Question about Imperial Japan

How much could they have conquered and how long could they have fought before the inevitable defeat, without atom bombs? Assuming the war begins the same, Pearl harbor goes the same, and the US still enters the war right after.
 
How much could they have conquered...


Roughly what they got in the OTL. They were handed nearly six months of miracles at the beginning of the war where the Allied forces facing them fought as if they were supposed to be helping the Japanese and not resisting the Japanese.

... and how long could they have fought before the inevitable defeat, without atom bombs?

Two rough dates here: Late-45/early-46 and mid-46.

The former date, Late-45/Early-46, depends on Stalin going for Hokkaido which will trigger Downfall by the US. I'm of the opinion that after Okinawa the US will not launch Olympic and will instead try the bombing/bombarment/blockade route backed by the USN and USAAF. The July meeting between Truman, the Joint Chiefs, and Pacific theater leaders was bitterly divided over Downfall. The only man still pressing for it was MacArthur, everyone else was either against or neutral including Marshall. Truman broke the impasse by signing off on the planning for Downfall while leaving the decision to launch the operation to a later date.

Once the Soviets make a grab for Hokkaido, the US will have to launch Olympic and Japan will be hammered into surrendering.

The latter date, Mid-46, sees the "Triple B" approach taken, landings made in Korea (definitely) and (perhaps) Taiwan, while Japan is literally starved into surrender. Among other things, the US was planning on hitting the fields and crops of the Home Islands with herbicides.

The Allies take this route in CalBear's excellent }Anglo-American Nazi War" thread and the results still scare them. :(
 
The former date, Late-45/Early-46, depends on Stalin going for Hokkaido which will trigger Downfall by the US. I'm of the opinion that after Okinawa the US will not launch Olympic and will instead try the bombing/bombarment/blockade route backed by the USN and USAAF. The July meeting between Truman, the Joint Chiefs, and Pacific theater leaders was bitterly divided over Downfall. The only man still pressing for it was MacArthur, everyone else was either against or neutral including Marshall. Truman broke the impasse by signing off on the planning for Downfall while leaving the decision to launch the operation to a later date.

There's always the argument that the Soviet invasion of Manchuria would have scared Japan into accepting allied occupation before Hokkaido was invaded. So the war might have ended at a similar time.
 
There's always the argument that the Soviet invasion of Manchuria would have scared Japan into accepting allied occupation before Hokkaido was invaded.

What argument? The one put forth by people who can't read a calendar?

The Soviet invasion had been going on for a week prior to broadcast of the Imperial Rescript and the Red Army had already advanced a distance roughly comparable to that between Normandy and Milan in that time.

If the Japanese had held for a week during that particular ass kicking only to surrender when Hirohito personally broke the tie vote of the Cabinet for just the second time in the history of the Empire, and seeing as a coup the next day came within a whisker of preventing the surrender at all, the idea that Japan's surrender only required two nuclear weapons and/or a Soviet invasion of Manchuria to trigger is somewhat naive.
 
What argument? The one put forth by people who can't read a calendar?

The Soviet invasion had been going on for a week prior to broadcast of the Imperial Rescript and the Red Army had already advanced a distance roughly comparable to that between Normandy and Milan in that time.

I didn't say it didn't happen, only that Soviet intervention was basically the worst case scenario for the Japanese Government and may have given tat extra push to seek surrender.

If the Japanese had held for a week during that particular ass kicking only to surrender when Hirohito personally broke the tie vote of the Cabinet for just the second time in the history of the Empire, and seeing as a coup the next day came within a whisker of preventing the surrender at all, the idea that Japan's surrender only required two nuclear weapons and/or a Soviet invasion of Manchuria to trigger is somewhat naive.

I'm not saying that at all, of course there were other factors.
 
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