We all know that the Napoleonic invasion of Russia was one of, if not Napoleon's worst decisions ever. A combination of attacking the biggest nation on Earth while still at war with the British and Portuguese and having alienated most of Europe, along with the Russian winter and the extreme scorched Earth policy used caused his downfall. How, if Napoleon had been more successful, would he have treated the Russians, and how would they have reacted? I'm going to assume in this scenario that France doesn't turn on it's ally Spain via some more diplomatic means, that the alliances with the Ottomans and Persians are actual ones rather than just in name, and that Sweden gets in on the fun too. I'm not trying to speculate how they would win, but what the resulting peace treaty would have been like had they won. I'm not as good at pre-1900 history, so this is more of a start for me if thats ok.
Question: Napoleonic Russia Peace Treaty
- Thread starter Forbiddenparadise64
- Start date
Not by itself. His worst decision was rather that he did not not stick to his original war plan against Russia. He gave up a good strategy (a 2 years long campaign to liberate greater Poland and then defeat Russia to force it to accept this roll back) for a stupid strategic nonsense (going as far as possible to have a pitched battle against the russian army).
Generally, Napoleon wanted Russia friendly and in the economic blockade against Britain. Problem being, the economic sanctions were hurting Russia badly and Napoleon was really undermining his case by trading with Britain anyway despite them. With clashing ambitions elsewhere, the best Napoleon could really hope for were a few years peace before the conflict started again.
I would say that is a good point. So you think if he had done this, he would have performed better rather than trying to take Moscow like otl. I imagine the reformation of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth would be one thing. If other countries like Sweden, Turkeu and Persia are involved, what could they get? And of course, what would happen in Russia internally?
Then how about just Poland and the Baltic States. I thought the commonwealth as an excuse for Napoleon to take portions or Belarus and the Ukraine off them to weaken them. What the heck was Napoleon actually expecting to get in OTL? One thing is that Russia would definate ly be annoyed at having lost, with the tsar probably getting kicked out, especially if the other powers like Sweden and Turkey take Finland and the Caucasus. Perhaps an early revolution and republic? I imagine Napoleon would take some more territory out of ambition and being a megalomaniac, though I don't see him getting like 'Napoleons world' on the alt-history wiki (which portrays them expanding to the Urals, and keeping them till the present day, without even consuming the Swiss. which even I think is ridiculous). A napoleonic colonial empire should be reasonably large too if he beat the British and was trying to compete with them.
Napoleon couldn't afford a two year campaign. If Russia is soaking up his attention and more importantly the majority of his available resources and reinforcements then the Duke of Wellington will have cleared Spain and be preparing to invade southern France by 1814. The key, and unresolvable, strategic dilemma for Napoleon is that for the war against Russia to be a success he has to win decisively - all Russia has to do to win is avoid losing. The course of the war OTL is pretty strong evidence that the Russians had finally learnt this lesson.
For propaganda purpose and to mobilise the polish opinion, Napoleon said that the 1812 War was the liberation of Poland, the "Second Polish War" to create a new Kingdom on the basis of the Commonwealth.
The Poles and the Lituanians (in Commonwealth term) were rather interested to revive it.
The Grand Duchy of Warsaw army was the third contingent in the Grande Armée of 1812, after the French Empire and the Confederation of the Rhine.
You can expect the creation of a new Kingdom of Poland and Lituania and Joseph Poniatowski as its King.
This statement is very often made. The fact nonetheless is that Napoleon did initially plan a 2 years campaign. Then, but only around August 1812, he changed his mind : and it was the beginning of his fall.
I know that. I was explaining why it wasn't a good strategy.
Hmm. I wonder what could have happened around then to persuade him that he couldn't afford a long campaign?
I think you mean Bernadotte there, though Napoleon ending up as King of Sweden is a very interesting potential timeline in it's own right
Ok, here is a map I have done regarding a Napoleonic victory over the Russians. I wasn't sure exactly how to do a detailed POD that could allow such a thing to happen without France getting totally smashed in the process, so I decided an ASB one for now, and am wandering how you guys would react to the subsequent treaties involved.
Basically, a wormhole opens above St Petersburg leading to a parallel dimension in the future. In this dimension, there are greater quantities of natural Uranium and hydrogen in northern Russia than OTL and so millions of years later, the Soviets are able to exploit this better. They develop a Tsar Bomba which is even more impressive and enormous than ours, measuring at a staggering 120 megatons in explosive power. The wormhole opens just below the bomb as it is about to detonate-and well, Napoleonic St Peters-burg is obliterated, and its civilisation destroyed. Radiation spills as far south as Moscow (even there they receive an hourly dose of 3 rads and devastates the Russian army. The army and civilians alike crap themselves and with no organised structure begin falling into chaos, many seeing it as a divine intervention and punishment for Russia. Even the Napoleonic invaders begin feeling the effects of it, but they try to stay clear of the northern regions and go for Moscow, which is at least reasonably clear. Napoleon does however take advantage of their disorganisation to evoke a vicious peace treaty upon them, with the Swedish, Ottomans Persians and even Chinese jumping on the bandwagon too to take some territory. The new Russian Republic is powerless to stop them, with so much dissidence. Some nobles escape to Alaska and the far East and establish a Tsardom there away from the chaos in Russia proper. Having a considerably smaller and more leisured invading force than OTL, Napoleon is able to counter and invade Spain and Portugal, winning a Waterloo like battle and decisively defeating the British, who only give up their West African possessions in exchange for peace. Napoleon of course consolidates his power, by setting up a new Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (consisting of greater Poland, East Prussia, Silesia, Lithuania, Belarus, Smolensk and some of Western Ukraine) and a Baltic Duchy out of Russia, though they still have to deal with radioactive fallout. The Ottomans take Bessarabia, Crimea and Georgia, the Persians Azerbaijan and the neighbouring areas, and China takes back the Transbaikal region. Former St Petersburg is smothered in radiation over 50 times greater than that of Chernobyl and is declared uninhabitable for many years to come, with the Swedish attempting to claim it but ultimately failing. Russia begins to sway toward democracy to appease the tired hungry masses, and healthcare is ensured to protect the many dying civilians. Prussia is completely split up between Poland and the German confederation, which in turn is absorbed by the Napoleonic Ally of Austria to stabilise the region. Switzerland is similarly partitioned on ethno-linguistic lines. Napoleon grants independence to a unified Italy and even gives them Dalmatia to handle things more easily, but gradually tensions begin to arise over the Italian claims in France and Africa, and the two gradually begin to distance themselves from each other. The map below is 1830 approximately. Sorry about the quality, I'm using a new computer as I'm at university and something strange happened with this particular image. Its generally quite ASB in how it occurs, but I'm hoping there is a more plausible way to have a Napoleonic peace Treaty in future.
Basically, a wormhole opens above St Petersburg leading to a parallel dimension in the future. In this dimension, there are greater quantities of natural Uranium and hydrogen in northern Russia than OTL and so millions of years later, the Soviets are able to exploit this better. They develop a Tsar Bomba which is even more impressive and enormous than ours, measuring at a staggering 120 megatons in explosive power. The wormhole opens just below the bomb as it is about to detonate-and well, Napoleonic St Peters-burg is obliterated, and its civilisation destroyed. Radiation spills as far south as Moscow (even there they receive an hourly dose of 3 rads and devastates the Russian army. The army and civilians alike crap themselves and with no organised structure begin falling into chaos, many seeing it as a divine intervention and punishment for Russia. Even the Napoleonic invaders begin feeling the effects of it, but they try to stay clear of the northern regions and go for Moscow, which is at least reasonably clear. Napoleon does however take advantage of their disorganisation to evoke a vicious peace treaty upon them, with the Swedish, Ottomans Persians and even Chinese jumping on the bandwagon too to take some territory. The new Russian Republic is powerless to stop them, with so much dissidence. Some nobles escape to Alaska and the far East and establish a Tsardom there away from the chaos in Russia proper. Having a considerably smaller and more leisured invading force than OTL, Napoleon is able to counter and invade Spain and Portugal, winning a Waterloo like battle and decisively defeating the British, who only give up their West African possessions in exchange for peace. Napoleon of course consolidates his power, by setting up a new Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (consisting of greater Poland, East Prussia, Silesia, Lithuania, Belarus, Smolensk and some of Western Ukraine) and a Baltic Duchy out of Russia, though they still have to deal with radioactive fallout. The Ottomans take Bessarabia, Crimea and Georgia, the Persians Azerbaijan and the neighbouring areas, and China takes back the Transbaikal region. Former St Petersburg is smothered in radiation over 50 times greater than that of Chernobyl and is declared uninhabitable for many years to come, with the Swedish attempting to claim it but ultimately failing. Russia begins to sway toward democracy to appease the tired hungry masses, and healthcare is ensured to protect the many dying civilians. Prussia is completely split up between Poland and the German confederation, which in turn is absorbed by the Napoleonic Ally of Austria to stabilise the region. Switzerland is similarly partitioned on ethno-linguistic lines. Napoleon grants independence to a unified Italy and even gives them Dalmatia to handle things more easily, but gradually tensions begin to arise over the Italian claims in France and Africa, and the two gradually begin to distance themselves from each other. The map below is 1830 approximately. Sorry about the quality, I'm using a new computer as I'm at university and something strange happened with this particular image. Its generally quite ASB in how it occurs, but I'm hoping there is a more plausible way to have a Napoleonic peace Treaty in future.
Some bizzarw reason with file formatting not png made it dotty and that which is why it looks like some kind of fabric
His original plan was a good strategy. All Napoleon had to do was remove French troops out of Spain and ignore Spain until Russia could be dealt with. The Spanish guerillas and Wellington's pipsqueak army was incapable of invading France and therefore no threat to the French.
His mistake was thinking that France could afford to invade/occupy Spain and Russia at the same time.
After that battle, Wellington fled all the way back to Portugal when he heard news of fresh French reinforcements arriving. He only came back from Portugal after the Spanish guerillas had softened up the French reinforcements and after Napoleon had invaded Russia.
So, it was not that battle that forced Napoleon to abandon his original plan and quickly invade Russia. His original plan was sound. Napoleon was impatient at the height of stupidity.