Question on Alternate German Provinces

[JJohnson]

This is a question more about how interiors would evolve if Germany had kept its 1871 borders (plus or minus Alsace-Lorraine and North Schleswig). What would the Kreise look like in Posen, Silesia, East Prussia, West Prussia, and Pomerania in 2012 had they remained in Germany?

What would the development trends be for the eastern part of the country? Would they industrialize or stay more rural? How would the Kreise change/merge in this timeline? Would the Germans see the sort of "homesickness-tourism" on the part of Polish citizens later in the 20th century that Poland saw OTL by German citizens?

I'm assuming the following (very rough timeline, so please ignore outlandishness at the moment):
-1917/8 - German monarchy collapses and they sue for a more lenient peace, which is still financially harsh, but does not remove any territory other than Alsace-Lorraine and North Schleswig
-1920s-30s - Weimar Constitution in effect and amended, Germany becomes a peaceful ally to the west, but its military is not very effective.
-1938 - German-Austrian war - Austria's fascist government tries to attack Germany, Germany defends itself barely, and defeats them. It chooses not to annex them, but appeals to the League of Nations for arbitration, and a new government is installed.
-1938-40 - Polish-Czech-German War - Poland/Czechoslovakia strike while Germany is distracted, attempting to seize Posen/West Prussia for a Polish Corridor that it wanted after the Great War. Germany's army is capped, but the British, over French objections, allow a draft, and their army increases to around 200K-250K. The Germans face some early setbacks, but march on, with Austria declaring war shortly after, the two nations defeating both adversaries, and bringing them to the peace table. Germany has Poland cede Posen/West Prussian claims and accept the Polish living there in exchange for any Germans living in Poland. Czechoslovakia cedes Sudeten territory to Germany in exchange for 20 million marks (or some such amount) and guaranteed cultural autonomy for any Czechs still living in the territory. Austria gains the German-speaking territory bordering its country for its trouble, and agrees to respect the cultural autonomy of the Czechs who decide to stay. (Sudeten territory is not mandatory to this timeline)
-1940-2012 - Germany and Austria stay out of most international conflicts without the backing of other nations, and focus on economic development.

So, no big WW2, but Germany stays roughly the same country and doesn't ruffle any feathers for the rest of the 20th century. No big war devastation or bombing, but a population exchange between Poland and Germany removed any ethnic tensions in the eastern part. Which parts in eastern Germany will be the most populous? Königsberg, Danzig, Posen, Bromberg, Breslau, I'm guessing might be a few.

 

[PariahNihil]

I'm not going to pretend I have any sufficient idea on how they would evolve over time, but if the German Empire remains the same, with Kingdoms and Duchies and such still around then maybe over time they'll either gain more bits of land from Prussia (population expansion) or the borders wouldn't change internally and urban centers would just expand and overlap.

 

[ingemann]

Well let us look at the provinces
Posen, Pomerania and West Prussia was thinly populated with few towns and cities poor soil and with relative few landowners, and relative little industry. Danzig, Poznan and Strettin was the only city of any big size in these territories. Beside coal in Posen it lacked natural resources.

East Prussia was more densely populated, it had a significant number of towns, good soil and the land was split among many minor land owners. It had some light industry.

Silesia was densely populated, had a lot of heavy industry, good soil, lots of land owners.

Beside that pattern in East Germany, Mecklenburg would fall together with the first group. Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia with Prussia, and Saxony with Silesia.

Brandenburg would outside category, because it would be the suburb of a bigger Berlin.

East Prussia is more or less a lowland copy of Bavaria, conservative with a big middle class and lot of small businesses. We would likely see it struggle until the post-industrialisation begun, and suddenly it would become the centre of the new economy, based on small business and and light industry.

The first group would be like Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony, it would struggle and there would be a lot of real poor areas, at the same time they would likely keep their head above water thanks to the large agricultural production and the connected industries. While Strettin and Danzig would have some success as the eastern Bremen (Strettin) and Hamburg (Danzig).

Silesia would have joined the German rustbelt and be suffering through it, of course like the Ruhr today it would likely have begin to turn around.

 

[JJohnson]

I haven't heard about a German rust belt before. Interesting. Is it only the Ruhr region itself? There don't seem to be maps of it like there are for the American rust belt.


So we'd have Posen, Pommern, Westpreußen as more rural, with the big cities of Danzig and Posen. Would Kösslin grow to be somewhere around 250K-500K people or just Stettin?

Looking at the Greater Poland Vovoideship, it looks like Posen would be rich in resources - lignite, natural gas, oil, peat, aggregates, gypsum, ceramic materials, and lacustrine chalk. If it were to stay in the German republic, I would guess that by the mid-to-late-50's, after things settle down, it would start booming as a mining state, and for energy extraction, moreso in the mid-to-late 70's if there is still an Arab oil embargo of some kind.

More industrialized we'd have East Prussia, Silesia, who would struggle a bit in the 70's and 80's with the beginnings of the information age, then start to take off with the internet boom and service economy. Silesia lags behind but begins to turn around by the 90's/2000's. Silesia would at some point pick up the tourism industry with all the parks, mountains, and forests they have, sparking a revival of its economy, likely in the 80s, when disposable income grows in the west overall.

PariahNihil, I'm going with the assumption here the monarchies fall across Germany after the Kaiser abdicates, leaving Free States across the land where the older kingdoms/duchies were. Prussia may or may not collapse, or might willingly break up into its constituent provinces as part of the post-war Germany - not a necessity to the overall timeline. Good point to consider!

Political speculation is always that - speculation - but what kind of political atmosphere would you suspect this Germany would have? Which parties do you expect to survive the early Weimar Republic to today, and which political leanings to you expect across Germany? (the extremist parties of the 20s would be outlawed at that time). How do you expect this Germany's eastern provinces to lean? SPD, DVP, DDP, or something else? And what about the national mood of the people about their country?

A good discussion is always a fun exercise.

 

[ingemann]

I haven't heard about a German rust belt before. Interesting. Is it only the Ruhr region itself? There don't seem to be maps of it like there are for the American rust belt.

There's not a lot of focus on it, as it's still richer than East Germany today, and it was never as bad as in USA, as the Germans did their best to keep the production at home (helped by a different union structure and less hysterical attitude toward state intrusion in private business). The rust belt is in reality a pan-European phenomena, as it continue into Dutch and Belgian Limburg, Wallonia and Nord-Pas-de-Calais.

So we'd have Posen, Pommern, Westpreußen as more rural, with the big cities of Danzig and Posen. Would Kösslin grow to be somewhere around 250K-500K people or just Stettin?

Köslin will stay a minor regional city with around 200-300K in its greeater urban area, while Stettin will likely hit 1 million in its greater urban area. Posen as its not a major port, will fall under Stettin, it's size today (0,5 million) is likely a good indication. Danzig will likely have 2-3 million in its greater urban area.

Looking at the Greater Poland Vovoideship, it looks like Posen would be rich in resources - lignite, natural gas, oil, peat, aggregates, gypsum, ceramic materials, and lacustrine chalk. If it were to stay in the German republic, I would guess that by the mid-to-late-50's, after things settle down, it would start booming as a mining state, and for energy extraction, moreso in the mid-to-late 70's if there is still an Arab oil embargo of some kind.

Yes it will likely have a lot of industry, but Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony was also home to such industries, and they are still among the poorest in West Germany.

More industrialized we'd have East Prussia, Silesia, who would struggle a bit in the 70's and 80's with the beginnings of the information age, then start to take off with the internet boom and service economy. Silesia lags behind but begins to turn around by the 90's/2000's. Silesia would at some point pick up the tourism industry with all the parks, mountains, and forests they have, sparking a revival of its economy, likely in the 80s, when disposable income grows in the west overall.

Maybe, but remember Germany are rich in such places, and without the allies burning every city down in Germany, Germany will be even richer in such places.

Political speculation is always that - speculation - but what kind of political atmosphere would you suspect this Germany would have? Which parties do you expect to survive the early Weimar Republic to today, and which political leanings to you expect across Germany? (the extremist parties of the 20s would be outlawed at that time). How do you expect this Germany's eastern provinces to lean? SPD, DVP, DDP, or something else? And what about the national mood of the people about their country?

SPD will survive, Zentrum will likely kind of union with DVP and DDP on federal level (likely as CDU, through it will likely quite liberal), DNVP will likely moderate and take DNVP position.
I expect SPD will end up with decades long dominance of German politic much as we saw in Scandinavia without the Nazi regime. You can more or less take Sweden as model.

 

[Max Sinister]

@ingemann: I think you overestimated the numbers for Stettin and Danzig. 2-3 million people? That's more than Hamburg!

 

[JJohnson]

Assuming no second war, how about a Danzig population of around 550K-750K? And Stettin, as the capital of Pommern, perhaps 460K, and with a city center not bombed out.