Quebec secedes in 1990's

The Maritime Provinces would get cast adrift, losing equalization payments and numerous federal gov't contracts.

Western Canada would not care. Maybe Mantoba would reinforce the port of Churchill to facilitate exports to Europe.

OTL The bigger question is whether the US Army would allow Quebec to separate?
Large American banks owned much of Quebec's debt (e.g. James Bay hydro-electric project) and would "pressure" Washington to "liberate" their assets in Quebec.

OTL Starting during the 1960s, Quebec Seperatist politicians have told fairy tales about a separate Quebec enjoying amiable relations with the USA and the rest of Canada. Few western Canadians heard these boasts and most still expected Quebec to pay off its share of the national debt before separating. Quebec's gov't bureaucracy and social services (hospitals, schools, universities and roads) would suffer for the next decade.

For example during the coldest (-40 degrees Celcius or Fahreneheit) months of the year, Québécois expected to heat their houses with electricity. If that required rationing electric exports to New England .... that was an American problem.
Few outsiders believed New Englanders were willing to freeze in the dark. Next morning, thousands of American helicopters would fly from Northern New England and upstate New York to seize the Saint Lawrence Seaway and major hydro-electric installations. The 10th Mountain Division could take-off from Fort Drum (upstate New York) and complete the job by lunch.
I suspect he New York State National Guardsmen would out-number Québécois soldiers. Van Doos, 12 RBC, 5 RALC, etc. would be forced to decide which master they would serve. Militia regiments in Quebec included disproportionately large numbers of reactionary English-speakers. Most of the Québécois guerillas who ambushed American soldiers would either freeze to death or be quickly hunted down. Have you ever tried to track someone through fresh snow?
Meanwhile, the US Navy and Coast Guard would blockade both ends of the St. Lawrence River to prevent goods from landing in Quebec ports (Quebec City, Rimouski, Sept Isles, Trois Rivieres, Montreal, etc.).
 
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No way that will happen if new England will invade Quebec after the referendum it will involved lot of reaction, France could react Chirac declared that if the referendum is affirmative, the government will acknowledge this fact.

And France is a nuclear power so I do not think that American will try to take a risk imagine that France (that had sympathy to Quebec cause in this period) threat of nuclear war if ever they didn't not leave the country, the humiliation will be horrible for them and Quebec want good relation so USA will not have problem yes they would be angry because it could give idea to some of their state but if Quebec act and they will actt really friendly they will not have reason to invade them I'm sure that Quebec will make anything to be perceive as an ally.

Okay if the yes won and Canadian elite accept

I think that they will debate about Sovereignty, cooperation, territories exchange, if French speaker minorities want join Quebec or to took back some land that didn't want separate to Canada, they will also argue about debt

so in my opinion an amicable separation will happen I thought that the USA and France would join negotiation, Usa to defend their interest and France to defend Quebec one the would get also a mediator role. At the same time, a Quebec government will be formed by specialist to led and accompany the separation.
 
No way that will happen if new England will invade Quebec after the referendum it will involved lot of reaction, France could react Chirac declared that if the referendum is affirmative, the government will acknowledge this fact.

And France is a nuclear power so I do not think that American will try to take a risk imagine that France (that had sympathy to Quebec cause in this period) threat of nuclear war if ever they didn't not leave the country, the humiliation will be horrible for them and Quebec want good relation so USA will not have problem yes they would be angry because it could give idea to some of their state but if Quebec act and they will actt really friendly they will not have reason to invade them I'm sure that Quebec will make anything to be perceive as an ally.

Okay if the yes won and Canadian elite accept

I think that they will debate about Sovereignty, cooperation, territories exchange, if French speaker minorities want join Quebec or to took back some land that didn't want separate to Canada, they will also argue about debt

so in my opinion an amicable separation will happen I thought that the USA and France would join negotiation, Usa to defend their interest and France to defend Quebec one the would get also a mediator role. At the same time, a Quebec government will be formed by specialist to led and accompany the separation.


The French aren't suicidal and wouldn't threaten nuclear war with the US over Quebec. That said I doubt the US public would put up with invading Quebec. What it might do is cut off all trade if Quebec annoys us enough.
 
maybe but Quebec elite was pro-american so i don't see them upset them especially because they know that would be suicidal.
 
What happens to the Eastern townships, the far north of Quebec and Montreal? Does the federal government take the whole debt? What does the rest of Canada think of Ontario having half of the Canadian population? Who owns the federal infrastructure in Quebec? Quebec will need its own currency because Canada won't let them use the dollar, ditto passports. Quebec will have to renegotiate NAFTA, NATO and NORAD.

Mostly I foresee a truly massive recession in Canada and Quebec until everything gets sorted out and a massive backlash against the Liberal party for losing the 1995 referendum.
 
What happens to the Eastern townships, the far north of Quebec and Montreal?
I think that by the 90s Quebecois migrants have overtaken the British/American settlers of the Eastern Townships.
I imagine if there isn't too much economic and political trouble the Quebecois would allow most of the "First Nations" areas to either have an autonomous prefecture or go their own way by the early 2000s.

Quebec will need its own currency because Canada won't let them use the dollar, ditto passports. Quebec will have to renegotiate NAFTA, NATO and NORAD.
My guess is that the people in Quebec would welcome the chance to play around with their currency as well as trade deals. If your envisioned recession (I agree with you) isn't too bad, they will probably attempt to join the Euro. I don't think Quebec would actually bother to enter NATO or NORAD.
 
I think that by the 90s Quebecois migrants have overtaken the British/American settlers of the Eastern Townships.
I imagine if there isn't too much economic and political trouble the Quebecois would allow most of the "First Nations" areas to either have an autonomous prefecture or go their own way by the early 2000s.


My guess is that the people in Quebec would welcome the chance to play around with their currency as well as trade deals. If your envisioned recession (I agree with you) isn't too bad, they will probably attempt to join the Euro. I don't think Quebec would actually bother to enter NATO or NORAD.
The French speakers of the Eastern Townships and in and around Montreal were heavily against separation.

The Independence question is way more complicated than that. It's definitely not just about ethnicity, as the OTL results obviously show.
 
-Atlantic provinces likely apply for US statehood over thr following 5 years
-Quebec likely to eye or call for "inclusion" of French-speaking northeastern Ontario
-Churchill MB becomes key Atlantic outlet for much of the remainder of Canada
-Starting in Alberta and soon after British Columbia there are questions about how well the Western (and Prairie?) provinces are being treated by Ontario
-Ottowa likely no longer the capital given its proximity to Quebec, maybe it moves to Winnipeg?
-US likely to see BC and AB apply for statehood if only as a threat for more resources but not impossible for one or both to be accepted
-Rump Canada either just holds on or more likely gradually falls into US orbit as seven states and five territories with heavy push in coastal and Great Lakes US regions
-Dems have near permanent lock on Congress and White House and this might trigger new secession movements in the US
 
[Obligatory usa gets anschluss eyes polandball comic]
That said I wonder how this headache would affect the 96 Clinton campaign?
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
[Obligatory usa gets anschluss eyes polandball comic]
That said I wonder how this headache would affect the 96 Clinton campaign?
It would give a shot to the arm of Ross Perot's campaign as America's trade agreements with Canada and the newly minted Quebec Republic becomes a prominent issue.
 
-Dems have near permanent lock on Congress and White House and this might trigger new secession movements in the US
Don't know about the rest, but this at least isn't true. Even if all of Canada is absorbed, the fact of the matter is that there are plenty of rural conservative Canadians, and though there would be far more Liberals in the country, there aren't enough Canadians to completely upset things.

Maybe Republicans moderate a little with the fusion they're going to have with the Progressive Conservatives, but the trajectory of the parties will not be that changed.
 
If Canada joined the US (Canadamerica?) it would put about 50-55 electoral votes into the system with 10 Senators and 40-45 representatives. That's enough to push both House and Senate to near ties and before the swing back to the Dems in 2000. It means likely a Dem in the White House for just about every election thereafter and likely only a few Republican-controlled Congresses unless the party moderates significantly.
 
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Just a few points over the above posters...

-Why would Quebec go full-Irredentist? For decades now the Provincial government, regardless of if it wad Liberal or PQ, has given absolutely no shits about the French-speakers outside the province and there is a lot of resentment for that amongst Franco-Ontarians. Quebec has never helped them.
-Why would America go full-Anschluss? It's a ridiculous idea in yhr 20th or 21st century wherr there is literally no support for Annexationism. Plus, it would be a logistical nightmare to occupy and reorganise completely to integrate it into the US system.

Remember, there is a lot of anti-Americanism in both Anglo- and Franco-Canada.
 
Quebec might not be going for more than the Canadian Shield and resources therein using the French-speaking populace as an excuse to go for the lands in question. And the Atlantic provinces were said to have plans to apply for statehood since the 1970s if Quebec leaves - the fishing rights alone would make that a tempting offer.
 
I gravely doubt some of the radical proposals here (secession and US statehood for a continually fracturing Canada). Politically, I doubt it would be any worse than Quebec leaving and the rest of Canada going on without them. The major problem would be economics. And I think the economy and relationships with Canada, Quebec, and the United States are going to be thrown into doubt and potentially have serious problems in the long term. I would argue economically, Quebec is just fine where it is as part of Canada. And economically, it will cause all sorts of problems in leaving Canada, as frankly any secessionist act invites in leaving a nation. It also invites all sorts of awkward legal uncertainty, including business, property, status, jurisdiction, and all sorts of other matters, which would likely cause some short term upheaval and long term issues. There are consequences in cutting all the cords with a dull knife...many of which are tangled together, which the exuberance of waving a flag wholly ignores.
 
Well next thing is the cree separate from Quebec removing most of the mining forestry and power dams and apply to rejoin Canada

Iroquois do the same on the southern townships removing much of the south shore.

Quebec loses a third of its economy in loss of equalization payments. Then loses another third due to the loss of the northern resources and power dams.

Then you have the loss of all the federal jobs plus massive migration of folks to Canada

Result....Canada hurts keeping the debt but Quebec implodes shortly fiscally. Give it ten years and they would be begging to come back. Question is...would Canada accept a return to the previous status quo...
 
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