Question for Japanese specialists: Mononobe success, Soga decline?

This is a topic that probably interests only a small fraction of Japan enthusiasts on this board, but what would have been the effect of the Soga clan never eclipsing the Mononobe clan in Japanese history? Now, I know this is one of the more obscure parts of Japanese history, but what would be the long-term effects that can be known? For example, what would be the impact on Japanese Buddhism, or the centralization of the imperial court, and such?

The point of divergence doesn't necessarily have to be a Soga military defeat at the hands of the Mononobe. Is there any other way possible too?
 
Bump? No Japan enthusiasts for the challenge?

I think that the period you're talking here is a bit obscure; for instance, I know little about it.

Can't say much about whether the spread of Buddhism would halt or not, but I suppose centralization of the Imperial Court would continue, with different people leading it.
 
I think that the period you're talking here is a bit obscure; for instance, I know little about it.

Can't say much about whether the spread of Buddhism would halt or not, but I suppose centralization of the Imperial Court would continue, with different people leading it.

But without the threat of the Soga, would there be the same impetus for centralization?

Also, bump.
 
But without the threat of the Soga, would there be the same impetus for centralization?

Hmm, the way I see it(which may be completely wrong), some clan would have tried to control the Emperor like the Soga did for a while; it was too good of an idea not to happen. After that, I'd expect some quite similar dynamics to happen, even if the characters and motives are different.
 
Hmm, the way I see it(which may be completely wrong), some clan would have tried to control the Emperor like the Soga did for a while; it was too good of an idea not to happen. After that, I'd expect some quite similar dynamics to happen, even if the characters and motives are different.

Going back to Buddhism, I could imagine that the Mononobe would be more hostile to Buddhism, and would slow down the growth of that religion. However, as for the Soga, I was talking about the centralization of the Taika reform, which I'm not familiar with, but involved state ownership of the land, a state Buddhism, adoption of the Tang legal code, and something to do with free/slave status that I'm not really sure about.

Besides, I'm pretty sure that after the Soga fell roughly 650 CE, the Emperors exerted real control for a while until the Fujiwara in roughly 800 CE came along. The centralization of Japan during this time seems to be more a product of the Imperial Family, not another controlling family.
 
I also don't know much about the period, but I suspect that if the Mononobe manage to take control from the Soga, Japan would be less centralized and less Korea- and China-influenced. The Mononobe were much more suspicious of foreign things than the Soga, and believed Buddhism was anathema to the native Shinto religion; they would have fought Buddhism and certainly not promoted it like the Soga. Japan might be less Buddhist and centralized in future years and less willing to accept Chinese ideas and things like legal codes, Zen, and tea.

What I think I'm trying to say is the Mononobe might not just slow down the growth of Buddhism - they could stop it altogether.

If the Soga are completely trounced somehow, the main power struggle would likely be between the Mononobe and Nakatomi clans.

I'd really love to see an Asuka timeline someday. Do any exist?
 
I also don't know much about the period, but I suspect that if the Mononobe manage to take control from the Soga, Japan would be less centralized and less Korea- and China-influenced. The Mononobe were much more suspicious of foreign things than the Soga, and believed Buddhism was anathema to the native Shinto religion; they would have fought Buddhism and certainly not promoted it like the Soga. Japan might be less Buddhist and centralized in future years and less willing to accept Chinese ideas and things like legal codes, Zen, and tea.

What I think I'm trying to say is the Mononobe might not just slow down the growth of Buddhism - they could stop it altogether.

If the Soga are completely trounced somehow, the main power struggle would likely be between the Mononobe and Nakatomi clans.

I'd really love to see an Asuka timeline someday. Do any exist?

I don't think on this board. I searched "asuka japan" and there were no timelines in the pre-1900 with a POD revolving around Japan. Do you want to collaborate on one then?

Okay, so how about this: Using a bit of Wikipedia research among other sources, it seems that the Mononobe were defeated by the Soga in a battle in 587. The point of divergence would be that the Mononobe in 587 manage to defeat the Soga instead, and wipe out the Soga clan. On the other hand, I've also encountered doubts whether there was this battle, or whether some event was dramatized.

Either way, this is a short while after Buddhism's reported 538 introduction to Japan. After 552 (this might be wrong), Buddhist priest and artisans start coming from the Asian mainland, and I'm pretty sure they were from Korea. So, that means the Mononobe might try to kill off the Buddhists who came in over the course of those three decades. Also, it seems that in 540, there were 7,053 households of the Hata clan already in Japan. The Hata were from what seems to be Silla, since I have doubts about Wikipedia saying they were from China or Baekje. So it would make sense to me that Buddhism probably came earlier than is recorded, and would still be present among the general populace, and I assume it would be concentrated among immigrants from Korea. That's why I'm not sure the Mononobe could get rid of Buddhism. After all, Buddhism reached every member of the Sinosphere.

I definitely could see a Nakatomi/Mononobe clash, though I could also see them working together if neither of them are able to get an advantage over the other.

However, there's the idea of centralization. I could see it, because I'm pretty sure the Taika Reform was caused by the rise of the Soga clan, though I could be wrong. Historically, the Soga were also involved in centralizing Japan too, so I think it could go either way, due to the pull of Chinese influence. I could keep looking at this.
 
I definitely could see a Nakatomi/Mononobe clash, though I could also see them working together if neither of them are able to get an advantage over the other.

However, there's the idea of centralization. I could see it, because I'm pretty sure the Taika Reform was caused by the rise of the Soga clan, though I could be wrong. Historically, the Soga were also involved in centralizing Japan too, so I think it could go either way, due to the pull of Chinese influence. I could keep looking at this.

Agree on Mononobe and Nakatomi possible developments, althought there is also a possibility the Nakatomi fall together with the Soga, since the Nakatomi had changed sides by the time the Mononobe were defeated. That would have a lot of consequences down the line, since the Nakatomi became the Fujiwara.

IMO, whatever followed a Mononobe triumph, it would likely have centralization as part of it; it would a natural step after the decisive clash of two factions that dominated the Court(as it was then). It would be something very different to the Taika Reform, though(since that was based on the foreign influences that the Mononobe were suspicious of).
 
I searched "asuka japan" and there were no timelines in the pre-1900 with a POD revolving around Japan. Do you want to collaborate on one then?

Either way, this is a short while after Buddhism's reported 538 introduction to Japan. After 552 (this might be wrong), Buddhist priest and artisans start coming from the Asian mainland, and I'm pretty sure they were from Korea. So, that means the Mononobe might try to kill off the Buddhists who came in over the course of those three decades. Also, it seems that in 540, there were 7,053 households of the Hata clan already in Japan. The Hata were from what seems to be Silla, since I have doubts about Wikipedia saying they were from China or Baekje. So it would make sense to me that Buddhism probably came earlier than is recorded, and would still be present among the general populace, and I assume it would be concentrated among immigrants from Korea. That's why I'm not sure the Mononobe could get rid of Buddhism. After all, Buddhism reached every member of the Sinosphere.

Collaborating on an Asuka timeline sounds interesting, but I'm a bit busy at the moment. If you go ahead, I'll be sure to cheer from the sidelines! And if I decide to do something along those lines later, I'll know who to call. :)

Buddhism would probably spread in Japan, but it might meet government opposition similar to what it faced in China in 845. The Tang government's suspicions of Buddhism were based in its foreign-ness, the same issue the Mononobe had with it. Widespread destruction of temples and persecution of monks and nuns, even for a short time, severely weakened the Buddhist presence in OTL China, and something similar could happen in a Mononobe Japan. It could also set a precedent for widespread persecutions of other religions in the future.

By the way, didn't the rise of Buddhism coincide with the end of the practice of building kofun? Perhaps those would survive in a Japan with a weaker Buddhist presence, and eventually evolve over time into something new.

IMO, whatever followed a Mononobe triumph, it would likely have centralization as part of it; it would a natural step after the decisive clash of two factions that dominated the Court(as it was then). It would be something very different to the Taika Reform, though(since that was based on the foreign influences that the Mononobe were suspicious of).

So you're saying while centralization would occur, the civilization that arises would become something fundamentally different from OTL Japan. Something with a more native and less Chinese culture, complete with different governmental structures, religious practices, art, etc.
 
So you're saying while centralization would occur, the civilization that arises would become something fundamentally different from OTL Japan. Something with a more native and less Chinese culture, complete with different governmental structures, religious practices, art, etc.

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. It would be a really interesting contrast to the OTL Heian.
 
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