Quebec goes its own way after American Revolution

Southern Ontario being in the hands of Quebec Libre (to use the name Doug M. gave it in the other thread) is going to be interesting in the long run. I wonder if they can get enough French and Catholic refugees to settle the place to similar density levels as OTL.
 
I agree, though I'm of the opinion that Rupert's land wouldn't be sold off until the mid-19th Century to either Quebec or to the US (or even to an alternate dominion that GB might establish in the Fraser, Columbia and Mackenzie River watersheds -OTL names used).




Actually, Franklin was negotiating for what we know as southern Ontario and doing so at the expense of Michigan's Upper Peninsula, Northern Wisconsin and the Arrowhead Region of Minnesota as he thought the source of the Mississippi River to be further south than it actually is. (please forgive my anachronistic line along Maine's border):

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In hindsight, that's the crazy part.

Ahhh, that makes sense, the reference I came across with "Franklin wanted Canada" stemmed I think originally from a British source that was probably trying to smear him.
 
Eventually the Great Lakes make a good natural boundary...the UP/N. Wis & Mn have no easy access from north of the lakes, so even if north of the lakes is British, it will be settled by Americans. IMO no way the British hold on to anything much south of Hudson's Bay or east of the Rockies. Simply no way for them to access this area with an independent Quebec. Hudson's Bay area had very very few British actually living there, and was not settled but just posts for fur trade.

The space between the Great Lakes and the Rockies will represent a fertile vacuum that will draw in settlers, and they will come from the USA. Crossing the territory called the "Canadian Shield" north of the central Lakes is very tough, was major project for the trans-Canada RR. Likewise coming east from the Pacific coast you have 2 mountain ranges - and also no population pressure from Quebec or whatever British settlements on the Pacific Coast. On the other hand, access to the "Canadian Midwest" from the USA is very easy even before RRS...
 
So, does anyone think that Quebec could keep independent of the U.S., if it decided to? Or would the Yankees inevitably want to try to take it? Come to think of it, even if it's alone and doing its own thing as an easy target (like Mexico), the Southrons would be deeply against annexation, because that would throw off the slave/free state balance. So perhaps that alone would guarantee its sovereignty- maybe.

I'm wondering if the U.S. might ever go to war with it for southern Ontario, though.
 
So, does anyone think that Quebec could keep independent of the U.S., if it decided to? Or would the Yankees inevitably want to try to take it? Come to think of it, even if it's alone and doing its own thing as an easy target (like Mexico), the Southrons would be deeply against annexation, because that would throw off the slave/free state balance. So perhaps that alone would guarantee its sovereignty- maybe.

I'm wondering if the U.S. might ever go to war with it for southern Ontario, though.

"Southern Ontario" will be the hands of the Americans, not the Quebecois, when the dust settles after this alternate Revolutionary War.
 
So, does anyone think that Quebec could keep independent of the U.S., if it decided to? Or would the Yankees inevitably want to try to take it? Come to think of it, even if it's alone and doing its own thing as an easy target (like Mexico), the Southrons would be deeply against annexation, because that would throw off the slave/free state balance. So perhaps that alone would guarantee its sovereignty- maybe.

I'm wondering if the U.S. might ever go to war with it for southern Ontario, though.

I'm thinking that if it joins the US, it will essentially be forced to do so through economic isolation, rather than military conquest, because for reasons I'll state below, the US won't have many reasons to go to war with Quebec, and doing so would torpedo relations with France. The US will have a far larger population, so they'll probably sweep up everything outside of Quebec proper and perhaps some territory just to its west. Quebec will be very, very weak, they'll need to make generous agreements with the US, and will need to carefully balance their relations with both the US and France in order to stay independent. And the better US-France relations are, the better things will be for Quebec.
 
In some ways, it sounds like it has the low population of Canada crossed with the economic difficulties of Mexico, though perhaps without the civil unrest. From that other thread, again-

...Quebec /did/ have an incredibly unequal social system.

What made it different from Latin America -- as I noted -- was that land distribution was much more equal. While the seigneurial class owned vast tracts of land, the majority of Quebecois were small yeomen rather than tenant farmers.
...
Quebec Libre would be sui generis, with no very close analog in OTL history. But I think comparisons to Latin America are not completely useless.

Well, Catholic; pyramidal social structure; very low literacy; economy based on agriculture and extraction, with few artisans and no industry; attempt to create a republic despite no tradition of democracy or self-rule.

The reason why I like this idea is because instead of the U.S. becoming a very different beast with Quebec as a state (and so we would have to rethink how it develops from the get-go), the thought experiment is the more manageable "what if we have a friendlier, smaller, Frenchier Canada to the north, how would that place develop?" I like imagining alternate societies.

Edit: and one more illustrating how Quebec would not be too different from other Latin American republics.
 
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Over time, Quebec and the USA will negotiate a border.

ITTL,
USA might receive Upper Canada in Paris in 1783
Quebec is left with current borders

USA and Quebec work out trading treaties. The two nations actually become quite friendly.

There would be no war of 1812 between the USA and British. Indian Wars in the Ohio, Great Lakes, and Ontario regions occur.

Further down the timeline
USA purchases Red River of The North
Britian hands over the Hudson Bay watershed to Quebec

USA purchases all of Oregon minus Vancouver Island

There would be more pressure to annex Cuba to even out the slave and free states. More pressure to acquire more of Mexico as well. Both of these would fail just like OTL.

Without the possibility of expansion, the southern states secede sooner, 4 to 8 years.

Same result in Civil War, North is even more industrious as southern Ontario will be a leader in industry.

In 21st century, USA has larger oil reserves with Athabaska reserves in OTL Alberta.

Canadian football is relegated to Quebec. No NFL Buffalo Bills, team is in Toronto.

NHL is still the same. Hockey is very popular in Quebec and the northern US states like Ontario.
 
Over time, Quebec and the USA will negotiate a border.

ITTL,
USA might receive Upper Canada in Paris in 1783
Quebec is left with current borders

USA and Quebec work out trading treaties. The two nations actually become quite friendly.

There would be no war of 1812 between the USA and British. Indian Wars in the Ohio, Great Lakes, and Ontario regions occur.

Further down the timeline
USA purchases Red River of The North
Britian hands over the Hudson Bay watershed to Quebec

USA purchases all of Oregon minus Vancouver Island

There would be more pressure to annex Cuba to even out the slave and free states. More pressure to acquire more of Mexico as well. Both of these would fail just like OTL.

Without the possibility of expansion, the southern states secede sooner, 4 to 8 years.

Same result in Civil War, North is even more industrious as southern Ontario will be a leader in industry.

In 21st century, USA has larger oil reserves with Athabaska reserves in OTL Alberta.

Canadian football is relegated to Quebec. No NFL Buffalo Bills, team is in Toronto.

NHL is still the same. Hockey is very popular in Quebec and the northern US states like Ontario.

Why would Britain sell the Hudson's Bay watershed to Quebec that is friendly with France when the Brits could sell it to the Americans who are should have closer relationship with the UK without the war
Of 1812?
 
I wasn't trying to hose the good people of Quebec. Northern Ontario, northeastern Manitoba is not what I call ideal real estate, but it is better than nothing.

Maybe the USA passes on the offer for Upper Canada, Red River drainage basin, Oregon Country.

USA passes, UK does not want it after it sells the Red River basin to the USA, Quebec gets it for bargain basement price with Labrador.

Everyone is happy
 
I wasn't trying to hose the good people of Quebec. Northern Ontario, northeastern Manitoba is not what I call ideal real estate, but it is better than nothing.

Maybe the USA passes on the offer for Upper Canada, Red River drainage basin, Oregon Country.

USA passes, UK does not want it after it sells the Red River basin to the USA, Quebec gets it for bargain basement price with Labrador.

Everyone is happy

I don't think the Americans are going to be that generous, and would box Quebec in. Their settlers are going to be boxing Quebec in regardless, though in actuality I bet many new frontier towns to the west will be a mix of Anglos and Quebecois. Quebec will have to accept the situation because they cannot possibly win a war against the US. I think Quebec may end up as a quasi-state, with it's own separate legal system and government, but still attached at the hip to the US. What's happened to Newfoundland in this scenario? Still British?
 
Quebec would receive Labrador

Brits keep Newfoundland. I see Brits keeping Vancouver Island on the Pacific Coast.

With all of the Oregon Country including British Columbia, would the USA still make a bid for Russian Alaska? I think that they still would.
 
Man when settlement of North America is all set and done, the shape of the US and Quebec would look quiet awkward.
 
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