How much could they have conquered and how long could they have fought before the inevitable defeat, without atom bombs? Assuming the war begins the same, Pearl harbor goes the same, and the US still enters the war right after.
How much could they have conquered...
... and how long could they have fought before the inevitable defeat, without atom bombs?
The former date, Late-45/Early-46, depends on Stalin going for Hokkaido which will trigger Downfall by the US. I'm of the opinion that after Okinawa the US will not launch Olympic and will instead try the bombing/bombarment/blockade route backed by the USN and USAAF. The July meeting between Truman, the Joint Chiefs, and Pacific theater leaders was bitterly divided over Downfall. The only man still pressing for it was MacArthur, everyone else was either against or neutral including Marshall. Truman broke the impasse by signing off on the planning for Downfall while leaving the decision to launch the operation to a later date.
There's always the argument that the Soviet invasion of Manchuria would have scared Japan into accepting allied occupation before Hokkaido was invaded.
What argument? The one put forth by people who can't read a calendar?
The Soviet invasion had been going on for a week prior to broadcast of the Imperial Rescript and the Red Army had already advanced a distance roughly comparable to that between Normandy and Milan in that time.
If the Japanese had held for a week during that particular ass kicking only to surrender when Hirohito personally broke the tie vote of the Cabinet for just the second time in the history of the Empire, and seeing as a coup the next day came within a whisker of preventing the surrender at all, the idea that Japan's surrender only required two nuclear weapons and/or a Soviet invasion of Manchuria to trigger is somewhat naive.