Just been thinking, say the Japanese invade the DEI while there's no war on, ie while the Dutch are seperate from the Allies, how would the world react, would Britain and France jump to Holland's defence?
The war is over in a year, maybe two.
No, I wouldn't go that far. The IJN is very high quality at the beginning of the war. They will crush the Dutch, then give the British and French a nasty surprise.
When the US gets into the war, they will lose the first battle badly, losing some big (though obsolete) ships in deep water. The IJN is superior in the air through 1942, and at night through much of '44. The Americans have torpedoes that don't work and nothing about this POD changes that before mid-1943 to beginning of 1944.
The ultimately crushing US advance across the Pacific is timed to the commissioning of the Essex class carriers. The first isn't ready for combat until early 1943. Thats why Tarawa happened in OTL in late 1943: we finally had the carriers to make it happen.
The Mark 14 torpedo becomes a deadly weapon once its multiple pre-war flaws are solved, around the start of 1944. After that, the doom of Japan comes rushing upon them, and nothing can stop it.
Butterflies could go either way but I see nothing here that *necessarily* will shorten or lengthen the war that much (ie more than 3-4 months).
Britain and France for sure. Then after not to long the US will as well. It's still a unwarranted attack on a small neutral power. Add to that the very influential China Lobby and you have fireworks in the Pacific. Ofcourse without Taranto no Pearl Harbour nor a similair attack on Singapore or even Soerijaba which indeed makes the US public less eager but it does leave the US fleet intact. Furthermore, as Japan begins the war only against the Netherlands it doesn't have the advantages of suprise attacks. The war is over in a year, maybe two.
Read the OP. It has no WWII going on thus no alliance between the Netherlands and GB. That doesn't really matter though as none of the Western powers is going to allow Japan to walk away with the DEI. The Americans will not have cross half the Pacific as they will not be beaten back very much. I doubt the Phillipines will even be taken. The Japenese will not be going up against the leftovers of the RN and the RAF but against it's creme de la creme. Not against Buffaloes but against G.1s and D.XXIs. Furthermore, either the Japanese will sneak attack the DEI and have the USA going up against them in a matter of days or there will be a build up of Dutch, French and British forces who will probably not be able to defeat the IJN and IJA but will not be crushed like happened OTL.
The vocal china lobby didn't induce Roosecvelt to lift a finger OTL, though. Why would anybody care about defending a Eurpoean colony?
Sorry, but the Zero is a murderous opponent. Nothing the Dutch have will even be a speed bump against it. Same with the French. The Spitfire is probably still the Mk. I model (others won't be developed as fast without German pressure). Good plane, but it can't dogfight the zero. It will take time for the Spit pilots to learn the kinds of tactics that kept Wildcat pilots in '42 from being easy pickings. The first six months will be rough. Once you know the Zero's strengths and weaknesses, after six months of combat, you can start to get a handle on how to fight it.
Assuming a 12/41 start, by mid '42 the Japanese have most of their objectives. The US is probably in, and soon loses a number of old BBs in deep water. They'll be busy playing catchup to the IJN mastery of carrier air.
The US and UK will still break the IJN codes, at about the same rate.
Once the FAA gets decent planes, the RAF gets something like the Mk. IX and the US has Hellcats, in late '42, the bleeding stops, but its still going to take time to build the necessary shipping to break the Japanese perimeter.
In the end it will not be the slaughter it was OTL for reasons listed. Japan attacked OTL a European power which European possessions had been occupied, a European power which was fighting for it's survival against two Great Powers on it's home turf, and the USA which battle fleet was destroyed in a sneak attacked.
ATL Japan will be fighting a minor power and two big european powers with their hands free and the USA with a intact battlefleet. Oh and China is still alive and kicking. Furthermore, I doubt that Thailand will join forces with Nippon in this situation so there is no quick victory at Singapore.
The Allies, with or without the US, possess nothing which can challenge Kido Butai on the seas. The French CV is a relic, the Brit CVs have obsolete planes and too few of them, the US has planes which can't match up with the Japanese. And that doesn't even yet take into account the OVERWHELMING advantage in pilot skill. The IJN has conducted combat ops for several years in China. They are veterans. The UK, Dutch, French and American pilots are unblooded and overconfident. Recipe for what we in the US call a butt kicking.
BBs without air cover are targets (see also, the Prince of Wales and the Repulse). this POD will likely see more BBs sunk in the first six weeks of war until that lesson is learned. And the US ones will be in deep water, with their crews, not at Pearl where the ships could be salvages.
Eventually, the IJN will lose a naval battle, through 'victory disease' or broken codes or just plain bad luck. They'll lose their qualitiative edge, and find, as in OTL, that they are screwed six ways from Sunday in a war of attrition.
But until then, it will be difficult and sometimes grim for the Allies.
All those are different from an actual declaration of war from Congress...without a very convincing casus belli involving many dead Americans and outright aggression there will be no support for a war amongst a strongly isolationist public.You mean except for numerous aid packages and most importantly the Embargoe? Indochina was a European colony as well.
One big question is - Does this come out of the blue? Are the Dutch/Brits/French expecting anything or have they left the Far East as sparse as usual?
Sorry, but the Zero is a murderous opponent. Nothing the Dutch have will even be a speed bump against it. Same with the French. The Spitfire is probably still the Mk. I model (others won't be developed as fast without German pressure).
The Allies, with or without the US, possess nothing which can challenge Kido Butai on the seas. The French CV is a relic, the Brit CVs have obsolete planes and too few of them, the US has planes which can't match up with the Japanese. And that doesn't even yet take into account the OVERWHELMING advantage in pilot skill.
You mean except for numerous aid packages and most importantly the Embargoe? Indochina was a European colony as well.