Questions: how realistic are these ideas for the 7YW with POD in 1759.

I'm thinking of a short TL in which the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg doesn't happen. So the POD is in August-September of 1759.

In short:
Germany: Berlin falls, Prussia surrenders, and now Austria and Sweden start a campaign in Hanover so that France can focus on the colonies more.
Elsewhere: Charles III smells blood and joins the war early. France and Spain make plans to counterattack at sea and in the colonies.

1. How likely is Portugal to join if Prussia has already been defeated and France isn't as preoccupied with Hanover anymore?

2. How realistic would it be that Gibraltar actually falls this time (siege starts in late 1759)? From what I've read Britain had only really developed the northern fortifications by now. While the southern and seaside fortifications were still the same ones build by the Spanish 2 centuries earlier and were fairly vulnerable. On the Spanish side meanwhile the Lines of Contravallation had already been build, providing the Spanish with the base of operations they had lacked in the previous siege of 1727.
It is of course possible that the siege still takes too long and the war ends before it falls.

3. Could a combined Franco-Spanish effort break the British blockade of France and rekindle the war in the Americas? The Battle of Lagos happened before Spain joined, but Quiberon is after Spain joined (so the outcome of that battle could be different, or it might not even happen in the first place). Could France now successfully reinforce de Lévis' forces, retake Quebec, and retake Guadeloupe?

I'll probably let the war in India run out the same as OTL, but France might retain more of its holdings due to successes elsewhere.
 
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