question about possible German-Soviet Axis

what if German-Soviet Axis instead of OTL Tripartite Pact.

question is the sticking point (or country) IOTL seemed to be Bulgaria, which was in German camp albeit with pro-Soviet (or pro-Russian) population and to lesser extent Finland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Soviet_Axis_talks

what if a trade of sorts had been agreed, with Finland and Lithuania assigned to German sphere and Bulgaria to Soviet sphere?
 
But there was a german-soviet axis OTL !

It existed since the secret clauses of the treaty of Rapallo of 1922 that enable Germany to violate secretely the provisions of the treaty of Versailles and train military units on soviet lands.

And, after a parenthesis in 1933/39, it was renewed by the german soviet pact of 1939 August the 23rd by which Germany and the USSR shared, partitioned or annexed eastern Europe.

The USSR provided the german war effort against Britain and France with raw materials, especially oil, so that Britain even considered bombing the soviet oil fields of Caucasus.
 
But there was a german-soviet axis OTL !

It existed since the secret clauses of the treaty of Rapallo of 1922 that enable Germany to violate secretely the provisions of the treaty of Versailles and train military units on soviet lands.

And, after a parenthesis in 1933/39, it was renewed by the german soviet pact of 1939 August the 23rd by which Germany and the USSR shared, partitioned or annexed eastern Europe.

of course, my specific question was during course of continuing German-Soviet Axis, what would effects be of modified spheres of influence.

basically keep planned division of Poland which gave Lithuania to Germany.

divide Romania between Germany, Hungary, and USSR but with Soviets granted Dobruja (a land bridge.)

Bulgaria under Soviet sphere, which was a sticking point against Soviets joining Axis IOTL.

keeps Finland in German sphere, invasion of which caused German Nazi government their most problems with Soviet alliance.

under this scenario with the two dividing the Balkans Italy probably never joins Axis side?

and Germany probably gains much more trading with China, so no incentive to ally with Japan? (although less certain, the Soviets may want them in Axis?)
 
Well, you either have to get rid of Hitler (who was fixated on the Soviets), or you have to bog the Nazis down in the West (à la Blunted Sickle).

Even with the latter, there's no reason for Stalin to sign up to a military alliance with the Nazis - HE wanted the capitalist nations to destroy themselves against each other.
 
keeps Finland in German sphere, invasion of which caused German Nazi government their most problems with Soviet alliance.

Why would the USSR allow Finland in the German sphere of influence, though? Controlling Finland is important for the Soviets for the defence of the Leningrad area and for the security of the Murmansk railway and the ports of Murmansk and Archangelsk. And the Soviets want to control the Petsamo nickel deposit.

From the Soviet point of view, Finland is only strategically significant for the Germans if they want to use it as a base for an assault against north-western USSR. The Germans demanding Finland, a former part of the Russian Empire and at that time an important part of the defensive zone around the imperial capital, in the German sphere of influence, as opposed to any areas in Central-Eastern Europe with a land connection to other parts of the German sphere, is obviously threatening and suspicious from the Soviet POV. Especially so if the Germans are ready to give up closer-by areas that seem economically more valuable for them to get it.
 
From the Soviet point of view, Finland is only strategically significant for the Germans if they want to use it as a base for an assault against north-western USSR. The Germans demanding Finland ... as opposed to any areas in Central-Eastern Europe with a land connection to other parts of the German sphere, is obviously threatening and suspicious from the Soviet POV. Especially so if the Germans are ready to give up closer-by areas that seem economically more valuable for them to get it.

my scenario is not for prelude to invasion of USSR but rather a more durable German-Soviet Axis.

Soviets (Stalin) kept returning to issue of Bulgaria, plausible that a "trade" in spheres of influence might be acceptable to them? certainly don't think they would dismiss it due to it being TOO favorable to them?

as counter to any planned German use of Finland as launching pad Soviets would be in the Balkans.

the benefits to Germany?

drags Soviets, if not into, right up to edge of active participant. in the book Crown of Thorns Soviets proposed seizing Turkish Thrace with the Bulgarians, when the Turks learned of Bulgaria in Axis they were in uproar, imagine if Soviets start arriving there.
 

raharris1973

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Especially so if the Germans are ready to give up closer-by areas that seem economically more valuable for them to get it.

And Bulgaria has more utility for supporting German protection of its southeast flank against the British, so giving it up would raise Stalin's suspicions even more. Stalin might see this as a transparent German attempt to both encroach into the Soviet territorial zone for an eventual kill, and to embroil the Soviets in a war against the British beforehand.

Stalin in OTL very much wanted to avoid/postpone a war with the Germans, but they wanted to avoid a war with the British about as much.
 
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