Question : Most like fate of Surviving Vinland

What will likely to happen to a surviving Norse Vinland colony ?

  • Becoming a hermit norse colony in Newfoundland until Exploration Era

    Votes: 31 33.7%
  • Partnership with later incoming Basque and Celtic fishermen

    Votes: 40 43.5%
  • Other non-wank realistic scenario (Please specify)

    Votes: 21 22.8%

  • Total voters
    92
Does this prompt the King of Denmark/Norway to lay claim to Vinland sometime in the 15/16C? After all, he already rules Iceland and (nominally and FWIW) Greenland, of which Vinland is an offshoot.

Could we some Danish colonies in 16C North America? Or would Spain then, or England later, just nick them?
 

ingemann

Banned
Did Iceland and Greenland even have measles?

Googling suggests measles hit Iceland for the first time in 1751.

I used measel as a example, but honestly Iceland anno 1000 was a lot different from 1700, it had a higher population and greater contact with Europe, so it's quite likely that measel existed in Iceland in the early history of the country, but died out in the Little Ice Age, where the connection with Europe was cut somewhat down and the population was in free fall. Historical records of measels has more or less been limited to when they hit a virgin territory, simply because for a population used to it, it's relative harmless, it kill a few infants but with a high general infant mortality, that really disn't mean a lot to the average European.
 

ingemann

Banned
Does this prompt the King of Denmark/Norway to lay claim to Vinland sometime in the 15/16C? After all, he already rules Iceland and (nominally and FWIW) Greenland, of which Vinland is an offshoot.

Could we some Danish colonies in 16C North America? Or would Spain then, or England later, just nick them?

Honestly if Denmark had a historical claim to the more worthless parts of North America (Canada and USA north of Virginia), the other European powers would likely recognise it, through at some point Denmark would be force to back the claim, as they had to do on Greenland. Of course if Vinland are home to large Christian states, Denmark would not push the claim, but if there was some record of a small bisporic being set up Denmark would push the claim (it was why Denmark was able to claim ownership of Greenland, because of the medieval bishopric).
 
I'm thinking that by around 1250 there would be 200-300 Vinlanders in a small village at L'Anse-aux-Meadows. They'd be self-sufficient in terms of food and furs, but would probably need to trade with Greenland, Iceland or Europe for Iron and manufactured goods.

The Vinland Norse did apparently have a small iron industry, bog iron was available locally. From Iron Smelting in Vinland. Converting archaeological evidence to a practical method:

On the slightly elevated southern bank of the brook were found the remains of what what has been described as “the Smithy” and a charcoal kiln. (3) Investigation of this small structure indicated the presence of a bloomery iron smelting furnace. As such it marks the first iron production in the New World.

[...]

Analysis of the bog iron ore found in the Furnace Hut (LaM 293) shows it had an iron content of some 60 % (Fe203 of 69.8 %) which should be considered a nicely rich ore.

[...]

To conduct the smelt itself, a bare minimum of two people would be required at the smelter, at least one with enough understanding of the process to supervise it. Along with keeping control of the work of all the others, this ‘smelt master’ would have to understand the various warning signs indicating problems with the mechanisms of the smelt. When correcting problems, action must be undertaken in mere minutes, especially in any situations involving possible blockage of the air blast. The second worker’s primary responsibility would be maintaining the correct additions of charcoal and ore. In practice it has been found that having a third worker greatly improves the flow of the smelt, especially when problems arise (as they are almost sure to on any smelt). During the consolidation phase, the optimum is three workers, one holding the bloom and two working sledges. In addition, there needs to be a number of essentially unskilled workers to operate the bellows. With one stroke required each second over the course of four to five hours, in modern experiments it has been found that switching operators every 10 minutes, using a total of at least three individuals, gives the best performance.

[...]

At Straumsfjør∂r, the Norse were blessed with not only easy access to suitable quantities of primary bog iron ore, but with an ore of significantly high iron content. This should be considered a ‘lucky accident’, as it is likely the Norse just gathered up the pebble like pieces of ore exposed when they worked to cut turf slabs when constructing the many buildings on site.

[...]

What would be the expectation of these explorers that they would be able to smelt iron in Vinland? The answer may relate to their starting locations. The general knowledge of basic blacksmithing certainly appears to be quite widely distributed through the Norse of the Viking Age, and it is certainly true that most of those in Vinland were at core independent and highly self reliant farmers. Iron smelting, however, is a separate specialist activity, with skills quite different and more complex that those required by the rural blacksmith. Direct experience is critical, for the conduct of a smelt can easily jump off track, and if not very quickly repaired, the process will freeze to a halt. Iron smelting was not an activity undertaken in Greenland at all, so for at least the Greenlander members of any expedition to Vinland, personal memories of participating in a smelt would be over a decade and a half old.

Assessing the full resources available in his newly discovered lands was critically important to Leif Eiriksson. He obviously intended to paint a glowing picture of his territory - his name ‘Vinland’ is simple proof of that. Finding bog iron ore so easily, and certainly knowing that producing iron was not going to be possible in Greenland, it is perfectly understandable that Leif would take some effort to test out this valuable resource. However, not only would specialized skills be required to correctly smelt iron, specialized tools would have to be on hand in Vinland as well. It would only be from Iceland that direct experience with iron smelting methods could be provided, and there certainly is direct evidence that Icelanders did travel to Straumsfjør∂r.
 
The only thing I could think of that would be valuable enough and easy enough to discover that it could become a sustainable trans-Atlantic export would be fish from the Grand Banks.

I'm assuming (I could be wrong about this - I'm basing my assumption on material I've read online about potential Basque exploitation of the Grand Banks before Columbus) that before 1400-ish the nautical technology wasn't present for it to be worthwhile to export fish from the Grand Banks back to Europe. From what I understand, it wouldn't have been possible to sail the direct route from Newfoundland to Europe without a large risk of losing your ship, so any navigation would have to be via the old Norse route via greenland and Baffin Bay. Preserving fish for such a long sea voyage back to Europe would have been difficult, especially since the salt to do so would probably have to be shipped across the Atlantic from Europe.
Even later on, when the Grand Banks started being exploited IOTL, the fish had to be 'prepared' (maybe by salting, but maybe just by air-drying instead: I don't know offhand) on Newfoundland before it was shipped back to Europe: That was why Newfoundland was settled by the British and the French. If they could do that then, why not earlier?
 
Even later on, when the Grand Banks started being exploited IOTL, the fish had to be 'prepared' (maybe by salting, but maybe just by air-drying instead: I don't know offhand) on Newfoundland before it was shipped back to Europe: That was why Newfoundland was settled by the British and the French. If they could do that then, why not earlier?

Because fishing stocks in Europe may not have been exhausted to the point where it was wortwhile to do so.
 
Even later on, when the Grand Banks started being exploited IOTL, the fish had to be 'prepared' (maybe by salting, but maybe just by air-drying instead: I don't know offhand) on Newfoundland before it was shipped back to Europe: That was why Newfoundland was settled by the British and the French. If they could do that then, why not earlier?

IIRC, the French and English both salted their catch on Newfoundland before shipping it back home. There were two different salting methods: one used brine and the other dry salt although I can't remember which method was used by the French and which by the English. There were offshore fishers who did just dry their catch, although IIRC this was useful for fishers travelling from Western Europe to Iceland or Norway, but not useful in Newfoundland, because dried fish weren't preserved enough to make it back across the Atlantic.

My main reason I'm assuming that they wouldn't have done this earlier is that it didn't happen earlier OTL, which I know is not the best reasoning. Basically, offshore fishing is a much more recent development than inshore (local) fishing, and there wasn't much of it happening in Europe before the 14th/15th centuries. I seem to recall that there were particular technological developments and also an increase in demand for fish (I think this had to do with the Catholic church enforcing "Fish on Fridays IIRC) around 1400 which led to it now being worthwhile for the English to exploit the fishery in Iceland. IIRC the English fishing in Iceland was the first example in Europe of anyone travelling long distances to fish. So, I'm assuming that if before 1400 it wasn't worthwhile to fish in Iceland, it also wouldn't have been worthwhile to travel past Iceland to Newfoundland to fish. Especially because the voyage to Newfoundland would be longer and more treacherous.
 

ingemann

Banned
Because fishing stocks in Europe may not have been exhausted to the point where it was wortwhile to do so.

Not as much depleted as the Little Ice Age changed where the fish lived. But you point stand, Europe before 1350-1400 didn't need to look after alternate source of fish.
 
One of the nations of the Haudenosaunee.

This is obviously the coolest idea (the similarities between the Great Council and the Althing are amusing) but is it that likely?

Of course, the League wasn't founded until the 12th century, but it was done by a great prophet. Perhaps in ATL the peacemaker is a monk.
 
In Little Ice Age, Greenland was cut off, but Iceland wasn´t.

IMO, a surviving Vinland settlement would have kept trade contact with Europe. A 14th century Norwegian captain may not have bothered to sail so far to trade with the 3000 or less souls of Greenland, but a 14th century Vinlandic captain would have wanted to go home to his farms and family rather than try and settle down in Norway. And Vinland, unlike Greenland and Iceland, had their own ship timber - which is a vital difference.

The Western Settlement of Greenland was never 1000 souls. And the distance from Eastern Settlement to Western, northwest around a barren coast, was almost as big as the distance south across Labrador Sea from Eastern Settlement to Newfoundland.

If Vinland has at least 1000 Norse by 14th century, then I expect they would maintain the connection to Europe despite Little Ice Age.
 
Of course if Vinland are home to large Christian states, Denmark would not push the claim, but if there was some record of a small bisporic being set up Denmark would push the claim (it was why Denmark was able to claim ownership of Greenland, because of the medieval bishopric).


Which there might be. Istr some monk or priest being sent there in the early 1100s.
 
In order to have a claim to Vinland, Denmark/Norway must first deal with the local Norse.

Not a trivial task. In OTL, Norway had a trade monopoly with Iceland and Greenland. Even so, getting Greenland and Iceland to submit took decades of lobbywork for the 13th century Norway.

If Vinland has even a few thousand Norse by 1250, then the OTL lobbying tools of Norway will NOT work on Vinland - because the Vinlanders having wood build their own ships and sail them, and if Norway makes trouble they go to Scotland or Ireland - and that fact will ALSO derail the OTL Norwegian subjugation of Greenland and Iceland.
 
In order to have a claim to Vinland, Denmark/Norway must first deal with the local Norse.

Not a trivial task. In OTL, Norway had a trade monopoly with Iceland and Greenland. Even so, getting Greenland and Iceland to submit took decades of lobbywork for the 13th century Norway.

If Vinland has even a few thousand Norse by 1250, then the OTL lobbying tools of Norway will NOT work on Vinland - because the Vinlanders having wood build their own ships and sail them, and if Norway makes trouble they go to Scotland or Ireland - and that fact will ALSO derail the OTL Norwegian subjugation of Greenland and Iceland.


What are we envisaging here? Is "Vinland" one state with a single Althing, or is it just a geographical. for a bunch of settlements strung out from Newfoundland to Nantucket (or whatever) which might be absorbed one at a time?
 
While Iceland did have united Althing, even there it took Norway 3 years (1262 to 1264) to establish control - individual chieftains and settlements strung out around Iceland did not feel bound to submit to Althing in matters of such importance.

St. Olaf had made an attempt to subdue Iceland in 1022-1028, but that was a failure. Nor could he subdue individual settlements in Iceland. Also, Greenland, a smaller settlement separate from Iceland, was subdued by Norway OTL, but not before 1253 at the earliest.

Even if Vinland is a scattered bunch of settlements - central Althing is never formed, or is formed but falls apart during Vinland´s Sturlungaöld/civil war period - then without the leverage that Norwegian king OTL had over Iceland, the settlements are never subdued by Norway, or Norway subdues some and is then unsuccessful in holding them. Probably never subdued, for the same reasons Iceland was never subdued before 1262.
 
Even if Vinland is a scattered bunch of settlements - central Althing is never formed, or is formed but falls apart during Vinland´s Sturlungaöld/civil war period - then without the leverage that Norwegian king OTL had over Iceland, the settlements are never subdued by Norway, or Norway subdues some and is then unsuccessful in holding them. Probably never subdued, for the same reasons Iceland was never subdued before 1262.


I was thinking of a bit later than that, in the late 1400s or early 1500s. Maybe the existence of Vinland encourages the Danish monarch to take part in the era off overseas expansion.
 
I was thinking of a bit later than that, in the late 1400s or early 1500s. Maybe the existence of Vinland encourages the Danish monarch to take part in the era off overseas expansion.

Then we have to consider what the political organization of Vinland is in 15th century.

Norway wound up in Kalmar Union because, at 1319, the heiress Ingeborg of Norway was married to Duke Erik of Sweden, and boy Magnus Eriksson was both King of Norway and of Sweden.

Now, this mechanism depends on what the social organization of Vinland is. Vinland might be a republic, or oligarchic assembly of weakly bound petty chieftains, like Iceland. On the other hand, it is not improbable that Vinland might follow a path diverging from Iceland, in having a powerful leader - King of Vinland, or possibly adopting a different title like Jarl.

If Vinland is populous and wealthy by end of 13th century AND has a monarchy, then the distant Kingdom of Vinland may be taken seriously as a diplomatic and marriage partner by Kings of Norway, Sweden, Denmark... but also by Scotland and rulers of Ireland.
 
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