I only ask because I have a scenario where Napoleon conquers Egypt and Syria in 1799 and I was wondering from such a conquest what type of population numbers this part of France could bring over the next two centuries into modern day times. In 1799 Egypt only had 3-4 million population and the Levantine and Euphrates were densely populated.
It would obviously take mass migration of French people but their colonial system was very different and if they have a fast growing population through the discovery of advanced medicine between 1820-1840, this would prevent their stagnating population growth throughout the 19th century. When the 20th century comes they have an extremely large population and continue migrating to the Nile, Levantine and Euphrates. (Plus everywhere else)
That's not really the cause of French population stagnation in the 19th century, IIRC it had more to do with France's land use. I'd expect most of these emigrants to go to Lebanon and Syria, specifically the parts not desert. Egypt and most of Iraq would be a bit too "tropical". Algeria/Tunisia would still be a good acquisition for France since its so close, has good land, and is also economically tied to France
200 BILLION? and everyone is eating soylent green right? just where is all of the food and fresh water going to come from? there is no where near that on earth now and there are issues.
oh sure lets just terraform Siberia.. ( wait we are.. ) planet gets hotter ..
I just don't see that as self sustaining. I could see an upward max of stable plus realistic as being around a billion to a billion and a half in the region that is described
Not if you build arcologies which by definition are self-sustaining. Current farming is very inefficient compared to what we can already get now out of hydroponics/aquaponics, let alone in the future. Artificial meat is also becoming a thing. Water can be imported from space along with most resources although in a pinch water could be manufactured (mixing hydrogen and oxygen of course) or a sort of desalination could be used and the entire oceans used like we use rivers now (we'd balance the salt content of the desalination).
I believe you are agreeing … its fanciful to envision that many people even on earth let along just in that region.
could you imagine the numbers in china, india, USA, france, germany and England would be paved parking lots from border to border.
200 billion humans and not much else I guess
unless we get really good at turning salt water into purified potable and irrigatable water on scales that we can not achieve today. also turning the Sahara green again. it would be a massive toilet of a planet to live on
It would probably be a very nice place actually since you'd be building vertically and also likely underground and into the Mediterranean (seasteads or more arcologies). The population density is about 53,000/km2 using just land. Modern cities are not built to handle this sort of density, but easily could be. In fact, the Middle East could easily lead the way on arcologies since Egypt has ample energy and also a need to move people out of the Nile valley. One arcology tower would be like a large town of a few thousand people while a collection of arcologies could form a city. The only downside is lack of personal houses, but since each arcology home would be at least the equivalent of a small family home (some may be bigger) no one would be lacking for personal space. Conditions are certainly better than most of the people in that area live in now.
Although "Megacity Middle East" resembling a city with that population density (Manila, Dhaka) over every square inch of land is an interesting setting (imagine the social and political commentary to be made) it isn't really realistic for reasons you've noted.
The real challenge is getting to 200 billion people, but assuming constant fertility rates slightly above replacement (2.3-2.5) this could be done given a few thousand years. But given demographics this would likely take a post-scarcity economy since the current economies of developed countries needed to produce this constant growth crater fertility rates as seen in Europe, Japan, etc. Although Wahhabist Islam and Ultra-Orthodox Judaism counteract this somewhat in developed Saudi Arabia and Israel respectively.