Question about the Phillipines

This is for people who know Filipino history well. Is it plausible for Ferdinand Marcos (Filipino dictator from 1965-1986) to start a war with Malaysia over the disputed Sabah territory? Furthermore, is it plausible for the Filipinos to win?
 
Is it plausible for Ferdinand Marcos (Filipino dictator from 1965-1986) to start a war with Malaysia over the disputed Sabah territory?


No. Marcos had a rather firm American leash around his neck. He was allowed to rig elections and keep on serving as President just as long as he didn't make problems.

Furthermore, is it plausible for the Filipinos to win?

No. Not enough sealift capacity to lift a large enough initial invasion and the troops sent aren't going to be motivated in any real sense. The US also going to shut down Marcos' circus in a New York second too.

All this presumes a Philippines and Malaysia which aren't too different from the OTL versions.
 
The Philippine military, though like the Canadian at its peak in the mid-'60s, was inferior in equipment and numbers to the Malaysian, without ability to project power or sealift capability.
 
This is for people who know Filipino history well. Is it plausible for Ferdinand Marcos (Filipino dictator from 1965-1986) to start a war with Malaysia over the disputed Sabah territory? Furthermore, is it plausible for the Filipinos to win?
I think that could have resulted in a bloody war..
 
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I think that could have resulted in a bloody war..


Not going to happen. The Philippines' minder won't allow it.

To tell you Sulu and Southern Mindanao were not part of the Philippines...

That doesn't matter and is of no consequence. The nations that counted at the time, those in Europe and the US, set the Philippines' borders and local issues were never even considered.

Cruel? Yes. Racist? Definitely. The way of the world in 1900? Absolutely.
 

Cook

Banned
Malaysia is a member of the Five Power Defence Agreement with Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore and Britain at the time had a battalion of Ghurkhas in Brunei and a believe another in Hong Kong, with more forces available quickly.

Australia throughout the time period you are considering had a squadron of Mirage fighters stationed in Malaysia and rotated infantry battalions through Malaysia, as did New Zealand. For much of that time period Australia’s navy was significantly larger than it is now and included an aircraft carrier. Australian F-111s operating from Malaysian airfields would be able to hit any target in the Philippines.

New Zealand back then actually had an air force.

During Confrontation UK, Australian and NZ forces were all directly involved in the defence of Malaysian Borneo and all would be actively involved in the defence of Malaysia against any external party.

The United States is not going to go into bat for Marcos against British, Australian and New Zealand interests.
 
Marcos is not stupid of making a war with Malaysia even if Indonesia backs him. He knows that the Philippine Navy's strength is just a minuscule compare to Malaysian Navy in addition of Australia, and Britain's aid, Philippines has no chance of winning.
 

Bearcat

Banned
Only way I can see is a POD before Marcos - Malaysia goes pro-Soviet Communist. Then it becomes a Cold War affair, with proxy war between Malaysia and the Philippines. Assuming US naval and air support, the PI will probably win. We can interdict Malaysian logistics at will.
 
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