Question: When did WW2 become inevitable?

[TheSevenLeggedFallyDowner]

The question came up in one of my classes. For the purposes of this thread, WW2 is defined as "a war with Germany on one side and at least France and the UK on the other that takes place after WW1 but no later than 1950." In the class discussion, people seemed to fall into three categories. The first group argued that the Treaty of Versailles forced the various powers of Europe into a completely untenable position and that once it was signed it became inevitable that a second war would take place at some point. It was simply a matter of determining when, where, and under what circumstances that war would take place. The second group argued that the war was completely avoidable up until it actually started in 1939. There is always a chance that a peaceful solution could have been brokered to pull it back from the brink, so no war is ever inevitable until it starts. The third group argued for an intermediate date. Most cited either the Remilitarization of the Rhineland or the Anschluss as an event that convinced Hitler that the Western Allies would never confront him, thus making him overconfident. Hitler's overconfiedence made the war inevitable.

So AHers, set a date. At what point does avoiding WW2 (in some form) become ASB? What is the latest reasonable POD that could avoid a war?

 

[AYC]

As soon as the Nazis come to power, IMO. Hitler was stark raving mad and hell bent on conquering all of Europe for his "master race." The other European nations tried to appease him, and he used their refusal to directly confront him to manipulate them.

 

[Know Nothing]

When Germany annexed the rump Czechoslovakia in March 1939.

 

[King Midas]

The question came up in one of my classes. For the purposes of this thread, WW2 is defined as "a war with Germany on one side and at least France and the UK on the other that takes place after WW1 but no earlier than 1950."

Am I misreading you, or do you mean "later?"

 

[TheSevenLeggedFallyDowner]

Am I misreading you, or do you mean "later?"

Yes.

<THE GREAT GOD IAN DEMANDS A SACRIFICE OF FILLER! ALL HAIL IAN!>

 

[Matt Wiser]

Once Hitler swallowed up the rest of Czechoslovakia, the die was cast. Chamberlain had been made to look like a fool (and he was naive, thinking that he could turn Hitler away from war when the Bohemian Corporal wanted one), and had no choice. It wasn't a matter if there would be a war, but when.....

 

[Draco]

Finishing off Czechoslovakia is only the point of no return if Hitler remains in power if you remove him and a few others it might be possible to come back from the brink. I would say that the real point of no return for war was when the German economy passed the point of being able to avoid a collapse without an influx or war spoils.

 

[The Wookiee]

November 1918. WWI solved nothing, and the Treaty of Versailles did far more harm than good. The rejection of the League of Nations by the U.S. Senate put the final nail in that coffin. The rise of Hitler made WWII a far more grisly conflict, but it was coming nonetheless. I wonder if historians will think the same way about Gulf Wars I and II? The difference being Saddam was in charge during both, of course.

 

[DuQuense]

Sometimes in the early 30's when the collapse of Free trade during the Depression, made any easing of the Versailles treaty impossible Politically in France.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

I wouldn't call it as early as Versailles, Versailles admittedly screwed things up in a lot of different ways for Germany and ultimately whatever came about in Germany as a reaction to Versailles was going to be both very radical and very ugly. Even a surviving Weimar Republic would not easily forget such a thing, the French republic certainly nursed the grudge from the Franco-Prussian War for a good long time.

The aforementioned Depression destroyed everything, especially after Hoover let out a bombshell like the HS Tariff into the light of day. That made it very possible that the days of the Weimar Republic would be numbered at that point. I would agree with the poster who said Nazi Germany made a war inevitable, because for all we know we could've had more generic right-wing party that was nationalist but not as vicious about it as the Nazis that simply becomes a helpful proxy against the communists. Or we could give the communists the Reichstag election and either have them A. sell their immortal souls to the Soviet Union or B. be a total pariah from Europe that pursues its own policy independent of Moscow.

 

[The Red]

August 1939, Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, made the idea of Nazi victory at least seem possible to Hitler.

 

[mats]

i am torn between the occupation of the rhineland or sudetenland and the treaty of versailles, wich we can then trace back to the assasination of franz ferdinant, but the roots of that conflic are in the franco-prussian war IMHO, wich would bring us to the Ems telegram, wich we can trace back to the coup of Napoleon III, wich we can trace back to the napoleonic wars, where in my opion is the root of the franco-german conflict.

 

[MarkA]

Sometimes in the early 30's when the collapse of Free trade during the Depression, made any easing of the Versailles treaty impossible Politically in France.

What do you mean?

Britain had gotten French approval for the abolition of reparations when the US refused to accept the decision! Not content with bleeding its previous allies dry, the rapacious interests that controlled the US senate was not about to let their exploitation of the German economy stop.

 

[tuore]

It became inevitable right away. The peace deals were so harsh, everyone knew Germany could never pay the reparations. The financial issues and the harsh demands encouraged a strong regime to take power and stand against them.

 

[RMcD94]

As soon as the Nazis come to power, IMO. Hitler was stark raving mad and hell bent on conquering all of Europe for his "master race." The other European nations tried to appease him, and he used their refusal to directly confront him to manipulate them.

You think it's impossible for the Nazi's to fall?

 

[Adler]

Even without Hitler WW2 would have happened. As Versailles was too harsh. Even if it was de facto renounced in large parts later, especially the de facto ending of the military restrictions in end of 1932 (sic!), and even if Hitler would stayed the Bohemian corporal, war would have broken out because of Poland. Poland would never ever had given up the Corridore and France backed up Poland. And it would be ASB to think France giving up Poland.
Thus all in all Versailles lead to ww2. Versailles is the conditio sine qua non for Hitler, as a dictator, and ww2 but not the Holocaust.

Adler

 

[Rudi Maxer]

You claim that even a democratic Germany eventually invade Poland anyway?

 

[Snake Featherston]

Are we talking European or Asian WWII? Asian WWII was inevitable from the 1920s onward, when Imperial Japanese Army leaders picked up the habit of independent action. European WWII was inevitable in 1939 after the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

 

[CalBear]

November 1918. WWI solved nothing, and the Treaty of Versailles did far more harm than good. The rejection of the League of Nations by the U.S. Senate put the final nail in that coffin. The rise of Hitler made WWII a far more grisly conflict, but it was coming nonetheless. I wonder if historians will think the same way about Gulf Wars I and II? The difference being Saddam was in charge during both, of course.

Amen reverend!

 

[AYC]

You think it's impossible for the Nazi's to fall?

At some point, maybe, but I find that hard to envision after Hitler comes to power. It took him less than a year to essentially ban all opposition to him ans turn Germany into a police state, and he was very good at using the people's humiliation at being defeated in WWI to serve his own goals.

Maybe if Hitler was killed at some point prior to the war and someone saner came to power, WWII may have been averted. But as long as Hitler stayed in power, his ambitions for Europe made WWII more or less inevitable.