[FONT="]Had Mary I of [/FONT][FONT="]England[/FONT][FONT="] executed Elizabeth then Mary Queen of Scots, while the next closest heir, would not certainly have succeeded to the throne.[/FONT]
[FONT="]1. Henry VIII had excluded the Scottish line from succession (though Mary I could certainly have changed this in order to safeguard Catholicism and the legitimate Catholic succession) and, more significantly[/FONT]
[FONT="]2. English people (or those that mattered) would have been very reluctant to support the accession to the throne of the Queen of Scotland as she was married to Dauphin Francis (later Francis II) heir to the throne of [/FONT][FONT="]France[/FONT][FONT="]. Could [/FONT][FONT="]England[/FONT][FONT="] have agreed to a succession that would in due course, subsume [/FONT][FONT="]England[/FONT][FONT="] in a great French led empire including [/FONT][FONT="]France[/FONT][FONT="], [/FONT][FONT="]Scotland[/FONT][FONT="] and [/FONT][FONT="]England[/FONT][FONT="]? (This would have been the empire of the son of Mary and Francis.) Surely NO.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Additionally, could [/FONT][FONT="]Spain[/FONT][FONT="] have accepted this? Methinks no – and the best evidence is that they were not prepared to support Mary Queen of Scot’s claim (even surreptitiously) until the late 1560s (even though Francis’ death in 1560 broke her direct link to the French Royal family) and, indeed repeatedly persuaded the various Popes between 1558 and 1570 not to excommunicate the Protestant Elizabeth because of their fears of French advantage from Mary’s accession.[/FONT]
[FONT="]So what might have happened in 1558:[/FONT]
[FONT="]Option 1. English accept Mary, Queen of Scots as their monarch. French, elated, would probably not have accepted the compromise peace terms of Cateau Cambrésis, April 1559. With [/FONT][FONT="]England[/FONT][FONT="] swapping onto the French side they would probably have held out for better terms. As an aside Henry II was killed at a tournament celebrating the peace (and an associated marriage). [With France stronger and Henry II still alive – France continues to fight for Italian advantages; Henry’s superior political skills reduce French religious / political divisions and civil wars may be avoided or have a less serious impact.] But … Francis, Mary’s husband, dies anyway in 1560. Mary (now Queen of France and [/FONT][FONT="]England[/FONT][FONT="]) is no longer connected to [/FONT][FONT="]France[/FONT][FONT="] – very eligible. IOTL she was sent packing to [/FONT][FONT="]Scotland[/FONT][FONT="]; ITTL the French would make sure she married a satisfactory French / pro-French husband. Who? Another member of the French Royal Family? Quite possibly – but that would make conflict with [/FONT][FONT="]Spain[/FONT][FONT="] inevitable – let alone English reaction. A French noble? Quite possibly. Another candidate? How about the son of her cousin Margaret, Countess of Lennox – Henry Stuart, Lord Darnley. This is what she does. Eventually we have James VI and I (maybe under another name). OTL James was brought up by Protestant Scottish nobles; ITTL he would be brought up by pro-French Catholics – wouldn’t marry a Danish princess …[/FONT]
[FONT="]Option 2. English don’t accept Mary, Queen of Scots on nationalistic grounds. Who would they go for instead? The choice is between the lines of Henry VIII’s two sisters, Margaret and Mary. Margaret’s line leads to Mary Queen of Scots, etc. Mary’s line leads in less familiar directions:[/FONT]
- [FONT="]The line of Frances, Duchess of Suffolk (1517-1559). But this was the Protestant family of Lady Jane Grey against whom Mary I had struggled for the throne in 1553. I cannot see that Mary or her Catholic parliament would have found any of [/FONT][FONT="]Frances[/FONT][FONT="] family acceptable. This would exclude Lady Catherine Grey (1540-1568) and Lady Mary Grey (1545-1578).[/FONT]
- [FONT="]The line of Eleanor Clifford, Countess of Cumberland (1519-1547). Her surviving daughter, Lady Margaret Clifford (1540-1596) married in 1554 (i.e. before the POD) Henry Stanley, Earl of Derby. Their surviving male children were Ferdinando (1559-94) and William (1561-1642). Ferdinando had a daughter, Lady Anne Stanley …[/FONT]
[FONT="]Henry Stanley (4th Earl of Derby) was a conventional Protestant during the OTL reign of [/FONT][FONT="]Elizabeth[/FONT][FONT="] but his father, Edward Stanley, was a close confidant of Mary I. What possibility Catholic conversion of Henry Stanley and Eleanor to secure the succession?[/FONT]
[FONT="]What about Margaret’s line? The principal line brings one to Mary Queen of Scots. But Margaret re-married Archibald Douglas, Earl of Angus. Their daughter was Margaret, Countess of Lennox (1515-1578). She was brought up at the English court, and was a close friend of Mary I of [/FONT][FONT="]England[/FONT][FONT="]. She was a Roman Catholic who married, in 1544, Matthew Stewart, Earl of Lennox. They had two sons, Henry Stuart, Lord Darnley (1545-67) who in OTL married Mary Queen of Scots and Charles Stuart, who married Elizabeth Cavendish who gave birth to their only daughter, Arbella Stuart (1575-1615).[/FONT]
[FONT="]England[/FONT][FONT="] could, therefore have been divided into a number of camps:[/FONT]
[FONT="]Margaret Lennox camp – almost legitimist, English nationalist, Roman Catholic, pro [/FONT][FONT="]Spain[/FONT][FONT="].[/FONT]
[FONT="]Lady Margaret Stanley – follows Henry VIII’s will exclusion of Margaret Tudor line. Religiously could be Catholic or Protestant, methinks, depending on circumstances.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Frances Suffolk line (plus her daughters Lady Catherine and Lady Mary Grey). Protestant.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Mary Queen of Scots. Legitimist, Roman Catholic but likely to destroy [/FONT][FONT="]England[/FONT][FONT="]’s independence.[/FONT]
[FONT="]I suspect that Mary I, as an English monarch as well as a Catholic, have been minded to exclude Mary, Queen of Scots, from the succession – partly following the will of Henry VIII – and to have allowed the succession of her friend, Margaret Lennox (as above). This would doubtless have been supported by her husband, Phillip II of [/FONT][FONT="]Spain[/FONT][FONT="].[/FONT]
[FONT="]Consequences …[/FONT]
- [FONT="]Religion. Catholic – does this lead to religious civil war?[/FONT]
- [FONT="]Foreign relations. [/FONT][FONT="]Spain[/FONT][FONT="] pleased and supportive. [/FONT][FONT="]France[/FONT][FONT="] furious.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Would it be interesting to consider a timeline on the above lines?[/FONT]