Question: Japan invades the Dutch East Indies alone

Just been thinking, say the Japanese invade the DEI while there's no war on, ie while the Dutch are seperate from the Allies, how would the world react, would Britain and France jump to Holland's defence?
 

Bearcat

Banned
Britain does.

The US still has the problem of no unifying Pearl Harbor, but eventually the country will get over that. US entry into the war will probably still happen by late 1942.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Just been thinking, say the Japanese invade the DEI while there's no war on, ie while the Dutch are seperate from the Allies, how would the world react, would Britain and France jump to Holland's defence?


Britain and France for sure. Then after not to long the US will as well. It's still a unwarranted attack on a small neutral power. Add to that the very influential China Lobby and you have fireworks in the Pacific. Ofcourse without Taranto no Pearl Harbour nor a similair attack on Singapore or even Soerijaba which indeed makes the US public less eager but it does leave the US fleet intact. Furthermore, as Japan begins the war only against the Netherlands it doesn't have the advantages of suprise attacks. The war is over in a year, maybe two.
 

Bearcat

Banned
The war is over in a year, maybe two.

No, I wouldn't go that far. The IJN is very high quality at the beginning of the war. They will crush the Dutch, then give the British and French a nasty surprise.

When the US gets into the war, they will lose the first battle badly, losing some big (though obsolete) ships in deep water. The IJN is superior in the air through 1942, and at night through much of '44. The Americans have torpedoes that don't work and nothing about this POD changes that before mid-1943 to beginning of 1944.

The ultimately crushing US advance across the Pacific is timed to the commissioning of the Essex class carriers. The first isn't ready for combat until early 1943. Thats why Tarawa happened in OTL in late 1943: we finally had the carriers to make it happen.

The Mark 14 torpedo becomes a deadly weapon once its multiple pre-war flaws are solved, around the start of 1944. After that, the doom of Japan comes rushing upon them, and nothing can stop it.

Butterflies could go either way but I see nothing here that *necessarily* will shorten or lengthen the war that much (ie more than 3-4 months).
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
No, I wouldn't go that far. The IJN is very high quality at the beginning of the war. They will crush the Dutch, then give the British and French a nasty surprise.

When the US gets into the war, they will lose the first battle badly, losing some big (though obsolete) ships in deep water. The IJN is superior in the air through 1942, and at night through much of '44. The Americans have torpedoes that don't work and nothing about this POD changes that before mid-1943 to beginning of 1944.

The ultimately crushing US advance across the Pacific is timed to the commissioning of the Essex class carriers. The first isn't ready for combat until early 1943. Thats why Tarawa happened in OTL in late 1943: we finally had the carriers to make it happen.

The Mark 14 torpedo becomes a deadly weapon once its multiple pre-war flaws are solved, around the start of 1944. After that, the doom of Japan comes rushing upon them, and nothing can stop it.

Butterflies could go either way but I see nothing here that *necessarily* will shorten or lengthen the war that much (ie more than 3-4 months).

Read the OP. It has no WWII going on thus no alliance between the Netherlands and GB. That doesn't really matter though as none of the Western powers is going to allow Japan to walk away with the DEI. The Americans will not have cross half the Pacific as they will not be beaten back very much. I doubt the Phillipines will even be taken. The Japenese will not be going up against the leftovers of the RN and the RAF but against it's creme de la creme. Not against Buffaloes but against G.1s and D.XXIs. Furthermore, either the Japanese will sneak attack the DEI and have the USA going up against them in a matter of days or there will be a build up of Dutch, French and British forces who will probably not be able to defeat the IJN and IJA but will not be crushed like happened OTL.
 
Britain and France for sure. Then after not to long the US will as well. It's still a unwarranted attack on a small neutral power. Add to that the very influential China Lobby and you have fireworks in the Pacific. Ofcourse without Taranto no Pearl Harbour nor a similair attack on Singapore or even Soerijaba which indeed makes the US public less eager but it does leave the US fleet intact. Furthermore, as Japan begins the war only against the Netherlands it doesn't have the advantages of suprise attacks. The war is over in a year, maybe two.

The vocal china lobby didn't induce Roosecvelt to lift a finger OTL, though. Why would anybody care about defending a Eurpoean colony?
 

Bearcat

Banned
Read the OP. It has no WWII going on thus no alliance between the Netherlands and GB. That doesn't really matter though as none of the Western powers is going to allow Japan to walk away with the DEI. The Americans will not have cross half the Pacific as they will not be beaten back very much. I doubt the Phillipines will even be taken. The Japenese will not be going up against the leftovers of the RN and the RAF but against it's creme de la creme. Not against Buffaloes but against G.1s and D.XXIs. Furthermore, either the Japanese will sneak attack the DEI and have the USA going up against them in a matter of days or there will be a build up of Dutch, French and British forces who will probably not be able to defeat the IJN and IJA but will not be crushed like happened OTL.

Sorry, but the Zero is a murderous opponent. Nothing the Dutch have will even be a speed bump against it. Same with the French. The Spitfire is probably still the Mk. I model (others won't be developed as fast without German pressure). Good plane, but it can't dogfight the zero. It will take time for the Spit pilots to learn the kinds of tactics that kept Wildcat pilots in '42 from being easy pickings. The first six months will be rough. Once you know the Zero's strengths and weaknesses, after six months of combat, you can start to get a handle on how to fight it.

Assuming a 12/41 start, by mid '42 the Japanese have most of their objectives. The US is probably in, and soon loses a number of old BBs in deep water. They'll be busy playing catchup to the IJN mastery of carrier air.

The US and UK will still break the IJN codes, at about the same rate.

Once the FAA gets decent planes, the RAF gets something like the Mk. IX and the US has Hellcats, in late '42, the bleeding stops, but its still going to take time to build the necessary shipping to break the Japanese perimeter.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
The vocal china lobby didn't induce Roosecvelt to lift a finger OTL, though. Why would anybody care about defending a Eurpoean colony?

You mean except for numerous aid packages and most importantly the Embargoe? Indochina was a European colony as well.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Sorry, but the Zero is a murderous opponent. Nothing the Dutch have will even be a speed bump against it. Same with the French. The Spitfire is probably still the Mk. I model (others won't be developed as fast without German pressure). Good plane, but it can't dogfight the zero. It will take time for the Spit pilots to learn the kinds of tactics that kept Wildcat pilots in '42 from being easy pickings. The first six months will be rough. Once you know the Zero's strengths and weaknesses, after six months of combat, you can start to get a handle on how to fight it.

Assuming a 12/41 start, by mid '42 the Japanese have most of their objectives. The US is probably in, and soon loses a number of old BBs in deep water. They'll be busy playing catchup to the IJN mastery of carrier air.

The US and UK will still break the IJN codes, at about the same rate.

Once the FAA gets decent planes, the RAF gets something like the Mk. IX and the US has Hellcats, in late '42, the bleeding stops, but its still going to take time to build the necessary shipping to break the Japanese perimeter.


In the end it will not be the slaughter it was OTL for reasons listed. Japan attacked OTL a European power which European possesions had been occupied, a European power which was fighting for it's survival against two Great Powers on it's home turf, and the USA which battle fleet was destroyed in a sneak attacked.

ATL Japan will be fighting a minor power and two big european powers with their hands free and the USA with a intact battlefleet. Oh and China is still alive and kicking. Furthermore, I doubt that Thailand will join forces with Nippon in this situation so there is no quick victory at Singapore.
 

Bearcat

Banned
In the end it will not be the slaughter it was OTL for reasons listed. Japan attacked OTL a European power which European possessions had been occupied, a European power which was fighting for it's survival against two Great Powers on it's home turf, and the USA which battle fleet was destroyed in a sneak attacked.

ATL Japan will be fighting a minor power and two big european powers with their hands free and the USA with a intact battlefleet. Oh and China is still alive and kicking. Furthermore, I doubt that Thailand will join forces with Nippon in this situation so there is no quick victory at Singapore.

The Allies, with or without the US, possess nothing which can challenge Kido Butai on the seas. The French CV is a relic, the Brit CVs have obsolete planes and too few of them, the US has planes which can't match up with the Japanese. And that doesn't even yet take into account the OVERWHELMING advantage in pilot skill. The IJN has conducted combat ops for several years in China. They are veterans. The UK, Dutch, French and American pilots are unblooded and overconfident. Recipe for what we in the US call a butt kicking.

BBs without air cover are targets (see also, the Prince of Wales and the Repulse). this POD will likely see more BBs sunk in the first six weeks of war until that lesson is learned. And the US ones will be in deep water, with their crews, not at Pearl where the ships could be salvages.

Eventually, the IJN will lose a naval battle, through 'victory disease' or broken codes or just plain bad luck. They'll lose their qualitiative edge, and find, as in OTL, that they are screwed six ways from Sunday in a war of attrition.

But until then, it will be difficult and sometimes grim for the Allies.
 

burmafrd

Banned
Things could also go the other way as well. Maybe Chennaults warnings about the Zero meet more receptive ears. Maybe someone figures out the torpedoes need to be really tested and they find out the problems early.

I would also point out that the US Navy had a much better feel and ability about AA aboard ships then anyone else did at that time and we had a lot better capeability. OUr ships would not be out without air cover so no easy pickings like Repulse and Prince of Wales.

IJN was very careless about S & R of their pilots- they wasted them very quickly. In this scenario its easy to see that they could lose them much more quickly.

And actually without Japan attacking US I do not see us getting into the war quickly. One forgets how strong the isolationist faction was at that time.
 
The Allies, with or without the US, possess nothing which can challenge Kido Butai on the seas. The French CV is a relic, the Brit CVs have obsolete planes and too few of them, the US has planes which can't match up with the Japanese. And that doesn't even yet take into account the OVERWHELMING advantage in pilot skill. The IJN has conducted combat ops for several years in China. They are veterans. The UK, Dutch, French and American pilots are unblooded and overconfident. Recipe for what we in the US call a butt kicking.

BBs without air cover are targets (see also, the Prince of Wales and the Repulse). this POD will likely see more BBs sunk in the first six weeks of war until that lesson is learned. And the US ones will be in deep water, with their crews, not at Pearl where the ships could be salvages.

Eventually, the IJN will lose a naval battle, through 'victory disease' or broken codes or just plain bad luck. They'll lose their qualitiative edge, and find, as in OTL, that they are screwed six ways from Sunday in a war of attrition.

But until then, it will be difficult and sometimes grim for the Allies.

Bearcat

I agree it will be grim at sea and the allies will suffer some serious losses until they start to properly respect the IJN. However if there's no war in Europe the Japanese haven't occupied French Indo-China. This means their going to have to fight their way into there and their operations further south will be on a very vulnerable and long supply line. Kido Butai will be lethal where it is but it will also suffer losses, especially given the Japanese weakness in ASW and the sheer number of a/c the allies will be able to commit without a war in Europe. Also it can only stay on station somewhere in the SE Asian region for a relatively small period of time. Once it moves off to refuel and refit any gains the Japanese have made become highly vulnerable bridgeheads and what protects their MS supply lines?

A lot depends on what is happening in Europe and also what time things are occurring. Presuming the allied powers, especially France, will be keeping sizeable units at home and elsewhere but without a war/crisis in Europe a lot of stuff, and generally better equipped and trained will be heading east.

Also you mention the Zero, but it and a number of the other a/c the Japanese used so devastatingly had only just entered service while 2 of the 6 carriers in Kido Butai only became available in 41. If the Japanese wait until then don't forget the British and Frence have had a lot more time to develop new ships, a/c and other equipment.

Steve
 
You mean except for numerous aid packages and most importantly the Embargoe? Indochina was a European colony as well.
All those are different from an actual declaration of war from Congress...without a very convincing casus belli involving many dead Americans and outright aggression there will be no support for a war amongst a strongly isolationist public.
 
Don't forget that OTL, the war in Europe put a stop to all ship construction from Sept 1939 on. The war in the Pacific starts more than two years later.

So without a war in Europe, the Allies will have some more ships available than they hadn in OTL.

GB:
- 5 KGV BBs + 2 Lion BB under construction since 1939, so almost finished. 2 more under construction.
- 2 Implacable class CVs should be almost ready without OTLs distractions.

France:
- Richeleu class: Richeleu should be complete and Jean Bart + Clemenceau almost finished. Gascogne + 2 more should be started at least a year ago.
- 2 Joffre class CVs close to commissioning, but only 40 aircraft each.

Holland:
- 3 BCs were to be laid down in the second half of 1940, these would be good anti aircraft platform (OTL allied 40 mm AA guns all used the Dutch Hazemeyer setup) and maybe one of the ships could be converted to a far more valuable carrier, like the Lexingtons had been.
 
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One big question is - Does this come out of the blue? Are the Dutch/Brits/French expecting anything or have they left the Far East as sparse as usual?

If it's empty the Japanese will probably run riot before any reinforcements can arrive. However if the fleets are in position, particularly if they're the full fat extra years of building versions Archdevil mentions, then the Japanese could end up trapped in the DEI with no route home.

Even with the qualitative advantages of the IJN running the gauntlet of the combined fleets of Britain and France through constricted waters just cannot end well.
 

Markus

Banned
One big question is - Does this come out of the blue? Are the Dutch/Brits/French expecting anything or have they left the Far East as sparse as usual?

THAT´s th key point. IMO the idea of a strategic suprise invasion is absurd. One needs to build up forces and that is notices, was in OTL in any case I can think of.


Sorry, but the Zero is a murderous opponent. Nothing the Dutch have will even be a speed bump against it. Same with the French. The Spitfire is probably still the Mk. I model (others won't be developed as fast without German pressure).

Sorry, the Zero is a flying coffin -a Fokker 21 or MS406 perfectly capable of defeating it- and with no pressure from Germany in Europe Japan will be seen as the No.1 danger by all regional powers.


The Allies, with or without the US, possess nothing which can challenge Kido Butai on the seas. The French CV is a relic, the Brit CVs have obsolete planes and too few of them, the US has planes which can't match up with the Japanese. And that doesn't even yet take into account the OVERWHELMING advantage in pilot skill.

Once again you forget the butterfly effect of no war in europe. Without the demands of a european war there will be no obsolte planes on RN CV and plenty of skilled pilots will be available for duty in the Far East. The european powers can bring their overwhelming industrial power to bear on Japan. Just a fraction of this power would stop the Japanese cold.


But the really, really ASB part is assuming Japan would got to war in such a situation in the first place. Unless the colonial powers are mortally weakend and the USSR is under severe threat the Japanese won´t make a move.
 
One of the reasons the Japanese felt they had to attack the US was because the route from the "Southern Resource Area", which included oil rich (British) Borneo as well to/from Japan passed by the choke points in the Philippines. Land based a/c in the PI to say nothing of submarines and even PT boats could cut that supply line any time they wanted to. That's why the PI were neutralized first - with Pearl Harbor being required to prevent the US fleet from preventing the Japanese from securing this transport route.

The Brits and the French will come in to help the Dutch, as they know their colonies would be at risk and, as stated no war in Europe going on. even with some of the technical and experiential advantages cited it will be tough. All the US has to do is say it will not allow "looted" products from DEI to go to Japan, and the Japanese now have to force a convoy through starting a war with an alerted US, and one that has seen what naval air, the Zero etc can do. Japan now has too many enemies, coming from too many angles, to deal with them all.
 
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