Questions for a TL of my own

My point being, you wouldn't be able to avoid a blockade by going through a route also controlled by those who are blockading the original route. If it is Italy doing the buying, then reselling to the CP, then it becomes a diplomatic problem, but not intrinsically different from the one Britain already faced in preventing Americans from traversing the North Sea. If this pushes Italy towards war, all the better.

My POD is as of yet undecided. Austria-Hungary will keep the Russians out of Galicia in the beginning of the war, which makes Italy pause for consideration. How they do that, I don't know. If there are fewer Russians around to do the fighting, perhaps, as would be caused by early Ottoman or Romanian entry to the war. That presents its own problems, however.
 
The US stays out of the war permanently, and cuts economic ties with the Entente at the same time as Italy joins the war.
Biggest problem but realizable

US economy was booming with WW1 needs for Entente, like banker J.P. Morgan who gave billion on Credits to Britain and France, while Morgans own factories that Supply the Entente military.
But there were Issues with neutral USA and The Entente like Free trading vs British blockade.
because US companies wanted to sell there products to both sides of War to make Profit.
Then happen series of events like infamous Zimmerman Telegram and suddenly the USA was joining the Entente on April 6, 1917.

But there could be also series of events that could lead to USA to join Central power instead !
Like Response to Irish Uprise and way the British bloody suppressed it or accidental attack on US freighter by british Navy
Last one could force the US to send there Navy to protect there US freighters
 
In a CP victory scenario, Austria-Hungary is most likely not going to splinter - it only splintered because the state collapsed utterly, and not until then did the fringe nationalist movements win the influence to splinter Austria-Hungary.

The Germans were commited to keeping Austria-Hungary as their only reliable (and still grand power) ally, allowing it to splinter will make the Germans weaker against any Russo-French resurgence in the long run, and not aiding their fellow Kaiser in his time of need will severely (to the extent of making Germany a pariah) limit the valu eof their diplomatic promises, which was a VERY important tool in this era.

Austria-Hungary rebuilt its army basically from scratch three times during the war and lost 80% of the men they deployed, fought on three fronts and faced some of the worst economic hardships of the war, and still kept together for four years. I have a really hard time seeing them suddenly collapse and splinter if they actually win and relieve those economic hardships with re-opened trade and resources from the sattelites to the east.

You can have the CP win like this:

1. Have the Austro-Hungarian B-staffel be depoyed to the east and the Austro-Hungarians be focused on the defence there (perhaps with local counter-offensives) in coordination with the German strategy of defence in the east and defeating France first.
2. Austria-Hungary thus takes far less casualties early war, do not have their pre-war army destroyed in Galizia and Przemysl and have a much better cadre to build on when they start getting modern artillery to their troops in late 1914, earlyy 1915.
3. The Gorlice-Tarnow offensive is thus more successful, causing the Russians more casualties.
4. Serbia falls to a joint Austrohungarian-German-Serbian offensive with more Austro-Hungarian focus
5. The opening of communicatios with the Ottomans happens slightly earlier and slightly better Austro-Hungarian and German economic and military situation (the Austro-Hungarians are better off, the Germans need to use less aid for Austria-Hungary) leaves more resources for the Ottomans (along with more devastating losses for the Russians, meaning less Russian strength), who do slighly better in the Caucasus, meaning the Trabzon coal fields do not fall to the Russians, leaving the Ottoman economy in far better shape.
6. Italy, seeing Austria-Hungary as stronger and more competent, remains neutral. Italy continues to be a hole in the blockade, improving the CP but especially Austro-Hungarian economy.
7. Germany agrees to focus east 1916, abandoning plans for a Verdun offensive. Huge CP successes on the eastern front casues Romania to join the CPs to gain Moldavia and Odessa.
8. Russian unrest and devastating defeats in 1916 causes the Czar to abdicate. The interim government tries to continue to fight, but is toppled by a peace faction (which might or might not be the Bolcheviks) winter 1916-17 and peace is made in March 1917.
9. The Germans move some of their troops west and start a series of offensives on the western front, nothing decisive though, but they do advance and both sides suffer horrible casualties.
10. The Austro-Hungarians send enough troops to help the Bulgarians contain and then reduce the Saloniki bridgehead. By Summer 1917, the French and British realise they need the troops in Palestine and France more and evacuate. The Austro-Hungarians and Bulgarians are unable to prevent them from getting most of their men and equipment out, just like at Gallipoli.
11. The Ottomans now control the Baku oil fields and their increased success kills the Arab revolt pretty much in its cradle. Increased German and Ottoman influence in Persia fills the gap that the Russians have left, and the British abandon their advance towards Bagdad to move those troops to secure Persia. The Ottomans thus have only one front - Palestine - where they and their German and Austro-Hungarian advisors and expeditionary forces manage to hold the British.
12. Austro-Hungarian control over Ukraine and especially the coal fields of Donbass allows them, together with the Germans and Ottomans to promise Italy to deliver the coal and oil they need.
13. The US remains neutral, and by late 1917, the Entente is running out of secuity to provide for their loans. They get a little unsecured at high interest, but in general, their credit dries up. The Entente economical situation worsens considerably.
14. By Spring 1918, the situation in the east has stabilised and German can move more troops to the west. Austria-Hungary demobilizes parts of her army and "tops up" parts of the rest with the best men and equipment, especially heavy artillery and sends two armies to the west front and one to Italy, which joins the war on the CP side. The following Spring and Summer offensives cause the French army to collapse and the French government to seek peace.
15. The British withdraw from the continent and seeks and gets a white peace, as there's no way for the CP to get to Britain in any reasonable timeframe.
 
The weak parts are a) Italy joining the war on the side of Austria-Hungary and b) the US totally abandoning the Entente. Is it possible for the US to start selling weapons to the Central Powers when the balance of power shifts?

In addition to the territorial issues with Austria-Hungary, as you say Italy's problem is their commerce is controlled by the UK. The Mediterranean can only be access by the Straits of Gibraltar or the Suez Canal, both of which are controlled by the British. If Britain suspects Italy is sending supplies to Germany, they could shut that trade off with a snap of the fingers. And Italy at the time was dependent on imports for such basics as coal, especially in winter. Joining the Central Power puts Italy in an attrition war they simply cannot win. The Entente will access to the rest of the world, and Italy will not. Italy had good reasons for not joining the Central Powers and then joining the Entente. You might need an early POD where the RM convinces the Kaierlichmarine that if Britain chooses a distant blockade (as they did historically) instead of a close blockade (as Germany hoped), commerce might be shut out completely for the Central Powers. Thus stockpiling imported supplies as a precaution might be a good idea in the event of war, and the earlier the better. And in Italy's case, stockpiling supplies for domestic consumption in addition what might be needed to supply wartime industry would be prudent. In the event of war, Italy will still be cut off from overseas trade, and will have a time limit on their ability to contribute to the war, but will be in a better position to deny the Entente the central Med and put pressure of France.

Keeping the US out might be harder. First, you really have to dial back the stupidity and arrogance in Germany's diplomatic corps. That means no Zimmerman Telegram, and as has been said, definitely no unrestricted submarine warfare. Perhaps in light of the Italian warning about imports, Germany invests earlier in more merchant submarines like the Deutschland (UA-155, IIRC; try an internet search). Maybe a dozen or so such hulls, 2 or 3 calling in various US ports every week f be enough. Keeping German commerce open with America might help keep the US out of the war if other provocations are not there. You also might need to have someone other than Wilson as president, or a Congress that presses him very hard to keep his promise "American boys will not die in foreign wars" given a lack of German/Central Powers provocation.

My initial thoughts,
 
Biggest problem but realizable

US economy was booming with WW1 needs for Entente, like banker J.P. Morgan who gave billion on Credits to Britain and France, while Morgans own factories that Supply the Entente military.
But there were Issues with neutral USA and The Entente like Free trading vs British blockade.
because US companies wanted to sell there products to both sides of War to make Profit.
Then happen series of events like infamous Zimmerman Telegram and suddenly the USA was joining the Entente on April 6, 1917.

But there could be also series of events that could lead to USA to join Central power instead !
Like Response to Irish Uprise and way the British bloody suppressed it or accidental attack on US freighter by british Navy
Last one could force the US to send there Navy to protect there US freighters
Thank you, but I know most of this and I have a scenario for how the US stays neutral. I don't want them to go so far as joining the CP, but rather provide economic support. Shells, bullets, the like. Also, put them in a position of friendliness with the Central Powers for whatever developments may follow in a few decades.

In a CP victory scenario, Austria-Hungary is most likely not going to splinter - it only splintered because the state collapsed utterly, and not until then did the fringe nationalist movements win the influence to splinter Austria-Hungary.

The Germans were commited to keeping Austria-Hungary as their only reliable (and still grand power) ally, allowing it to splinter will make the Germans weaker against any Russo-French resurgence in the long run, and not aiding their fellow Kaiser in his time of need will severely (to the extent of making Germany a pariah) limit the valu eof their diplomatic promises, which was a VERY important tool in this era.

Austria-Hungary rebuilt its army basically from scratch three times during the war and lost 80% of the men they deployed, fought on three fronts and faced some of the worst economic hardships of the war, and still kept together for four years. I have a really hard time seeing them suddenly collapse and splinter if they actually win and relieve those economic hardships with re-opened trade and resources from the sattelites to the east.

Here's a scenario. Austria-Hungary remains whole, but despite victory, border friction with the Italians and a general feeling of national discontent in the 1920s will lead to fascist coups in Budapest and Vienna. The latter will succeed, but it will result in the empire shattering. Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia will be the first major nations to arise. Austrian fascists will attempt to reconquer the rest of the Empire, but fail due to Germany sending military aid to the new nations. Beaten, Austria will instead finance a civil war in Hungary, which will succeed in the 1930s. The rest of the Empire remains a loyal ally of Germany, dead set against the fascists.

You can have the CP win like this:

snip.
This is an excellent scenario. My main issue is that the war ends with everyone a little too happy. I want this war to drag on all the way to the end of 1918, and I certainly don't want to accelerate the Russian Revolution. I want every nation to be in it for keeps. Germany is going to want to utterly castrate the Entente to prevent a repeat of the war, and feed its allies enough gains for them to remain loyal. The Entente knows this, so they know that defeat will ruin them as great powers. The United States selling weapons to Germany means that the Entente can no longer win the war outright, so they have to fight for every inch in Europe to try and force Germany to the table. By war's end, France will need to be mostly occupied and with its army dead. Britain the same, except the occupied part. Because they're fighting a defensive war at this point, the CP will take grievous losses achieving this scenario. In the end, Germany is going to have hegemony over Europe. Austria-Hungary will break down as described above. Ottomans will collapse as OTL. Germany will have at least one unsuccessful coup/revolution. And France, Britain, and Russia are all going to go fascist (the latter ue to overzealous efforts of the Germans themselves).


In addition to the territorial issues with Austria-Hungary, as you say Italy's problem is their commerce is controlled by the UK. The Mediterranean can only be access by the Straits of Gibraltar or the Suez Canal, both of which are controlled by the British. If Britain suspects Italy is sending supplies to Germany, they could shut that trade off with a snap of the fingers. And Italy at the time was dependent on imports for such basics as coal, especially in winter. Joining the Central Power puts Italy in an attrition war they simply cannot win. The Entente will access to the rest of the world, and Italy will not. Italy had good reasons for not joining the Central Powers and then joining the Entente. You might need an early POD where the RM convinces the Kaierlichmarine that if Britain chooses a distant blockade (as they did historically) instead of a close blockade (as Germany hoped), commerce might be shut out completely for the Central Powers. Thus stockpiling imported supplies as a precaution might be a good idea in the event of war, and the earlier the better. And in Italy's case, stockpiling supplies for domestic consumption in addition what might be needed to supply wartime industry would be prudent. In the event of war, Italy will still be cut off from overseas trade, and will have a time limit on their ability to contribute to the war, but will be in a better position to deny the Entente the central Med and put pressure of France.
Might Italy stockpile resources in the 1915-late 1917 time period? This is the time when they have decided not to join the Entente, but still haven't backed the CP. It makes sense that they would buy up extra coal, maybe introduce limited rationing, in order to keep their options open. Also, as I said above, I want them to be desperate by the time a peace is agreed upon/enforced. A coal shortage due to war lasting longer than expected would be a good thing.



Keeping the US out might be harder. First, you really have to dial back the stupidity and arrogance in Germany's diplomatic corps. That means no Zimmerman Telegram, and as has been said, definitely no unrestricted submarine warfare. Perhaps in light of the Italian warning about imports, Germany invests earlier in more merchant submarines like the Deutschland (UA-155, IIRC; try an internet search). Maybe a dozen or so such hulls, 2 or 3 calling in various US ports every week f be enough. Keeping German commerce open with America might help keep the US out of the war if other provocations are not there. You also might need to have someone other than Wilson as president, or a Congress that presses him very hard to keep his promise "American boys will not die in foreign wars" given a lack of German/Central Powers provocation.

My initial thoughts,
Well, I think Germany will be less desperate to deny the Entente an advantage than OTL, as they won't have the additional stress of Italy, and Romania might also join them (I'm undecided). If they limit submarine interdiction, then the US will be less likely to enter the war, and the Zimmerman telegram won't need to be sent. I don't want Germany doing too well, like I said. I don't want this war over much earlier than OTL, and later in the same year would be great.
 
Here's a scenario. Austria-Hungary remains whole, but despite victory, border friction with the Italians and a general feeling of national discontent in the 1920s will lead to fascist coups in Budapest and Vienna. The latter will succeed, but it will result in the empire shattering. Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia will be the first major nations to arise. Austrian fascists will attempt to reconquer the rest of the Empire, but fail due to Germany sending military aid to the new nations. Beaten, Austria will instead finance a civil war in Hungary, which will succeed in the 1930s. The rest of the Empire remains a loyal ally of Germany, dead set against the fascists.

Austria-Hungary are far stronger than Italy - they won against Italy in 1866, despite having a majority of their forces facing the Prussians in the north. The Italians know they cannot force anything from the Austro-Hungarians by themselves and Austria-Hungary is bound to have Germany's support.

I think you under-estimate how much Russia, Austria-Hungary and even Germany relied on the prestige of their rulers and armies as a foundation of their states. All three states collapsed when it became evident their armies could not bring victory and every ethnic and social strife came out to play when there was no army to keep the state together. If the army is not defeated, that is not going to happen. If there's food to buy, coal to burn and law and order as the state is not collapsing, the fringe movements will not come out of the woodworks.

Why would some kind of fringe fascist movement attempt a coup in Austria-Hungary, and why on earth would the Germans allow it, even if they attempted and succeeded? The Germans would support whatever government the Emperor supports. Both the Italian fascists and the German nazists had their leader appointed prime minister (by the monarch and the president, respectively), they did not coup the government. The Germans have a vested interest in keeping Austria-Hungary together as a strong (or at least as strong as possible) ally. While Austria-Hungary may still splinter, there is absolutely no reason for the Germans to suddenly start supporting the splinter nations instead of Austria/Austria-Hungary.

A far more probably cause of Austria-Hungary splintering in a central powers victory scenario is the Hungarian nationalists going for full independence after a collapse of Ausgleich negotiations 1927 or 1937 and the Austrians completely and utterly bungling re-conquering them for some odd reason (considering half of Hungary was not Hungarian and the Austrians only had to promise full and equal suffrage for all males in Hungary for the Croats, Slovaks, Romanians, Siebenburger Germans and Serbs in Hungary to get their support, not even counting loyalists) and the Austro-Hungarian state collapsing because of it and various nationalists movements making a move then.
 
Last edited:
I think you under-estimate how much Russia, Austria-Hungary and even Germany relied on the prestige of their rulers and armies as a foundation of their states. All three states collapsed when it became evident their armies could not bring victory and every ethnic and social strife came out to play when there was no army to keep the state together. If the army is not defeated, that is not going to happen. If there's food to buy, coal to burn and law and order as the state is not collapsing, the fringe movements will not come out of the woodworks.
.

In a normal war i will agree, but this is the biggest conflict know to man till that moment; basically all depend on how long is the war has the longer it is and less the A-H have possibility to survive, even in victory in 1917 an entire generation will be lost, the treasure will be depleted, the army reputation severely tattered (it will be difficult to not aknolwedge that German support was beyond vital), the ruling enstablishment reputation gone well down as by 17 A-H is little more than a appendix of the German Empire.
Plus by this stage ethnic strife is not the only problem, people after having spilled so much blood will want reform of the goverment (as in Germany) and i doubt that the current leadership will be up the task.

Germany is not interested in a strong A-H (she can be competition), it's interested in a good and obedient sidekick, frankly if keeping it together is too much problematic and costly, they will go for dismember it (even if absorbing too much catholic austrian will not like anybody, but it will be seen as the lesser evil)

And in a war between an Italy not touched by WWI and an A-H that's just come out of 3/4 years of bloodsheed and in the middle of the aftermath strife, well i not bet on Wien unless Germany support her (but she also have her problem)
 
In a normal war i will agree, but this is the biggest conflict know to man till that moment; basically all depend on how long is the war has the longer it is and less the A-H have possibility to survive, even in victory in 1917 an entire generation will be lost, the treasure will be depleted, the army reputation severely tattered (it will be difficult to not aknolwedge that German support was beyond vital), the ruling enstablishment reputation gone well down as by 17 A-H is little more than a appendix of the German Empire.
Plus by this stage ethnic strife is not the only problem, people after having spilled so much blood will want reform of the goverment (as in Germany) and i doubt that the current leadership will be up the task.

Germany is not interested in a strong A-H (she can be competition), it's interested in a good and obedient sidekick, frankly if keeping it together is too much problematic and costly, they will go for dismember it (even if absorbing too much catholic austrian will not like anybody, but it will be seen as the lesser evil)

And in a war between an Italy not touched by WWI and an A-H that's just come out of 3/4 years of bloodsheed and in the middle of the aftermath strife, well i not bet on Wien unless Germany support her (but she also have her problem)

Any CP victory is going to have Austria-Hungary doing better than OTL, which means the army's repution is far less tattered. Still Austria-Hungary will be dependend on German support, which suites the Germans quite fine. They like it that way, and will continue to support Austria-Hungary. Austria-Hunary is no competition in this era, neither before, during and would not be after the war. There's no scenario I can think of where the Germans decide that a splintered Austria-Hungary is to prefer to propping it up.
 
I working on "Kaiserreich a TL" were Germany Empire survive WW1
here Austria-Hungary implode like OTL, the Austria and Other German speaking parts join German Empire.

but it not need to be this way.
The last Emperor of A-H Karl I. made a final proposal to members of His Empire to form a Confederation of Austria-Hungary
sadly the Hungary government under Sándor Wekerle, completely misunderstood the situation
Wekerle wanted a Austria-Hungary core state, this demands and follow delays, let to declaration of independence of Poland and Czechoslovak republic
while inside Hungary began uprise of Romanians, Slovenes and Croatian against ruling Hungarian upperclass

A Confederation of Austria-Hungary would be weaker, what would be in interest of German Empire.
 
Any CP victory is going to have Austria-Hungary doing better than OTL, which means the army's repution is far less tattered. Still Austria-Hungary will be dependend on German support, which suites the Germans quite fine. They like it that way, and will continue to support Austria-Hungary. Austria-Hunary is no competition in this era, neither before, during and would not be after the war. There's no scenario I can think of where the Germans decide that a splintered Austria-Hungary is to prefer to propping it up.

Fair less tattered and doing better than OTL can mean a many things and more importantly can't be enough, the real question is if A-H can survive a biennio rosso like period as it's not that OTL winner of the war had a nice and relaxing period when the shooting stop.
Oh i have some scenario, the Hungarian want more but also the rest of the ethnicity and the Magyar don't want it, there are reds, fascist and in general people that want reform but the goverment in general as the usual can't decide what to do, the economy is struggling due to the cost and time to going from wartime to peacetime. German will help, but she also had some internal problem with the socialist wanting to cash for their support and the junker not wanting giving them anything of serious, the economic recovery will be also dependent on how much they will extract from the Entente as the plan was to make them pay the cost of war...and i doubt that things will go smooth and finally there will be the rest of the new colonial empire in the est that will not really like the new masters
 
Fair less tattered and doing better than OTL can mean a many things and more importantly can't be enough, the real question is if A-H can survive a biennio rosso like period as it's not that OTL winner of the war had a nice and relaxing period when the shooting stop.
Oh i have some scenario, the Hungarian want more but also the rest of the ethnicity and the Magyar don't want it, there are reds, fascist and in general people that want reform but the goverment in general as the usual can't decide what to do, the economy is struggling due to the cost and time to going from wartime to peacetime. German will help, but she also had some internal problem with the socialist wanting to cash for their support and the junker not wanting giving them anything of serious, the economic recovery will be also dependent on how much they will extract from the Entente as the plan was to make them pay the cost of war...and i doubt that things will go smooth and finally there will be the rest of the new colonial empire in the est that will not really like the new masters
Those would goes far better, all the revolutionaries are gone or running(checz legion,etc), the magyar side is as weak as austrian one and they would not try to rock the boat, after the war unless we got massive reason, is very hard to see a disolution unless mandated by outside.
 
Those would goes far better, all the revolutionaries are gone or running(checz legion,etc), the magyar side is as weak as austrian one and they would not try to rock the boat, after the war unless we got massive reason, is very hard to see a disolution unless mandated by outside.

It's a little optimistic this evaluation, nations with a much stronger infrastructure and unity have suffered strife after that massacre, saying that a nation more at home in pre-revolutionary Europe than the 20th century; we had plenty of thread about the possible evolution of A-h and all see how the current situation cannot last but how was extremely difficult to change and now we add all the consequences of the war.

The reason of the Magyar to rock the boat will be various minority demanding same right, strikes, povertry, strife...as any other player in the biggest conflict seen by world till that moment; not considering that in general other reform will be demanded, more freedom, a functional reichstag, etc. etc. and more importantly food and work.
 
It's a little optimistic this evaluation, nations with a much stronger infrastructure and unity have suffered strife after that massacre, saying that a nation more at home in pre-revolutionary Europe than the 20th century; we had plenty of thread about the possible evolution of A-h and all see how the current situation cannot last but how was extremely difficult to change and now we add all the consequences of the war.
That is the issue can end anywhere depending the butterflies, but OTL give us evidence would collapse as could survive easily as take all the worst scenario alongside foreing meddling, so can end anywhere
 
That is the issue can end anywhere depending the butterflies, but OTL give us evidence would collapse as could survive easily as take all the worst scenario alongside foreing meddling, so can end anywhere

No, sorry but no; end the war by 1916 and loss (both human and material) and things can be salvaged, operative word is can, it will hard, plenty of blood and success is not guaranteed.
End the war by 1917...and it's too much for the A-H system to digest expecially with Italy and Romania (no Italy and there is a very strong possibilty that also Romania will stay out and that can be both a blessing and a complication) still ready to get piece of her.
Frankly a fascist or communist coup can be the only things capable of keep the thing together, A-H always lacked an unfying factor except the monarchy and once Cecco Beppe die it will gone, this ideology are beyond ethnicity and can create the glue necessary.
 
Top