Just because the Chinese had a large army doesn't mean they aren't going to lose. Just look at the Germans at the Eastern Front. It'll be like that but worse.
Furthermore, there'll be problems within China itself with deploying troops - they were horrifyingly bad at logistics and even more corrupt - I think we all know the story of the Beiyang fleet once being used to haul fruits from the south. They lacked a merchant fleet to bring coal and iron, they lacked the expertise to make even average-grade weapons or bullets. They are surrounded and this is only going to be a Opium War 3.0.
Guangxu lacked a good cadre of supporters and advisors; for Christ's sake, he was almost led to believe the US and Britain would want a union with China - which was basically a complete prank by one of the ambassadors. Furthermore Cixi dying early would be like Yuan dying in 1915 - a meltdown of powers at Beijing, followed by warlords carving up different spheres of influence. She had the influence and the charisma, along with support from Li Hongzhang, to lead the country and deal with foreigners - Guangxu was a little kid compared to her.
Yuan was like MacArthur in that both of them were egoistic as shit and this somehow inspired loyalty in their armies. Furthermore the top guy in modernisation of China during the time(1870s~1890s) was Li Hongzhang; If Guangxu is to lead China, which
is going to need Li's support. And Li only died because of the Boxer Rebellion; sure I know he's old. But he'll hold on another decade - and a lot can change during that time.
I also really doubt that Yuan didn't want to become leader, since he was already consolidating power within the New Armies he was founding and made sure to show Sun who was on top after Xinhai. If you cite his delaying of the ceremonies to not wanting power, it was because he feared the iron ball - yes, there's an iron ball hanging above the throne that supposedly crashes down if someone without the mandate of heaven sits there - and wanted to push the throne several feet backwards. Now, I'm not particularly sure he wanted to become
emperor, but it's obvious that he was very good and very eager to consolidate power. And in the end he was going to be emperor, either de jura or de facto.