question on a Spanish-Japanese War

since seeing it in the Turtledove books i have wondered what would happed if Spain & Japan went to war over Spanish Asian possessions sometime in the late 19th century.

1. who would win?

2. what would the world reaction be if Japan won?

3. would any other powers intervene? & if so on which side?
 

Flubber

Banned
When Japan beat China in 1895, a non-white, non-Christian, non-European nations, Russia, Germany, and France intervened to re-write the peace treaty.

Let me list those powers and the date again: Russia, Germany, France, and 1895.

In 1895 two of those powers, Russia and France, have an active alliance against the third, Germany. In 1895, Russia and France have designated Germany their most likely future opponent in a war and Germany has done the same.

If those three powers in that sort of a relationship would work together to "protect" China from Japan, just what do you think they'd do to protect Spain, a white, Christian, European nation from Japan?
 
When Japan beat China in 1895, a non-white, non-Christian, non-European nations, Russia, Germany, and France intervened to re-write the peace treaty.

Let me list those powers and the date again: Russia, Germany, France, and 1895.

In 1895 two of those powers, Russia and France, have an active alliance against the third, Germany. In 1895, Russia and France have designated Germany their most likely future opponent in a war and Germany has done the same.

If those three powers in that sort of a relationship would work together to "protect" China from Japan, just what do you think they'd do to protect Spain, a white, Christian, European nation from Japan?

In my opinion, absolutely nothing. They protected China because they had interests there to protect, not out of love for the poor Chinese. I don't see any interest in the Philippines worth the same kind of action. Germany alone might act, since she was eyieng Micronesia, God knows why. But then, let me see what what happens in a German-Japanese war in, say, 1898, assuming everybody else stays neutral.
Russia would be pleased if Japan focuses South. Means freehand in Northern China after all. France would do nothing without Russia. Britain won't care unless directly threatened. USA still not involved enough in the area. Yeah, the Dutch might feel like supporting Germany. Good luck.
 
When Japan beat China in 1895, a non-white, non-Christian, non-European nations, Russia, Germany, and France intervened to re-write the peace treaty.

Let me list those powers and the date again: Russia, Germany, France, and 1895.

In 1895 two of those powers, Russia and France, have an active alliance against the third, Germany. In 1895, Russia and France have designated Germany their most likely future opponent in a war and Germany has done the same.

If those three powers in that sort of a relationship would work together to "protect" China from Japan, just what do you think they'd do to protect Spain, a white, Christian, European nation from Japan?
are you sure? ias far as i know & please correct meif im mistaken Spain was in non of the alliances to have other nations obligated to come help out. in the sino japanese war russia intervened because Japans taking of the Liaodong Peninsula interfered with Russias sphere of influence in China & its territorial ambitions. France intervened just cus they were obligated to due to their alliance with Russia. Germany did just to try & keep Russia looking east instead of west & to try & get Russian support in gaining territory in China & in its colonial adventures

Spain was in no alliance that i know of nor in any european nations crossairs for colonial expansion. well mabye germany but that dont matter
 
In my opinion, absolutely nothing. They protected China because they had interests there to protect, not out of love for the poor Chinese. I don't see any interest in the Philippines worth the same kind of action. Germany alone might act, since she was eyieng Micronesia, God knows why. But then, let me see what what happens in a German-Japanese war in, say, 1898, assuming everybody else stays neutral.
Russia would be pleased if Japan focuses South. Means freehand in Northern China after all. France would do nothing without Russia. Britain won't care unless directly threatened. USA still not involved enough in the area. Yeah, the Dutch might feel like supporting Germany. Good luck.
so you think Japan would win & they only other power to support Spain if any may be Germany?

id say if Germany by itself tryed to intervene though it may be a tougher war itd prolly end up with Germany losing most or all of its ownasian colonies
 
I doubt the Concert of Europe would deign to leave Spain at the mercy of the Japanese unless they were absolutely sure there was no economic/political benefit doing so.
 

Flubber

Banned
They protected China because they had interests there to protect, not out of love for the poor Chinese.


You did notice the quotes I placed around the word protect, didn't you?

I don't see any interest in the Philippines worth the same kind of action.

Not allowing an imperial European power to be beaten is the interest in play, not the Philippines. You cannot have the locals getting uppity, right?

Germany alone might act, since she was eyieng Micronesia, God knows why.

Colonies, prestige, all the usual horseshit. All the good parts of the globe had been claimed by the time Germany got into the game so she had to make do with whatever she could scrounge up.

Russia would be pleased if Japan focuses South. Means freehand in Northern China after all.

Japan won't go south unless the northern China/Korea question has already been settled to her liking. It's why Japan didn't sniff around Spain's possessions in the OTL, it's why Turtledove's idea is typical Turtledove nonsense, and it's why this thread won't get very far.

France would do nothing without Russia. Britain won't care unless directly threatened. USA still not involved enough in the area. Yeah, the Dutch might feel like supporting Germany. Good luck.

The European powers are not going to stand by while a non-European power grabs territories belonging to another European power, especially when you remember Japan was having tariff rates dictate to her less than ten years earlier.

It's worth noting that Japan only tackled a European power, Russia, when it had a treaty providing political/military backing from another European power, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance.
 

Flubber

Banned
France intervened just cus they were obligated to due to their alliance with Russia.

No, France wasn't obligated by treaty to help Russia in this case.

The Franco-Russian Alliance dealt with Europe exclusively, even going as far to explicitly name Germany. Colonial issues were deliberately left out as neither nation wanted to be dragged into the colonial disputes of the other.

In the OTL, Japan attacked Russia only after getting the necessary "cover" in the form of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. Russia in the Far East was a friendless and as "alliance-free" as Spain in the Philippines, but Japan still knew some cover protecting her from European backlash was needed.

The entire question is moot however because Japan is not going to start fishing far from home if the northern China/Korea issue hasn't been settled. Those regions are too close and therefore too dangerous for Japan to ignore.
 
Flubber may I ask why you think they would protect spain? Becouse no one in europe cared and came to protect Russia when Japan defeated Russia so why would they care if Japan defeated Spain?
 
Wiki is Wiki and I'm the guy who brought up the Triple Intervention, remember?

Here's the entire text of the Franco-Russian Alliance. After reading it, you'll notice that anything beyond Germany, the Triple Alliance, and Europe is conspicuous in it's absence.

France was part of the Triple Intervention for geopolitical issues and not becuase of treaty obligations.
helping cus its put in a treaty & helping because you want to make sure Russia remembers your assistance when Germany comes after you is another

France had no iterest in manchuria. their interest was southern china
 

Flubber

Banned
helping cus its put in a treaty & helping because you want to make sure Russia remembers your assistance when Germany comes after you is another


Isn't that what I wrote? That France had no treaty obligation to join the Triple Intervention but did so out of geopolitical concerns?

France had no iterest in manchuria. their interest was southern china

There are more to geopolitical concerns than protecting colonies.
 
Isn't that what I wrote? That France had no treaty obligation to join the Triple Intervention but did so out of geopolitical concerns?



There are more to geopolitical concerns than protecting colonies.
if its afer the sino japanese war then russia has done been made happy & they have no reason to be concerned with japan now looking south instead onorth & west
 
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