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Obviously, balkanizing the poor old USA is a favoured trope in AH and sci-fi. But I was wondering, how plausible is it beyond a certain point?

Specifically, when I was younger, I wrote a (fairly terrible) AH where after a Confederate victory a resulting loss of confidence in the Federal government- which tried to keep a lid on things with increasingly nasty methods - the country balkanized further, with the Western territories/states breaking away.

My question is: are a further break-up and more secessions possible in the event of a Confederate victory? Or is this completely ASB?
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