodor much preferred to rule over the Electorate of the Palatinate, having little desire to move to Bavaria. So no swapping in the upper Palatinate.

He's referencing the Upper Palatinate

UpPal.jpg

which as you see lies adjacent to Bohemia. It was the Upper Palatinate because it belonged to the Palatinate branch of the Wittelsbachs until 1628, and was upriver from the Palatinate proper. (Much like the bits of Hapsburg land in the SW corner of Germany were dubbed Hither Austria.)

UpPal.jpg
 
Why would all of Bavaria be transferred? The deal was that Austria only got half.

I hadn't realized that that was the case. I suppose for the sake of this scenario Joseph has driven a harder bargain with Charles, demanding all of Bavaria for the Austrian Netherlands; a deal which Charles accepted. And yes, I was referring to the Upper Palatinate, whose lands had been attached to Bavaria since (Westphalia I believe).
 
Final question. As this timeline stands, Austria has now gained the electorate of Bavaria and has created a plurality of German speakers in its lands, reducing the dominance of the Magyars of Hungary. Coupled with Josephs new prestige and this political development, could Joseph now push through some of his reforms? And if so, which ones are most likely to succeed and last. Lastly, with this new situation in Europe, if the napoleonic wars still occur, will Austria be able to hold onto this Bavarian acquisition?
 
Final question. As this timeline stands, Austria has now gained the electorate of Bavaria and has created a plurality of German speakers in its lands, reducing the dominance of the Magyars of Hungary. Coupled with Josephs new prestige and this political development, could Joseph now push through some of his reforms? And if so, which ones are most likely to succeed and last. Lastly, with this new situation in Europe, if the napoleonic wars still occur, will Austria be able to hold onto this Bavarian acquisition?
If the Coalition which Austria played a major role in defeats Napoleon like in OTL,why not?

An interesting thing would be whether Austria could be excluded from Germany with Bavaria,Austria and Bohemia all being part of the Austrian Empire?
 
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In case a real war breaks out would the Austrians be able to defeat the Prussians? Frederick was old by then, but his army was probably still capable to win. In SYW with four enemies he still won and now he has Saxony on his side and Russia too. Catherine promised 50,000 men to maintain the balance of power. Even if Sweden joins they will only tie up a small part of the Russian army and they risk losing Swedish Pomerania. Poland probably can't lift a finger without being overran. And the Ottomans just lost a war 1768-1774. Would they fight again?
 
In case a real war breaks out would the Austrians be able to defeat the Prussians? Frederick was old by then, but his army was probably still capable to win. In SYW with four enemies he still won and now he has Saxony on his side and Russia too. Catherine promised 50,000 men to maintain the balance of power. Even if Sweden joins they will only tie up a small part of the Russian army and they risk losing Swedish Pomerania. Poland probably can't lift a finger without being overran. And the Ottomans just lost a war 1768-1774. Would they fight again?

Wasn't Catherine's intervention more because Maria Theresia sent envoys to gather her assistance to sue for peace? MT was really against the war from the get go. Not to say the Catherine wouldn't intervene though.

The Sultan at the time, Abdul Hamid I had just come to the throne in 1774 was more concerned with reforming and strengthening the Ottoman Empire but with a little prodding may be able to put up a fight (I'm kind of musing that France encourages war and actually sends technical military advisers to assist unlike, though with most of her resources focused on the revolutionary war this may be unlikely)

He did declare war later in 1787 though that also didn't end well either (they kind of held their won against Austria up to a point but really lost to Russia) If they could concentrate their forces better whilst Crimea is in open rebellion it could help, Russian supply lines wouldn't be very secure. See rebellion (1777-82) section here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Empire

Now had the Ottomans been quicker in mobilising they could've gotten there in time to support the rebels. Russia could be distracted enough by that not to intervene.

Now, again overall unlikely but my thoughts give them a slim chance of plausibility (either that or their just delusional musings, lol :D)
 
Yes, Catherine agreed because Maria asked her. Thanks for that!
But I think the Russians would be willing to participate if the Austrians decisively beat the Prussian army. They definitely disliked a strong Prussia expanding eastward more than they disliked Austria exchanging a part of Netherlands or Further Austria for a part of Bavaria. If Prussia was significantly defeated, PLC would probably be owned by Russia completely alone with no one interfering. Of course, the promise of Ottoman territories in the future might be even more tempting. And Swedes would join to retake the part of Pomerania lost in 1720 but only if they see a victory is possible (still, they are probably going to be more successful lead by Gustav III than led by the Riksdag and the Hats party). So we get something like the SYW, except these would be two separate conflicts- UK against France, Spain and the Dutch (and the U.S. of course) and Prussia against Austria, Russia and Sweden in continental Europe. Except Hanover takes part in something. French probably won't get too much involved against Prussia, though they could get some territories on the border of the ANL that were promised in SYW (Ypres, Mns, Chimay...), no matter who owns the rest of the region.
Anyway, I've been planning a TL in the 18th century for a while now, and read a lot about the Seven Years' War, Bavarian Succession etc. so it would be nice to see some more comments on this :D
 
I also had mentioned that I was thinking of writing an alternate history of the 18th and 19th centuries- I'd be happy to compare ideas or offer input if you'd be interested. You can bounce ideas on this thread.
 
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