Question about the Korean War and Nukes.

I know that during World War 2, President Truman had some reservations about using the atomic bombs on Japan. Could it be possible that he chooses not to use them and instead opts to win the war with Japan through conventional means. Supposing that the post-war years will happen as otl, when the Korean War comes around, could the Americans then use the bombs against maybe, China, to stop them joining the war? If they do, it would be the first time that anyone has ever used them. What could the consequences be?
 
There was no thought that the Japanese wouldn't fight just as hard as they did on Okinawa or the other colonies. I haven't seen any of the estimates of how long it would take, but the basic plan was similar to that for Italy - land at the south and fight north, except they anticipated much more resistance from the Japanese than the Italians.

Given this, it would be reasonable to expect active fighting in Japan in 1946, 1947, and possibly 1948, with a much larger occupation force afterward.

There would be a *lot* more Allied troops in Japan in 1950 than in the OTL. That would change the politics of heavy Chinese backing of the North Koreans.

Some other factors:

First, at Potsdam Stalin said the Soviet Union would be sending troops to Japan to aid the Allies there after V-E Day. The surrender of Japan happened before much was done. However, had the war with Japan dragged on, there would had been large numbers of Soviet troops. In OTL, the Soviets did get troops as far as Korea. In a longer-war timeline, they'd probably still be occupying "liberated" Korean Soviet Socialist Republic, just like they did Eastern Europe.

Second, and pretty much a wild card - the Japanese atomic bomb projects. The one in Korea was overrun by the USSR in OTL, the less-advanced one at home was basically just theory and some lab equipment on V-J Day... but we know now that the Japanese were following the same basic paths we did, and their problems were mostly lack of resources and lack of buy-in from the military. Unlike the Germans, the Japanese weren't much interested in superweapons or the latest, greatest toys, preferring to stay with proven technology. But after Trinity the cat was out of the bag, and just knowing it would work was a big help. Given commitment from the government and military, and a few years of time, and some handwaving... (1)

Third would be the question of whether the Maoist Chinese would even be a player in 1950. With plenty of Allied manpower nearby, some of it probably based out of China anyway, the political situation would be stabilized somewhat. Mao's group got power because they had some organization, but the political and economic chaos that helped them get control wouldn't have been as widespread.


(1) no, it's not relevant to your question, but it's not often I get to insert the Japanese bomb project into a thread... and even if they managed to build one, or three, or a dozen, it wouldn't help them militarily... but one public test, and they'd have a chance at negotiating an armistice. Not a good chance, but that's what ATLs are for...
 
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