Question about German unification.

Let's say that Greater Germany (including Austria) is united sometime between 1848 and 1880. Since it involves Austria, a Hungarian Empire is likely left behind, no? Well, after everything is settled, how would the Hungarian and German empires relate to one another? Would the Germans and Hungarians most likely be allies, neutral to one another or enemies?

(and yes, I ask this question because I'm thinking of reworking my 1848 TL, but this is also out of general curiosity).
 

Eurofed

Banned
Let's say that Greater Germany (including Austria) is united sometime between 1848 and 1880. Since it involves Austria, a Hungarian Empire is likely left behind, no? Well, after everything is settled, how would the Hungarian and German empires relate to one another? Would the Germans and Hungarians most likely be allies, neutral to one another or enemies?

Barring different reasons for antagonism (radical ideological differences, Hungary oppressing its German minorities), allies most typically, just like Germany and Italy. After the partition of the Habsburg Empire, the three states don't sport any further major contested territories, and have complementary geopolitical aims. It's a wholly stable Triple Alliance.
 
That's what I was expecting. But let's say that Germany manage to align themselves with Russia in addition to Italy. Does this conflict with any potential alliance with Hungary?
 
That's what I was expecting. But let's say that Germany manage to align themselves with Russia in addition to Italy. Does this conflict with any potential alliance with Hungary?

Not particularly. Pan-Slavism's influence on Russian diplomacy has been exagerrated tremendously. Whether there would be any concern for Hungarian Serbs at all is depedant on what's gone on in Moscow and in the Balkans: OTL, the disaster of 1878 followed by the ascent of AIII led to a total victory for conservative policymakers apathetic about the south Slavs.
 

Eurofed

Banned
That's what I was expecting. But let's say that Germany manage to align themselves with Russia in addition to Italy. Does this conflict with any potential alliance with Hungary?

It entirely depends on whether Russia values the alliance of Germany, Italy, and Hungary enough to make the territories of the allies taboo for Pan-Slavism. If Russia is content with expanding at the expenses of the Ottomans, but keeps away from Bohemia-Moravia, Dalmatia, Albania, Montenegro, Slovakia, Transylvania, Vojvodina, and Croatia, the vital Triple Alliance turf, it can have a stable alliance with the CP bloc.
 
This is a valid point, but I take it we're assuming Hungary holds together, which is hardly impossible, given a German sponsor and a disinterested Russia. It will have a very... interesting future, however.

I suppose I could have expanded on my question...

It really depends on the circumstances of the unification. There are several situations in which Hungary may be retained.

If Austria unifies Germany it would likely keep Hungary.
If Austria looses Hungary, it might well be absorbed under Prussia which is equally likely to wage war with or ally with Hungary.
If the throne of Austria is inherited by the Prussian monarch he will consider the entire Austrian Empire/Austro-Hungarian Empire his (asbish).

Such sweeping changes to the balance of power wont be possible, or tolerated without a major war involving most of europe, after that anything is possible.
 
I suppose I could have expanded on my question...

It really depends on the circumstances of the unification. There are several situations in which Hungary may be retained.

If Austria unifies Germany it would likely keep Hungary.
If Austria looses Hungary, it might well be absorbed under Prussia which is equally likely to wage war with or ally with Hungary.
If the throne of Austria is inherited by the Prussian monarch he will consider the entire Austrian Empire/Austro-Hungarian Empire his (asbish).

Such sweeping changes to the balance of power wont be possible, or tolerated without a major war involving most of europe, after that anything is possible.

In the timeline I was working on a few months ago, Germany was united during the 1848 revolutions under Prussia, but (initially, at least) to the exclusion of Austria. The Austrian Empire then fell apart due to more virulent revolutions in 1848, and Prussian-led Germany decided to seize Austria along with Bohemia-Moravia. Most of the rest of the former Austrian Empire was taken by Hungary - hence, Hungarian Empire.
 
In the timeline I was working on a few months ago, Germany was united during the 1848 revolutions under Prussia, but (initially, at least) to the exclusion of Austria. The Austrian Empire then fell apart due to more virulent revolutions in 1848, and Prussian-led Germany decided to seize Austria along with Bohemia-Moravia. Most of the rest of the former Austrian Empire was taken by Hungary - hence, Hungarian Empire.

Sounds interesting but...
1: Does it get Hannover? In what way and how do the British react?
2: Why doesn't Russia or indeed Prussia offer to help Austria against its dissidents united as they were at this time against revolutions and major disruptions of the balance of power?
3: Are not the Austrians going to be rather rebellious subjects of these Prussian upstarts?
4: Are not Britain, France, Russia going to declare war on this massively aggressively and expansionistic Prussian state?
5: Are the Hungarians going to be able to organise themselves in time to contain the inevitable revolts amongst the rumanians, croats and perhaps more importantly the Italians. I can see them loosing a lot of ground very quickly.
6: Who will be the Hungarian Emperor?
 

Eurofed

Banned
In the timeline I was working on a few months ago, Germany was united during the 1848 revolutions under Prussia, but (initially, at least) to the exclusion of Austria. The Austrian Empire then fell apart due to more virulent revolutions in 1848, and Prussian-led Germany decided to seize Austria along with Bohemia-Moravia. Most of the rest of the former Austrian Empire was taken by Hungary - hence, Hungarian Empire.

Indeed, and if we assume a 1848 PoD, France would be wrecked by revolution and wholly unable to make major interventions in Europe for about a year and half, allowing Greater Germany and Italy a nifty window to unify and the Habsburg empire to collapse without French interference. It just takes a PoD to paralyze Russia as well for 1848-49 (e.g. a Polish insurrection) and central Europe can be reshaped without interference by other great powers.
 
Indeed, and if we assume a 1848 PoD, France would be wrecked by revolution and wholly unable to make major interventions in Europe for about a year and half, allowing Greater Germany and Italy a nifty window to unify and the Habsburg empire to collapse without French interference. It just takes a PoD to paralyze Russia as well for 1848-49 (e.g. a Polish insurrection) and central Europe can be reshaped without interference by other great powers.

The French did make several interventions within a year and a half of the revolution, in the Latium, for instance, and threatened others.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Sounds interesting but...
1: Does it get Hannover? In what way and how do the British react?

The crowns of Britain and Hannover got separated in 1831, and supporting the dynastic interests of the Saxon-Coburg-Gotha in Germany is no major priority of the British ruling class, they would be apathetic to the fate of Hannover like in OTL 1866.

2: Why doesn't Russia or indeed Prussia offer to help Austria against its dissidents united as they were at this time against revolutions and major disruptions of the balance of power?

To be successful, a Prussian-led Greater German unification in 1848 requires two things: a PoD that paralyzes Russia during the year (not any difficult, this is the year of revolutions) and a Prussian King with brains, who realizes that siding with the liberal-national movement is the future of his dynasty and his country (a lot of PoDs can give him a different personality). Neither PoDs are too difficult to accomplish.

3: Are not the Austrians going to be rather rebellious subjects of these Prussian upstarts?

The Prussians saved them from the collapse of the Habsburg Empire, and Prussia gets the helm of German unification, so German nationalism makes the Austrians loyal, as much as the Bavarians were OTL.

4: Are not Britain, France, Russia going to declare war on this massively aggressively and expansionistic Prussian state?

France is paralyzed by its own revolution for about a year and half, until it re-establishes a stable government. Don't count on it. Indeed a PoD that paralyzes Russia is necessary. Britain can't do much in central Europe without the support of both and was apathetic or sympathetic towards German and Italian unifications. After 1849, when the new German, Italian, and Hungarian states stabilize, undoing the change would take a general European war, and neither Britain nor Russia have an overwhelming interest to start one at the moment. Greater Germany, Italy, Hungary, France, Russia, Turkey, Spain, and Britain still make for an meanginful blance of power in Europe, even if power shifted to the CP bloc. Russia has no meaningful geopolitical quarrel with said bloc either if the CPs support or are neutral with Russian expansion in the Balkans at the expense of the Ottomans. Even Russian legitimist feelings are going to make themselves content with the collapse of the Habsburg if it is a fait accompli and they were friendly with Prussia to begin with. France is definitely unhappy but starting a war with Germany, Italy, and Hungary without allies and a plausible casus belli is a recipe for disaster.

5: Are the Hungarians going to be able to organise themselves in time to contain the inevitable revolts amongst the rumanians, croats and perhaps more importantly the Italians. I can see them loosing a lot of ground very quickly.

Italy surely gets all its irredentist claims (Trento, Kustenland, Dalmatia) out of the Habsburg collapse. But just like the Germans after they get Austria and Bohemia-Moravia, this turns them into supporters of the Hungarians. A viable Greater Hungary kingdom becomes a bulwark against Pan-Slavism, which would threaten Italian and German possessions. With German and Italian support, I can totally see the Hungarians (which were much more organized than their own Slovak and Romanian minorities) organize themselves in time to stabilize their kingdom, esp. because their uprising is a major reason of the Habsburg collapse. Croats were rather organized, too, which means they probably have to be conceded some meaningful federal autonomy within the Kingdom of Hungary. This however would not be out of question for the Magyar ruling class, Croats traditionally had some degree of autonomy, Budapest is just adamanet at keeping full control over Slovakia and Transylvania.

6: Who will be the Hungarian Emperor?

Lots of possibilities: a suitably liberal and cooperative Habsburg scion, an Hohenzollern-Sigmarigen, some member of a minor German royal line.
 

Eurofed

Banned
The French did make several interventions within a year and a half of the revolution, in the Latium, for instance, and threatened others.

French revolution started in February 1848, intervention in Latium was made in Spring 1849 after the Nappy III regime had stabilized, hence my one year and half paralysis span. If Greater Germany and Greater Italy fully unify during 1848, this happens during the period of French paralysis. Moreover, the Latium intervention was against local liberal revolutionaries there. Militarly, politically, and diplomatically it would be a wholly different beast from attacking a stabilized Greater Germany and Italy bloc galvanized by nationalistic enthusiam for no better casus belli than undoing their own unifications, without the support of apathetic Britain and Russia which have made themselves content with the new balance of power and are suspicious of Napoleonic resurgence. Nappy III might or might not do it, but if he does, it shall be most likely a 1870 two decades earlier, which loses France Alsace-Lorraine, Corsica, and Riviera, or at best a bloody stalemate, which ends in a status quo peace. 1850 French army was nowhere that good, nor Nappy III anywhere close to his uncle as a statesman and general, that France can take on a unified Greater Germany and Italy bloc galvanized by national success alone with impunity.
 
French revolution started in February 1848, intervention in Latium was made in Spring 1849 after the Nappy III regime had stabilized, hence my one year and half paralysis span. If Greater Germany and Greater Italy fully unify during 1848, this happens during the period of French paralysis. Moreover, the Latium intervention was against local liberal revolutionaries there. Militarly, politically, and diplomatically it would be a wholly different beast from attacking a stabilized Greater Germany and Italy bloc galvanized by nationalistic enthusiam for no better casus belli than undoing their own unifications, without the support of apathetic Britain and Russia which have made themselves content with the new balance of power and are suspicious of Napoleonic resurgence. Nappy III might or might not do it, but if he does, it shall be most likely a 1870 two decades earlier, which loses France Alsace-Lorraine, Corsica, and Riviera, or at best a bloody stalemate, which ends in a status quo peace. 1850 French army was nowhere that good, nor Nappy III anywhere close to his uncle as a statesman and general, that France can take on a unified Greater Germany and Italy bloc galvanized by national success alone with impunity.

...And all this in response to a slight forgetfulness about dates. My point that France threatened to get involved in Italy earlier than that stands.
 

Eurofed

Banned
...And all this in response to a slight forgetfulness about dates. My point that France threatened to get involved in Italy earlier than that stands.

And my point stands that staging a "police action" against the Roman Republic is wholly different politically, military, and diplomatically from picking a major war against the stabilized Greater Germany-Italy bloc without the support of apathetic Britain and Russia, which, differently from France, have no major geopolitical stake at undoing German and Italian unifications once they are done. Nappy III may or may not be megalomanic enough to do it, but if he does, he's most likely facing a new 1814-1815 or early 1870.
 
My old 1848 timeline had a single PoD - Nicholas I catches a nasty case of tuberculosis in late 1847, leaving him bedriddden for a couple of years before dying. The incapacitation of the Russian emperor gives Poland the motivation it needs to revolt alongside the rest of Europe in 1848, thereby keeping Russia occupied. The fact that Russia can't be the Gendarme of Europe also has some interesting butterflies on the other revolutions. The absence of Russia to keep things stable also forces Friedrich Wilhelm IV of Prussia to take a step back and reassess things before rejecting the German crown.
 
And my point stands that staging a "police action" against the Roman Republic is wholly different politically, military, and diplomatically from picking a major war against the stabilized Greater Germany-Italy bloc without the support of apathetic Britain and Russia, which, differently from France, have no major geopolitical stake at undoing German and Italian unifications once they are done. Nappy III may or may not be megalomanic enough to do it, but if he does, he's most likely facing a new 1814-1815 or early 1870.

And I never intended to get into another interminable debate about your obsessively militaristic view of European diplomacy, I was merely pointing out that the French were contemplating action outside their borders before a year and a half was up in OTL.
 

Eurofed

Banned
And I never intended to get into another interminable debate about your obsessively militaristic view of European diplomacy,

Or your obsessively intrigue-laden diplomatic view of European statesmanship :p. Diplomatic standing ultimately needs to be backed by credible economic and military strength and willingness to use it or it falls flat. A Talleyrand that can pull it off all on bluffs and intrigue alone from a weakest stance only comes once in a many centuries.

I was merely pointing out that the French were contemplating action outside their borders before a year and a half was up in OTL.

Fourteen months, if we want to be exact. But my point stands. By April-May 1849, Greater German and Italian unifications shall either be a standing successful fait accompli or an abject failure on their own merits or lack thereof, well beyond the point France could interfere in the critical formation stage. Afterwards, diplomatic weight-pulling would be meaningless, the only way to undo them would be a military adventure that would require a resurrected Napoleon I to be successful. Britain and Russia don't have any real stake at supporting France in this adventure, not in 1850, it would take many years of ongoing imperial competition with the Italo-German bloc to build the motivation, and the CPs can and almost surely shall secure the alliance or benevolent neutrality of either, owing to the Anglo-Russian antagonism.
 
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