In a CP victory scenario, Austria-Hungary is most likely not going to splinter - it only splintered because the state collapsed utterly, and not until then did the fringe nationalist movements win the influence to splinter Austria-Hungary.
The Germans were commited to keeping Austria-Hungary as their only reliable (and still grand power) ally, allowing it to splinter will make the Germans weaker against any Russo-French resurgence in the long run, and not aiding their fellow Kaiser in his time of need will severely (to the extent of making Germany a pariah) limit the valu eof their diplomatic promises, which was a VERY important tool in this era.
Austria-Hungary rebuilt its army basically from scratch three times during the war and lost 80% of the men they deployed, fought on three fronts and faced some of the worst economic hardships of the war, and still kept together for four years. I have a really hard time seeing them suddenly collapse and splinter if they actually win and relieve those economic hardships with re-opened trade and resources from the sattelites to the east.
You can have the CP win like this:
1. Have the Austro-Hungarian B-staffel be depoyed to the east and the Austro-Hungarians be focused on the defence there (perhaps with local counter-offensives) in coordination with the German strategy of defence in the east and defeating France first.
2. Austria-Hungary thus takes far less casualties early war, do not have their pre-war army destroyed in Galizia and Przemysl and have a much better cadre to build on when they start getting modern artillery to their troops in late 1914, earlyy 1915.
3. The Gorlice-Tarnow offensive is thus more successful, causing the Russians more casualties.
4. Serbia falls to a joint Austrohungarian-German-Serbian offensive with more Austro-Hungarian focus
5. The opening of communicatios with the Ottomans happens slightly earlier and slightly better Austro-Hungarian and German economic and military situation (the Austro-Hungarians are better off, the Germans need to use less aid for Austria-Hungary) leaves more resources for the Ottomans (along with more devastating losses for the Russians, meaning less Russian strength), who do slighly better in the Caucasus, meaning the Trabzon coal fields do not fall to the Russians, leaving the Ottoman economy in far better shape.
6. Italy, seeing Austria-Hungary as stronger and more competent, remains neutral. Italy continues to be a hole in the blockade, improving the CP but especially Austro-Hungarian economy.
7. Germany agrees to focus east 1916, abandoning plans for a Verdun offensive. Huge CP successes on the eastern front casues Romania to join the CPs to gain Moldavia and Odessa.
8. Russian unrest and devastating defeats in 1916 causes the Czar to abdicate. The interim government tries to continue to fight, but is toppled by a peace faction (which might or might not be the Bolcheviks) winter 1916-17 and peace is made in March 1917.
9. The Germans move some of their troops west and start a series of offensives on the western front, nothing decisive though, but they do advance and both sides suffer horrible casualties.
10. The Austro-Hungarians send enough troops to help the Bulgarians contain and then reduce the Saloniki bridgehead. By Summer 1917, the French and British realise they need the troops in Palestine and France more and evacuate. The Austro-Hungarians and Bulgarians are unable to prevent them from getting most of their men and equipment out, just like at Gallipoli.
11. The Ottomans now control the Baku oil fields and their increased success kills the Arab revolt pretty much in its cradle. Increased German and Ottoman influence in Persia fills the gap that the Russians have left, and the British abandon their advance towards Bagdad to move those troops to secure Persia. The Ottomans thus have only one front - Palestine - where they and their German and Austro-Hungarian advisors and expeditionary forces manage to hold the British.
12. Austro-Hungarian control over Ukraine and especially the coal fields of Donbass allows them, together with the Germans and Ottomans to promise Italy to deliver the coal and oil they need.
13. The US remains neutral, and by late 1917, the Entente is running out of secuity to provide for their loans. They get a little unsecured at high interest, but in general, their credit dries up. The Entente economical situation worsens considerably.
14. By Spring 1918, the situation in the east has stabilised and German can move more troops to the west. Austria-Hungary demobilizes parts of her army and "tops up" parts of the rest with the best men and equipment, especially heavy artillery and sends two armies to the west front and one to Italy, which joins the war on the CP side. The following Spring and Summer offensives cause the French army to collapse and the French government to seek peace.
15. The British withdraw from the continent and seeks and gets a white peace, as there's no way for the CP to get to Britain in any reasonable timeframe.