Question on battleships at night

While this is what the British thought, the reality of our timeline strongly indicates that the British thinking was wrong. The fall of France was one factor, as it made the KM--particularly the U boats far more of a problem than the UK had planned for. And, of course, Japan was better than the UK anticipated.
It kind of looks like the British could have handled any two of Germany/Italy/Japan, then - at least navally and aerially.
 
Well, the One Power Standard Fleet looks like considerable overkill to fight the Japanese, actually (which is what you want, of course). As of 1934, for example, the Japanese have two fleet carriers plus one building - so the One Power Standard Fleet is recommending about 3:1 odds.
I don't have time to look it up, but IIRC the total numbers of naval aircraft required in the 1934 Report and the expected size of the Japanese FAA in 1939 were similar. However, the number of British aircraft carriers was determined by the number of aircraft the fleet thought it needed so it wasn't as simple matter of parity in numbers of ships and aircraft.

Also the 70 cruiser requirement was 25 to screen the fleet (5 cruisers for ever 3 battleships) plus 45 for trade protection (the formula upon which that was worked out was based on the number of merchant ships at sea and the length of the trade routes).

The 100 cruiser requirement was 55 to screen the fleet and 45 for trade protection.

Similarly destroyer requirements weren't based on the size of the Japanese and German destroyer fleets, it was the number required to screen a given number of battleships, local defence and trade protection.

In fact the only requirement that was based on the size of the German and Japanese fleets was battleships, which IIRC (and I'm very unsure if I have) was Japan x 50% + 6.
 
While this is what the British thought, the reality of our timeline strongly indicates that the British thinking was wrong. The fall of France was one factor, as it made the KM--particularly the U boats far more of a problem than the UK had planned for. And, of course, Japan was better than the UK anticipated.

British strategy certainly failed to predict the future. But I don't think they were wrong to think that they could handle two of Germany, Italy and Japan, with France as an ally/neutral and the Soviets neutral.

Part of this depends on what you mean by "handle". If you want to decisively defeat the IJN, then, yes, you'll need an appropriate fleet. But if you just want to hang on to Malaya and Sumatra, then you should be able to do that with the appropriate defensive forces - subs, troops and aircraft - which also counts as "handling the situation" - at least until you're support a proper offensive.

Take Germany and Japan. There is no war in the Med, and France is still standing, so there's no need to send arms to Russia. It's plausible that there's enough resources and strategic depth (Indochina) available to soak up a Japanese attack, although it depends on how France is doing really.

Or Italy and Japan. An odd combination possibly, and the threat of Germany joining in must be borne in mind, but Italy has no ability to interdict the Cape route and only a limited ability to attack in North Africa and so even if the Med is closed then there should be plenty of forces available to be sent east.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
1) Germany + Italy. Navally and aerially, the British were already winning this one by Dec 1941.

2) Germany + Japan. Suez is open, several BBs not lost, more troops and planes for Malaysia... I think this one's debatable, but the British would be in with a fair shot since they could send almost the entire navy east and could hold Singapore, and their subs could ravage the Japanese merchant marine.

3) Italy + Japan. Simply replacing the warships the Germans sunk (Royal Oak, Courageous, Glorious, Ark Royal, Hood...) and the threat of the U-boats, would make things a lot easier for the Admiralty.

Granted, there's room for debate, but I think it's a reasonable position that the Brits would have had a good chance.
 
1) Germany + Italy. Navally and aerially, the British were already winning this one by Dec 1941.

2) Germany + Japan. Suez is open, several BBs not lost, more troops and planes for Malaysia... I think this one's debatable, but the British would be in with a fair shot since they could send almost the entire navy east and could hold Singapore, and their subs could ravage the Japanese merchant marine.

3) Italy + Japan. Simply replacing the warships the Germans sunk (Royal Oak, Courageous, Glorious, Ark Royal, Hood...) and the threat of the U-boats, would make things a lot easier for the Admiralty.

Granted, there's room for debate, but I think it's a reasonable position that the Brits would have had a good chance.

but look at their commitments ... the RN needs 2 KG V class ships and at least 1 carrier to watch the Tirpitz, Scharnhorst, Gneisnau plus at least enough heavy cruisers to counter the Scheer and Prinz Eugen (figure at least 2 apiece). Force H has to be maintained to block the approaches to Gibraltar and assist Malta and strong enough to at least equal the Italians, so 2 BB, 1 CV, plus escorts, preferably at least one or two more CV

The Med Fleet out of Alexandria needs to match the Italians so at least 2-3 BB, 1 CV or more if possible, and sufficient cruisers to match the rather sizeable Italian cruiser force

The R class ships are suitable only for escort duties, while the Nelson and Rodney are too slow for the Med or to face the Japanese (all of their ships are at least as fast as the Queen Elizabeth class).

That doesn't leave much available... if Pound is willing to risk it, he has 2 KGV class ships (King George V and the still working up Duke of York), plus 1 Illustrious class CV for Home Fleet plus several cruisers

2 Queen Elizabeth class plus 1 CV, 1 CVL for Force H plus cruisers
3 Queen Elizabeth class plus 1 CV plus cruisers for Alexandria

That leaves the Prince of Wales, both battlecruisers, the R class ships, and the 2 Nelsons plus whatever CV he can scrape up (the loss of the Ark Royal really hurts here, as does the hammering the Indomitable took at Crete)

so the maximum size of Force Z as a fast attack force is 1 BB, 2 BC, 1 CV, plus cruisers and destroyers, although possibly a second force with 6 BB (the slow R class and Nelsons) as a back up. There aren't many CV or CVL to be had, and the destroyers are already thinly stretched as the Battle of the Atlantic is approaching a very dangerous period.

The Imperial Japanese Navy looks at this force and may just decide that committing its 6 battleships is worth the risk to obtain Singapore and the Dutch East Indies and it may just get a decisive victory to force the British to the peace table early if they win (remember its what the Japanese may think, not what we think that matters here) OR Yamamato decides that instead of hitting Hawaii, the ideal solution is to keep the existing strategy versus the Americans (let them come, attrit them in the Marshal Islands and a decisive battle close to Japan) while the Carriers and Battle Fleet together move south to eliminate the British Navy
 

TFSmith121

Banned
but look at their commitments ... the RN needs 2 KG V class ships and at least 1 carrier to watch the Tirpitz, Scharnhorst, Gneisnau plus at least enough heavy cruisers to counter the Scheer and Prinz Eugen (figure at least 2 apiece). Force H has to be maintained to block the approaches to Gibraltar and assist Malta and strong enough to at least equal the Italians, so 2 BB, 1 CV, plus escorts, preferably at least one or two more CV

The Med Fleet out of Alexandria needs to match the Italians so at least 2-3 BB, 1 CV or more if possible, and sufficient cruisers to match the rather sizeable Italian cruiser force

The R class ships are suitable only for escort duties, while the Nelson and Rodney are too slow for the Med or to face the Japanese (all of their ships are at least as fast as the Queen Elizabeth class).

That doesn't leave much available... if Pound is willing to risk it, he has 2 KGV class ships (King George V and the still working up Duke of York), plus 1 Illustrious class CV for Home Fleet plus several cruisers

2 Queen Elizabeth class plus 1 CV, 1 CVL for Force H plus cruisers
3 Queen Elizabeth class plus 1 CV plus cruisers for Alexandria

That leaves the Prince of Wales, both battlecruisers, the R class ships, and the 2 Nelsons plus whatever CV he can scrape up (the loss of the Ark Royal really hurts here, as does the hammering the Indomitable took at Crete)

so the maximum size of Force Z as a fast attack force is 1 BB, 2 BC, 1 CV, plus cruisers and destroyers, although possibly a second force with 6 BB (the slow R class and Nelsons) as a back up. There aren't many CV or CVL to be had, and the destroyers are already thinly stretched as the Battle of the Atlantic is approaching a very dangerous period.

The Imperial Japanese Navy looks at this force and may just decide that committing its 6 battleships is worth the risk to obtain Singapore and the Dutch East Indies and it may just get a decisive victory to force the British to the peace table early if they win (remember its what the Japanese may think, not what we think that matters here) OR Yamamato decides that instead of hitting Hawaii, the ideal solution is to keep the existing strategy versus the Americans (let them come, attrit them in the Marshal Islands and a decisive battle close to Japan) while the Carriers and Battle Fleet together move south to eliminate the British Navy

And it is worth noting that the Germans were still in a position to get Scharnhorst and Gneisenau into the eastern Atlantic from France and Tirpitz from Norway, so not only does the RN have to maintain both the Home Fleet and Force H capital ship/carrier deployments, they have to maintain the pool of older battleships in the Atlantic to cover key convoys, as well.

As it was, historically, the RN could cut back some of those commitments once the US was in the war and after the Channel Dash in February, 1942, but they could not do that in November-December, 1941, especially after the losses they sustained in the Med. Couple those realities with the pretty dismal record of the RN/RAN in action against the IJN in 1941-42 (2 capital ships, one carrier, four cruisers, and a dozen destroyers, escorts, and auxiliaries sunk by the Japanese), and suggesting the British were equipped and ready to face the IJN in the first year of the Pacific War is, to be charitable, hardly supported by the historical evidence.

Best,
 
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I have started my timeline, thanks to all who have helped on this thread. The premise is Japan trying to take on its enemies one at time, and involves battleships at night.
 
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