An idea I've been kicking around, and would like your opinion on, is how the Confederacy and the American Civil War would evolve had PGT Beauregard not fired on Fort Sumter. While the underlying causes of the war would still be present, Lincoln and Davis would likely hesitate to engage in a war without the provocation of firing on Sumter. In this scenario, would it be possible for Davis to:
- Make alliances with Victoria and *maybe* Napoleon III? At this point, slavery isn't the main issue of secession, and Victorian morality could be overcome with a promise to begin a process of gradual emancipation (my high school history teacher insisted that this was Davis's plan to begin with, but I was raised in the south, so that's taken with a grain of salt).
If this did happen, could the ACW be averted entirely? And if so, could the following effects be the result?
- Stronger North America. While it is true that the USA and CSA are separate, there are 600,000 soldiers still alive, not counting those wounded and civilians killed, plus no devastation of the south and reconstruction, and a reason for the US to ramp up industrialization with enemies on the border.
- Stronger CSA. If Davis keeps up with his promise of gradual emancipation, could the CSA play up industrialization as an alternative source of income for the planter elite and immigration as a source of even more labor? This one is a stretch, mainly because of the possibility of:
- Weaker/Balkanized CSA (or a Texas-Louisiana republic). Once again, in 1861, we have much of the "state's rights" rhetoric still in full swing. Could Texas attempt to remove itself from a CSA dominated by the planter elite and instead secede from the Confederacy as a home of southern industrialization? And, could the catholic, French, mercantile classes of Louisiana join this burgeoning nation? Regardless, would the pro-states' rights slant if the confederacy, particularly early on, lead to an enfeebled Confederacy in the 1860s and 70s?
- Greater Midwestern influence in the US? Could the Free Soil/ Granger/ Populist movements gain more traction in American politics without having to win over the south? Could an economically leftist, religiously dogmatic populist party become a challenger to the industrial, progressive Republican Party?
- Prolonged Maximilian Mexico? If France has a vested interest in the CSA or Texas-Louisiana, as well as a natural ally in this nation, could Maximilian survive longer in Mexico? Or, would this inevitably turn to rivalry between the two North American nations?
- Who gets Cuba? If Spain begins to break down in their colonial empire, which nation can take advantage of this and take the island?
Or, is the idea that the ACW can be avoided because Fort Sumter isn't shelled too far-fetched. In that case, how can the ACW be started and might it be different?
- If Lincoln declares war without an active attack by the Confederacy, could the world view this as a war of northern aggression? Might Confederate calls for support be heeded? Or, would Lincoln starting off on the attack lead to a quicker Union victory? And in that case, what would the results be?
Thank you all for your thoughts!
- Make alliances with Victoria and *maybe* Napoleon III? At this point, slavery isn't the main issue of secession, and Victorian morality could be overcome with a promise to begin a process of gradual emancipation (my high school history teacher insisted that this was Davis's plan to begin with, but I was raised in the south, so that's taken with a grain of salt).
If this did happen, could the ACW be averted entirely? And if so, could the following effects be the result?
- Stronger North America. While it is true that the USA and CSA are separate, there are 600,000 soldiers still alive, not counting those wounded and civilians killed, plus no devastation of the south and reconstruction, and a reason for the US to ramp up industrialization with enemies on the border.
- Stronger CSA. If Davis keeps up with his promise of gradual emancipation, could the CSA play up industrialization as an alternative source of income for the planter elite and immigration as a source of even more labor? This one is a stretch, mainly because of the possibility of:
- Weaker/Balkanized CSA (or a Texas-Louisiana republic). Once again, in 1861, we have much of the "state's rights" rhetoric still in full swing. Could Texas attempt to remove itself from a CSA dominated by the planter elite and instead secede from the Confederacy as a home of southern industrialization? And, could the catholic, French, mercantile classes of Louisiana join this burgeoning nation? Regardless, would the pro-states' rights slant if the confederacy, particularly early on, lead to an enfeebled Confederacy in the 1860s and 70s?
- Greater Midwestern influence in the US? Could the Free Soil/ Granger/ Populist movements gain more traction in American politics without having to win over the south? Could an economically leftist, religiously dogmatic populist party become a challenger to the industrial, progressive Republican Party?
- Prolonged Maximilian Mexico? If France has a vested interest in the CSA or Texas-Louisiana, as well as a natural ally in this nation, could Maximilian survive longer in Mexico? Or, would this inevitably turn to rivalry between the two North American nations?
- Who gets Cuba? If Spain begins to break down in their colonial empire, which nation can take advantage of this and take the island?
Or, is the idea that the ACW can be avoided because Fort Sumter isn't shelled too far-fetched. In that case, how can the ACW be started and might it be different?
- If Lincoln declares war without an active attack by the Confederacy, could the world view this as a war of northern aggression? Might Confederate calls for support be heeded? Or, would Lincoln starting off on the attack lead to a quicker Union victory? And in that case, what would the results be?
Thank you all for your thoughts!