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Hello together,

I need some advice on - as the title says - the Committee of Imperial Defence (CID).

The situation in OTL: In August 1911 at the height of the Agadir Crisis Haldane (then War Secretary) thought it was a good idea to meet with the CID and to discuss the plans for a war together with France against Germany. In this fateful meeting the Admiralty made it clear that they would not support the transport of the BEF to France and that they would instead consider a close blockade of Germany - although such a strategy had been already discarded a few years earlier as unfeasible. This led to the replacement of McKenna with Churchill as First Lord of the Admiralty in October 1911. Wilson (the admiral in question) would have been replaced, too, if he was not to retire some time later anyway.

Now the situation in an alternative TL: The Agadir Crisis is not the Agadir Crisis, but the Fez Crisis and for Britain no crisis at all. Germany reacts thoughtful and with great diplomatic skill: no Panther in Agadir, no intentions in Morocco, full disclosure of German aims only in the Congo towards British diplomats right from the beginning, no government sponsored nationalist campaign, joint exercise of both fleets continues as planned, no Mansion House speech and in the end the crisis already solved in the middle of August. So there never was the need for this fateful CID meeting to happen and it did not happen.

And here the question: In this ATL, with most other events going more or less like OTL besides a serious[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Anglo-German [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]détente in the beginning of 1912, when would such a CID meeting happen in this ATL? Would this lead to a similar outcome? As far as I gathered through some scarce sources on the CID the problems of McKenna and Wilson not supporting the army with their plans for the BEF was already known prior to that meeting. The CID and its subcommittees were coming together on a quite regular basis. So would it need an extended CID meeting with more cabinet members present like in August 1911 to lead to OTL results? What could trigger such a meeting? The Italian-Ottoman War? The Balkan Wars? Something else? Could there be other reasons for such a meeting? Or would this come up again on a regular meeting without extended attendence? How long would it take to make the rotation (if it would be done)? Around 1 - 2 months like in OTL? If McKenna is not sacked before the retirement of Wilson, who would become First Sea Llord? I gather that would be for McKenna to decide, no? Would it be still Bridgeman and later Battenberg?

Or would there never be a change before say July 1914 at all?

On a related note: I such an ATL, would there still be an Italian-Ottoman War? If so, would it be started later, earlier or approximately the same?

Thanks in advance.

Kind regards,
G.
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