Question: How early can a united Italy exist?

[MerryPrankster]

You could have the Lombards parry the Frankish invasions--it appears they were always getting surprised by the gigantic armies appearing in the Alpine passes.

If they garrison the passes adequately and have forces on hand they can keep the Franks from breaking out, they might be able to win.

 

[Promethean]

Or itl be a draw with heavy losses for both so i can let the exarchate of Italy invade northern Italy?

 

[Midgard]

On the other hand, you could have a more successful Byzantine Italy that reconquers the entire peninsula, and then at some time later have an unified Italy emerge as a Byzantine successor state under some Exarch that breaks with Constantinople.

I was going to suggest that... in OTL, Byzantine Emperor Maurice (who ruled until 602 until he was overthrown by Phocas) reportedly considered dividing the Empire between his four sons, with at least one of them expected to inherit the "Western Empire" (i.e. whatever parts of Italy were still under Byzantine control at the time). To make it simple, let's have Maurice live out the rest of his life in relative peace instead of angering the legions and being overthrown, with his entire family butchered.

Furthermore, let's give Maurice another 10 years of natural lifespan - not too unreasonable, considering that he did not die a natural death, and was, if I recall correctly, in his 50s at the time of his assassination. By 610 or so, he does create his puppet "Western Empire" centered in Sicily, and has one of his sons in charge there. More interestingly, Maurice = no Persian war against Chosroes II = no rise of Islam (after all, with powerful Byzantium AND Persia around, presuming that this state of affairs lasts past Maurice's and Chosroes' deaths, the Arabs have little chance of actually doing any damage). This means that without the Arab threat against Sicily, there might be more of a chance for the Byzantines/Sicilian Greeks to concentrate their efforts solely on Italy, reconquering all of the peninsula at some point before 700. With assistance from the Eastern Empire, it might even be possible sooner, especially if there is no Persian war to weaken it, and no Islam to deal a near deathblow.

 

[chunkeymonkey13q]

600 A.D. Possible Scenarios

Personally, I see a stronger Lombard Kingdom as the most likely contender for the emergence of a united Italian Peninsula. The Eastern Roman Empire was rather weak in this period (600 A.D.), and its presence in Italy was largely limited to the easily resupplied coasts and the central strip of land, which was granted to it by treaty. Italy (historically) decreased in importance due to the plethora of problems that the Empire faced (wars with Persia, civil war, Slavic invasions across the Danube, the Arabs etc), and these could have resulted in an expansion of the Lombard domains (the Lombards are estimated to have numbered in the 300,000-400,000’s, and thus were far more numerous than the population, which was loyal to Constantinople).

In this case, perhaps the few troops stationed in Italy depart to solve some much more pressing problem (another serious mutiny in Africa perhaps or a major invasion across the Danube) and the Lombards resultantly strengthen their position, consolidating their hold in the absence of any serious resistance. Alternatively, maybe the Lombards are made federates (in the style of the old Empire), and are allowed to rule Italy as the Roman’s nominal vassal (like the Kingdom of Odoacer and the Ostrogoths). It is even possible that the Lombards fight another war with the Romans and win a near-total victory; however, as they were relatively decentralized at this time, whatever event series you choose will need to involve a series of strong kings who are able to unite the various squabbling dukes.

 

[General Zod]

A possible good POD might be Gian Galeazzo Visconti surviving his fever bout in 1402 to conquer Florence and Bologna. He would have quickly united all of Italy north of Rome in one big kingdom. IRRC, he had plans to get oneself crowned as King of Italy by the Holy Roman Emperor after Florence fell, when he died.

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

A possible good POD might be Gian Galeazzo Visconti surviving his fever bout in 1402 to conquer Florence and Bologna. He would have quickly united all of Italy north of Rome in one big kingdom. IRRC, he had plans to get oneself crowned as King of Italy by the Holy Roman Emperor after Florence fell, when he died.

I like this POD. By getting Italy united in the opening years of the 15th century, you can have Italy unite itself during this century, and hopefully avoid becoming the cockpit that it was by the end of the 15th century.

The problem that this is going to run into is that the HRE was loath to hand out crowns (just ask Duke Charles the Bold of Burgundy). The Holy Roman Emperor probably isn't going to give out crowns, so then Mr. Visconti will have to find someone else with the power to conjure crowns.

A better place to go might be the Pope. The Pope in the past had given various bits of Europe to crowned heads (Ireland to Henry II comes to mind), and I believe that the Norman Kingdom of Sicily was a Papal vassal (for as long as it suited the Sicilian Normans).

So perhaps Mr. Visconti, having conquered Bolonga and Florence, decides to revive the Iron Crown of the Lombards. In order to have this recognized by the other crowned heads of Europe, Visconti contracts the Pope (whom he probably caused to be elected, or caused to become wealthy, pick one) to give him the Iron Crown. The Kingdom of Lombardy is a historic title, and Visconti can concoct a lineage that shows him related to the last Lombard King or something.

Once you give Visconti his kingdom however, the next problem you'll have to face is succession. If he lives longer, then perhaps one of his sons becomes strong enough to ensure a peaceful successsion, but short of killing the other heirs (and I wouldn't put that past Gian Maria Visconti) I don't think a peaceful succession happens. Now perhaps with the Kingdom the other heirs are now clearly not equals and they fall in line, with strong armies of their own, united in name under Lombardy, but not in fact.

Once the Iron Crown is revived, and encompasses the large areas that it does (Milan, Florence, Bologna), I think that it is likely that another person could use this recent event to justify another conquest.

I'm thinking that if we have a Hapsburg like family arise (not the Hapsburgs per se, but another Europe-spanning familial empire) then one of their possessions could be Lombardy. Basically, once the crown is revived, you've made those three cities part of the same package, so that even if Italy still turns into the cockpit of Europe, the prize will be the Kingdom of Lombardy, rather than arbitarily drawn lines on an map of northern Italy.