Qing dynasty in central powers

Hello, I want your opnions of this scenario, first of all, let's go to the details:

The Guangxu emperor isn't couped by Yuan Shikai and Dowager Cixi, you can choose how to prevent the coup (maybe just removing Shikai from the timeline, or making him a bit more loyal)

Kang Youwei and the "protect the emperor" society manages to sign a constitution based on the japanese one like he tried to do in real life

You can choose how and when the Qings enter in the war, so please tell me what changes this would bring to the WWI
 
Only way I see it possible is if China and Japan get in some kind of war and it merges into world war 1
 
Yuan is a spineless lizard human. All he wants is more power - as shown by his lack of support to Cixi during the Boxer Rebellion, after all the promotions he received from the Qing government.

Let's just say China somehow thought joining the Central Powers was a good idea(making the Qing survive is hard enough, but doubling with CP makes it basically ASB - if there is to be one, a military coup would rescind the order. Everybody knows how weak the Chinese are). This makes them liable to war with: America, Japan, Russia, Britain, and France. They will all take a slice. Although any agreement on China for division between the powers will not stand as Japan/America will have a growing appetite as time goes on, it's obvious that China will be partitioned in this scenario, something akin to the Ottoman Empire.
 
Wasn't the Coup in 1898? That would make it a pre-1900 thread.

1898 was when Guangxu got off the leash and tried to reform, but the Qing weren't deposed until 1911-12. What section this belongs in depends upon what POD you settle on.
 
1898 was when Guangxu got off the leash and tried to reform, but the Qing weren't deposed until 1911-12. What section this belongs in depends upon what POD you settle on.
OP clearly mentions the coup by Yuan Shikai and Dowager Cixi, which happened in 1898.

Also, I'm tempted to think that this will have a sizeable effect on the Russo-Japanese War, which could affect the standing of three countries in the leadup to the war. Of course, first they have to make it through the Boxer Rebellion, if that even happens.
 
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Yuan is a spineless lizard human. All he wants is more power - as shown by his lack of support to Cixi during the Boxer Rebellion, after all the promotions he received from the Qing government.

Let's just say China somehow thought joining the Central Powers was a good idea(making the Qing survive is hard enough, but doubling with CP makes it basically ASB - if there is to be one, a military coup would rescind the order. Everybody knows how weak the Chinese are). This makes them liable to war with: America, Japan, Russia, Britain, and France. They will all take a slice. Although any agreement on China for division between the powers will not stand as Japan/America will have a growing appetite as time goes on, it's obvious that China will be partitioned in this scenario, something akin to the Ottoman Empire.


I REALLY doubt that, the Qing empire harassing the brits in india would be enought to change a lot of things in europe, the BEF would have to transfer a huge part of it's force to the indian front (considering that Guangxu was a genius admnistrator, even the chinese republicans admired him, he of course would modernized a lot of the Qing dynasty by 1914), just image the battle of Ypres without the indians and canadians, this would problably be enought to change the result of the war, a central powers victory by 1917 and the qings would get outer manchuria back in brest litovsky.
 
considering that Guangxu was a genius admnistrator, even the chinese republicans admired him, he of course would modernized a lot of the Qing dynasty by 1914)

I started a thread about Guangxu succeeding at reforming actually, a few days ago, and then dying early and having an unscrupulous successor who is usted by the republicans. Yes, even Sun Yat Sen praised Guangxu's sense of modernity and ability to reform (if he weren't blocked); I wonder how close in modernity to modernized Japan China would've been by then if Guangxu had succeeded.
 
Yuan is a spineless lizard human. All he wants is more power - as shown by his lack of support to Cixi during the Boxer Rebellion, after all the promotions he received from the Qing government.

totally agreed; even after he became president-for-10-years, he was still power-hungry and wanted to freakin emperor
 
Guangxu would be far too smart to join the CPs. Why should China join the war and risk everything when remaining neutral allows it to consolidate its strength and economically boom while the other great powers fight it out? Formosa, outer Manchuria, and Hong Kong might have been tantalizing prizes, but not tantalizing enough to be better than the benefits brought by peace.
 
Guangxu would be far too smart to join the CPs. Why should China join the war and risk everything when remaining neutral allows it to consolidate its strength and economically boom while the other great powers fight it out? Formosa, outer Manchuria, and Hong Kong might have been tantalizing prizes, but not tantalizing enough to be better than the benefits brought by peace.

I tend to think Guanxgu also would've stayed out of the war.
 
totally agreed; even after he became president-for-10-years, he was still power-hungry and wanted to freakin emperor
Yuan may have been power hungry but he was a capable commander who inspired loyalty among his generals and craftd the strongest army in China at the time(it was only because he proclaimed himself emperor that he alienated some subordinates and then alienated the rest b trying to become a president again).

Also he didnt want to be emperor... he had thoughts of wanting to be a han emperor but he was prudent enough to not act on them. The problem was one of his advisers(or was it a few) who had misread the situation on the ground and a few others convinced him to become an emperor and without their urgings giving Yuan the perception that the people wanted a new empire Yuan would not have become emperor.

Also by 1911 the fall of the qing was becoming an inevitability. The reason why Yuan supported the nationlist was because
1)he had bad relations with the qing court which had caused him many issues and alienated him prior to 1911. He may also have harbored some nationalistic thoughts as well.
2)he was given quite the tantalizing offer by the nationlists that of president and he correctly realized that the people of China did not want the qing to remain in power and so he threw in his lot with the nationalists.

His emperor thing was a miscalculation on his part.

Now to prevent Yuan from defecting he needs to be treated better by the qing court which even up to 1911 did not fully trust Yuan as he was a Han rather than Manchu. If the qing could put aside that difference with Yuan and other loyalist Han generals and had kept him by their side during the early 1900s then I can see him supporting the qing. For the fact on the ground was it was the Beiyang army that played the role of the Kingmaker over who would control China between the Nat or Qing

If the qing can win over the loyalty of the Beiyang army bee tween 1900 and 1911 and offer Yuan better offers than those offered to him by Sun than Yuan being the pragmatist he was would support the qing and by extension his Beiyang army and the nationalists would have been crushed.

As for the qing-German alliance, perhaps when WWI breaks out Germany offers to return its treaty ports in China back to the qing in return for an alliance? This draws the qing into the central powers orbit and even if the Japanese try to invade China when facing the Beiyang army they will be pressed quite hard I have no doubt that the Beiyang army could have repulsed Japanese troops given how well trained it was. Plus you butterfly away the warlord era which is always a good thing
 
As for the qing-German alliance, perhaps when WWI breaks out Germany offers to return its treaty ports in China back to the qing in return for an alliance?

Neutrality you mean. Joining the CPs means fighting Britain, France and Russia, not just Japan. Maybe the Germans surrender Tsingtao back to the Chinese, then the Japanese go to war with the Chinese over Tsingtao and do not bother the Germans at all. But I have a hard time seeing either China or Germany doing that, a mere 15 years after the Boxer rebellion.
 
Neutrality you mean. Joining the CPs means fighting Britain, France and Russia, not just Japan. Maybe the Germans surrender Tsingtao back to the Chinese, then the Japanese go to war with the Chinese over Tsingtao and do not bother the Germans at all. But I have a hard time seeing either China or Germany doing that, a mere 15 years after the Boxer rebellion.

I agréé qing world be neutral i was just throwing around an idea.
 
Just because the Chinese had a large army doesn't mean they aren't going to lose. Just look at the Germans at the Eastern Front. It'll be like that but worse.

Furthermore, there'll be problems within China itself with deploying troops - they were horrifyingly bad at logistics and even more corrupt - I think we all know the story of the Beiyang fleet once being used to haul fruits from the south. They lacked a merchant fleet to bring coal and iron, they lacked the expertise to make even average-grade weapons or bullets. They are surrounded and this is only going to be a Opium War 3.0.

Guangxu lacked a good cadre of supporters and advisors; for Christ's sake, he was almost led to believe the US and Britain would want a union with China - which was basically a complete prank by one of the ambassadors. Furthermore Cixi dying early would be like Yuan dying in 1915 - a meltdown of powers at Beijing, followed by warlords carving up different spheres of influence. She had the influence and the charisma, along with support from Li Hongzhang, to lead the country and deal with foreigners - Guangxu was a little kid compared to her.
Yuan was like MacArthur in that both of them were egoistic as shit and this somehow inspired loyalty in their armies. Furthermore the top guy in modernisation of China during the time(1870s~1890s) was Li Hongzhang; If Guangxu is to lead China, which is going to need Li's support. And Li only died because of the Boxer Rebellion; sure I know he's old. But he'll hold on another decade - and a lot can change during that time.

I also really doubt that Yuan didn't want to become leader, since he was already consolidating power within the New Armies he was founding and made sure to show Sun who was on top after Xinhai. If you cite his delaying of the ceremonies to not wanting power, it was because he feared the iron ball - yes, there's an iron ball hanging above the throne that supposedly crashes down if someone without the mandate of heaven sits there - and wanted to push the throne several feet backwards. Now, I'm not particularly sure he wanted to become emperor, but it's obvious that he was very good and very eager to consolidate power. And in the end he was going to be emperor, either de jura or de facto.
 
Just because the Chinese had a large army doesn't mean they aren't going to lose.

Furthermore, there'll be problems within China itself with deploying troops - they were horrifyingly bad at logistics and even more corrupt - I think we all know the story of the Beiyang fleet once being used to haul fruits from the south. They lacked a merchant fleet to bring coal and iron, they lacked the expertise to make even average-grade weapons or bullets. They are surrounded and this is only going to be a Opium War 3.0..

On the topic of the Beiyang army (if you're also including them), sources differ, but some say that the Beiyang Army, while the MOST modern army in China at that time, wasn't truly up to par with the western nation armies' troops.
 
On the topic of the Beiyang army (if you're also including them), sources differ, but some say that the Beiyang Army, while the MOST modern army in China at that time, wasn't truly up to par with the western nation armies' troops.

Of course not. You can't train troops when the majority of the budget goes to preparing for the Grand Jubilee of Cixi and you simply lack funds.
 
On the topic of the Beiyang army (if you're also including them), sources differ, but some say that the Beiyang Army, while the MOST modern army in China at that time, wasn't truly up to par with the western nation armies' troops.
But what army could the western powers deploy to China at this stage with reasonable numbers when they are completely tied up in other theaters?There's always Japan,but is Japan involved?Another thing is how determined are the Chinese at war?
 
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