Question: Is there any time before 1895 Spain could've lost Cuba?

After the Virginius Incident (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginius_Affair) of 1873?
If the Spanish government had been less diplomatic they could have ended up facing the combined forces of the USA and the British Empire... in which case I'd expect the result to be the USA (with British naval support) gaining Cuba & Puerto Rico while Britain took the Philippines (using mainly Indian troops) and perhaps the Marianas (and the rest of Spanish Micronesia?) as well. How Britain would then have reacted to an OTL-like German purchase of any remaining Spainish interests in Micronesia is an interesting question...

Oh, and also in that war, of course, yet another siege of Gibraltar.
 
Cuba was not a Spanish stronghold back then, it was a Spanish controlled island but nothing special separating it from any other island at the time, it would grow in importance in the following centuries.

The original force could have taken it imo if they hadn't decided to attack Hispaniola and failed drastically

umm Havana, its forts and the Treasure Fleet.
 
umm Havana, its forts and the Treasure Fleet.

you mean the treasure fleet that Admiral Robert Blake would sink twice during the 1650's? that treasure fleet?

Yes the forts, but most spanish islands had forts, the British were capable of attacking forts.

My point is that the British had a good chance in an ATL in which they commit to taking Cuba as the aim of the western design.
Or if Cromwell had sent the proper army and navy to do so and not a vast majority of discontented troops,
Britain was never fully committed to the western design/Caribbean campaign and yet they still cause Spain problems despite the overall failing

I'm not saying it's a forgone conclusion that they'd take Cuba but I think they'd stand a good shot at it and so It's worth noting in a discussion about when else Spain might have lost Cuba,

As the commonwealth went on to "win" the war and receive Spanish territory in compensation alongside a very favourable treaty
if they'd aimed at Cuba with a proper force instead of Hispaniola they could've possibly succeeded.
 

B-29_Bomber

Banned
If Cuba were lost at that Battle of Havana could it end up in US hands by 1783? Would it have enough English-speaking colonists to side with the Americans?

Nope. It would have been like Florida in OTL. Give back to Spain as a reward for supporting the war.
 
you mean the treasure fleet that Admiral Robert Blake would sink twice during the 1650's? that treasure fleet?

There was a new treasure fleet every year .

Yes the forts, but most spanish islands had forts, the British were capable of attacking forts.

Not all forts are equal and the Havana forts were among the most powerful in the New World

My point is that the British had a good chance in an ATL in which they commit to taking Cuba as the aim of the western design.
Or if Cromwell had sent the proper army and navy to do so and not a vast majority of discontented troops,
Britain was never fully committed to the western design/Caribbean campaign and yet they still cause Spain problems despite the overall failing

I'm not saying it's a forgone conclusion that they'd take Cuba but I think they'd stand a good shot at it and so It's worth noting in a discussion about when else Spain might have lost Cuba,

As the commonwealth went on to "win" the war and receive Spanish territory in compensation alongside a very favourable treaty
if they'd aimed at Cuba with a proper force instead of Hispaniola they could've possibly succeeded.


fillerfiller
 
There was a new treasure fleet every year

I know that but the fact it was sunk by Blake very easily twice, and that was much later into the proper Anglo-Spanish war, would suggest that if Britain planned it properly they'd have managed to destroy it then too?

Not all forts are equal and the Havana forts were among the most powerful in the New World

No Fort can survive indefinitely though, assuming a British naval victory and the landing of forces on Cuba, the fort would end up isolated and having to surrender eventually.

However Britain would need to hold the advantage at sea, because of all the Spanish territories that could ship troops in, after all in OTL Hispaniola held the Brits off, who can say whether relief forces could be mustered to save Cuba in the event what I proposed happened.




Again I'm not saying the Britain would have succeeded in this, but I'm saying that with the right planning and aims by the Commonwealth for the Western design it's a possibility that was worth the discussion.
It's certainly a time when they could have possibly lost it, I'm not saying it would be a forgone conclusion.



I'm also getting the sense the two of us could argue on this indefinitely :)
 
This thread shows one of my pet peeves; that somehow it was only a fluke that kept the Spanish Emprie from falling like ripe fruit into the hands of a passerby, preferably someone Anglo-Saxon. In actuality there were numerous attempts to conquer parts of the Spanish Empire in 17th and 18th century, many of which ended in disaster. Cartagena, the Western Design, the assault on Santo Domingo (and Haiti) in the French Revolution...

And during the Napoleonic Wars, post-Trafalgar no less, Britain's invasion of Buenos Aires failed miserably.

As a rule, the larger colonies didn't change hands too often. It was mainly the smaller islands, which had limited ability to defend themselves, that were repeatedly conquered. The conquest of New France is the main exception to this rule, and even then, despite a massive manpower advantage, it took almost a century for the British to capture it. Overseas conquest is hard.
 
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TFSmith121

Banned
One (slight) possibility is in the late 1860s, by a combined

One (slight) possibility is in the late 1860s, more or less as the result of a Cuban insurgency that takes off and the Spanish in disarray as a result of the restoration war in the Dominican Republic and the failed naval intervention against the Chileans and Peruvians - both powers bought ships in Europe and the U.S. because of the war that arrived to late to go into action, but presumably if there was a brief intermission and the the situation heated up again, one could have a "Panamerican" intervention in support of a Cuban revolt, with (one would expect) a fair amount of support from the U.S., overtly or covertly.

1868 or thereabouts? Cuba and Puerto Rico gain independence... Do they federate?

Best,
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Twice, in fact!

And during the Napoleonic Wars, post-Trafalgar no less, Britain's invasion of Buenos Aires failed miserably.

As a rule, the larger colonies didn't change hands too often. It was mainly the smaller islands, which had limited ability to defend themselves, that were repeatedly conquered. The conquest of New France is the main exception to this rule, and even then, despite a massive manpower advantage, it took almost a century for the British to capture it. Overseas conquest is hard.

In 1806 and again in 1807..,

Best,
 
On another idea: could part of Cuba become a buccaneer state?

I know Havanna was pretty important to the Spanish as it was the last stopover for their ships sailing from the Americas back to Spain. It also had a sizeable military, in particular a navy squadron of galleys patrolling the coastlines for pirates. But the rest of the island was still mainly a few sugar plantations surrounded by wilderness. So could, like in Hispaniola/Haiti a few enterprising buckaneers have taken over part of the island and established a pirate nation? Possibly using liberated plantation slaves as border militia? Of course, the Spanish would launch a massive fleet operation as soon as they would get wind of the existence of the pirate town. But in the ensuing battle they might, may be might get their XXXX-es handed to them by the pirate fleet. It wouldn't be the first time. So what would we get? A 'free state' on Cuba-island? Possibly half of Cuba, even most of Cuba, under pirate control? A final assault on Havana when the time is right?

For timeline, I am thinking of the late 1600's, early 1700's but possibly as far as 1812. (Imagine Jean Lafitte, after migrating between New Orleans, Venezuela and his island base in what later would become Galveston, deciding that if he were an anti-Spanish privateer, he could just as well take the fight to the enemy... And if he would start by liberating a sugar plantation, he'd also have a steady supply of rum for his crew.... Hmmm... On second thought, someone please immediately point out why this is impossible. Otherwise I might just start a new timeline.)
 
I know that but the fact it was sunk by Blake very easily twice, and that was much later into the proper Anglo-Spanish war, would suggest that if Britain planned it properly they'd have managed to destroy it then too?



No Fort can survive indefinitely though, assuming a British naval victory and the landing of forces on Cuba, the fort would end up isolated and having to surrender eventually.

However Britain would need to hold the advantage at sea, because of all the Spanish territories that could ship troops in, after all in OTL Hispaniola held the Brits off, who can say whether relief forces could be mustered to save Cuba in the event what I proposed happened.




Again I'm not saying the Britain would have succeeded in this, but I'm saying that with the right planning and aims by the Commonwealth for the Western design it's a possibility that was worth the discussion.
It's certainly a time when they could have possibly lost it, I'm not saying it would be a forgone conclusion.



I'm also getting the sense the two of us could argue on this indefinitely :)
Probable is that the Spanish could have outlasted the British entirely.A major problem that persisted in navies until the late eighteenth century was dysentery.Illnesses such as malaria and yellow fever would have made short work out of the British if the campaign took a lot of time.There's also the problem of getting supplies to the British fleet.A major problem of the British at that time was that their bases in the New World either aren't that secure or are too far away.
 
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Probably is that the Spanish could have outlasted the British entirely.A major problem that persisted in navies until the late eighteenth century was dysentery.Illnesses such as malaria and yellow fever would have made short work out of the British if the campaign took a lot of time.There's also the problem of getting supplies to the British fleet.A major problem of the British at that time was that their bases in the New World either aren't that secure or are too far away.

Good point,

I was thinking about this issue and I thought of another alternative using a slghlty different and more unlikely/extreme P.o.d

What if the Brits hadn't botched the attack on Hispaniola? If they'd sent a proper trained military force in greater numbers(i.e actually sent some useful contingents of the New Model Army with the navy to the Caribbean force instead of the dregs)
If successful (it had been done before after all) could they then have used that as a base of operations for attacks on Cuba,Jamiaca ect.?

Or as a negotiation tool to gain other territories through diplomacy? Spain had already proved it was willing to pay obscene amounts in ransom in the late 1500's.

If the British succeeded in taking Hispaniola, and as part of that defeated the Spanish fleet, it's conceivable that Cuba would either fall or become the new Spanish stronghold in the Caribbean

(I'm aware this scenario was almost impossible in OTL even though it was what was attempted, but WI? :) )





agreed, that is a good possibility, and possibly the most likely one discussed here so far
 
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You are partially correct, but I am not entirely wrong. I was slightly off with my timeline there, they did take Jamaica after failing at Hispaniola.

But the idea to possibly take Cuba occurred before the attack on Hispaniola but was overruled by the leaders Penn and Venebles who wanted to emulate Drake as he'd conquered it from the Spanish in the 1580's and received a huge ransom payment from Spain to spare what remained and leave.

Cuba was not a Spanish stronghold back then, it was a Spanish controlled island but nothing special separating it from any other island at the time, it would grow in importance in the following centuries.

The original force could have taken it imo if they hadn't decided to attack Hispaniola and failed drastically

What do you mean? That island with the port used to the depart and arrival of the trans-oceanic convoys was unimportant or unprotected? Nothing special? Since late 16th century La Habana became the relevant port in the spanish Caribbean after the french attacks over the island, due to the "sole port system" and the aforementioned "convoy system".
 
I know Havanna was pretty important to the Spanish as it was the last stopover for their ships sailing from the Americas back to Spain. It also had a sizeable military, in particular a navy squadron of galleys patrolling the coastlines for pirates. But the rest of the island was still mainly a few sugar plantations surrounded by wilderness. So could, like in Hispaniola/Haiti a few enterprising buckaneers have taken over part of the island and established a pirate nation? Possibly using liberated plantation slaves as border militia? Of course, the Spanish would launch a massive fleet operation as soon as they would get wind of the existence of the pirate town. But in the ensuing battle they might, may be might get their XXXX-es handed to them by the pirate fleet. It wouldn't be the first time. So what would we get? A 'free state' on Cuba-island? Possibly half of Cuba, even most of Cuba, under pirate control? A final assault on Havana when the time is right?

For timeline, I am thinking of the late 1600's, early 1700's but possibly as far as 1812. (Imagine Jean Lafitte, after migrating between New Orleans, Venezuela and his island base in what later would become Galveston, deciding that if he were an anti-Spanish privateer, he could just as well take the fight to the enemy... And if he would start by liberating a sugar plantation, he'd also have a steady supply of rum for his crew.... Hmmm... On second thought, someone please immediately point out why this is impossible. Otherwise I might just start a new timeline.)

This is however a possibility. But the main candidates to carve an Haiti in Cuba instead Hispaniola are again the french, so less people here will consider that their sole presence in the coast would make the locals faint as happens when we talk about anglo-saxons. Now, when you have a port in the island already used as a neuragical center, supplying and mounting a counter-offensive in any given date is much easier, so, the survivial of that french territory is at odds. If it survives until the Familly Pact, perhaps that part of Cuba would remain in french hands.
 
What do you mean? That island with the port used to the depart and arrival of the trans-oceanic convoys was unimportant or unprotected? Nothing special? Since late 16th century La Habana became the relevant port in the spanish Caribbean after the french attacks over the island, due to the "sole port system" and the aforementioned "convoy system".

I'm not saying it was unimportant, but compared to Hispaniola it was less formidable, and there was a proposed plan by the English to take Cuba, which was over-ruled by the Naval leaders Penn and Venebles in favour of attacking Hispaniola.

The arguments being dragged away from the point,
I was saying if the English force consisted of more NMA troops and they'd aimed for Cuba instead of Hispaniola there is a chance they might have succeeded.
At no point have I said it would be certain,or that Cuba wouldn't put up a fight but I think it would be a possibility in an ATL.

Just like Cuba possibly is harder to take than I'm perhaps making it sound, it's not at this point some unbeatable stronghold that could never be lost
 
Why is Cuban independence an impossibility?

This is a more interesting idea. The atlantic revolutions are one window of opportunity, though in OTL spanish authority over cuba was not seriously threatened. Now, if things go a bit different and Spain ratifies the Treaty of Cordoba with the mexicans, maybe the cubans would start to think in something similar.

Another option is the Ten Years War (1868-1878) is another option, and it was considered by spanish officers (mainly Prim, who if had not been murddered would have become the strongman in Spain under Amadeo I reign) to offer a deal to the cuban rebels, granting them total autonomy under the same crown. They could also win the war, though overcomming the internal divisions in cuban society looks more difficult. Anyway, after this point, with the failure of the 1867 "Junta de Información" to adress the necessary reforms for Cuba the independence of the island was a matter of time

You have a couple attempts of invasion by Narciso López with the aim to annex the island to the USA in the 1850's. those efforts were supported by sectors of the pro-slavery landowners, but failed misserably.
 
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