Query - American Balkanization and Plausibility post alt-Civil War

Obviously, balkanizing the poor old USA is a favoured trope in AH and sci-fi. But I was wondering, how plausible is it beyond a certain point?

Specifically, when I was younger, I wrote a (fairly terrible) AH where after a Confederate victory a resulting loss of confidence in the Federal government- which tried to keep a lid on things with increasingly nasty methods - the country balkanized further, with the Western territories/states breaking away.

My question is: are a further break-up and more secessions possible in the event of a Confederate victory? Or is this completely ASB?
 
Obviously, balkanizing the poor old USA is a favoured trope in AH and sci-fi. But I was wondering, how plausible is it beyond a certain point?

Specifically, when I was younger, I wrote a (fairly terrible) AH where after a Confederate victory a resulting loss of confidence in the Federal government- which tried to keep a lid on things with increasingly nasty methods - the country balkanized further, with the Western territories/states breaking away.

My question is: are a further break-up and more secessions possible in the event of a Confederate victory? Or is this completely ASB?
I wouldn't say ASB, but insanely unlikely. I've always thought it would be interesting what the legal precedent would be if there were no Civil War and no Tariff Crisis. Because that's always been the stumbling block towards secession: any legitimate secession minded state would have to either
A: Get the Supreme Court to rule on their side (unlikely) or
B: Declare war on the Federal Government (we could see exactly how well that would work out. :rolleyes:)
 

Yuelang

Banned
Have Civil War occured EARLIER in 1840s, with the anti-Slavery North as the one who seceeding and the Southren slave-owners who keep the name of U S and A.

Sure enough, with some industries alredy in place but not enough to mount total victory (and thus cannot use their momentum to just roll South and instead of seceeding, actually forcing declaration of emancipations of some sort), they end up in a stalemate ended by formal peace treaty and seccession. After that, the "confederate" North will end up even more divided by States rights and different tarrifs and protection schemes.

The South, being agricultural slaveowners, end up as rich slaveowning society, who think its far cheaper to just import goods from the fractured North. So rather than re-uniting America, they're happy playing as rich plantations...
 

Kingpoleon

Banned
In Victoria 2: Hearts of Darkness, there is a nation called the Manhattan Commune, which usually becomes a militaristic Communist state. Also, the Californian republic can own the entire West Coast. Texas could grow to own the former Mexican America, and then support the CSA when it secedes. A New England state is not improbable. A preferred POD would be Britain intervening in Texas instead of America.
 
If we assume a Civil War that occurred more or less as it did through the first year in our time line, the most likely way for the war to end would have been for the South to get England and France to intervene on their side. Once that happened, and a precedent for secession has been established, I can imagine Europe using that to play power politics in North America. Why have a single strong America that is hard to influence when you can have a dozen different nations that you can steer around.

--
Bill
 
I don't think it's plausible in the most outlandish scenario for the US to split into more than 3 countries at its founding, and four at maximum once the West is settled. The states would be perfectly well aware that being divided makes them easy prey for foreign powers, and probably wouldn't completely divided unless they have serious anger and/or social issues with another region. I think in the early 1800s you could have at max a South-North split, and a New England-Rest of North split, and then in the late 19th century, an independent West.

But also, remember that the overall trend in the 19th century is for unification among similar ethnic groups, so unless there's serious bad blood (like the Civil War) I would expect there to be constant talk of unification.
 
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