Qeestion. American Civil War

Whenever I hear about alternative history to the American Civil war, it always goes back to Gettysburg. Its my understanding that if the first battle had been won by the Union, that it would just be a skirmish?

Anyway, my question is if this battle is really as decisive as its made out to be. As in if the CSA had won, would it really be over for the Union Forces from then on?
 
Whenever I hear about alternative history to the American Civil war, it always goes back to Gettysburg. Its my understanding that if the first battle had been won by the Union, that it would just be a skirmish?

Anyway, my question is if this battle is really as decisive as its made out to be. As in if the CSA had won, would it really be over for the Union Forces from then on?


No. Absolutely not. The South had absolutely no way to win, barring foreign intervention which is unlikely to come by this point, to say the least. Or the North losing the will to fight, which is more likely but still fairly unlikely.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
The general sense is that - no, Gettysburg would have been far too late.

There were other defensive positions closer to Washington, for one thing, and a retreating Army of the Potomac could have entrenched at one of those. (One, Pipe Creek, is actually considerably better than Gettysburg).

Even assuming some kind of rout, where the Army of the Potomac disintegrates, there's still troops in the fortresses around Washington.

Even assuming Washington is captured, the government can evacuate.

And even assuming the industry in Washington was outright destroyed, there's still the industry of places like New York or Philadelphia.


...basically, even if everything goes perfectly for Lee (and I mean perfectly, unreasonably so) then the best he can get is a longer war which could eventually result in the Union's public opinion throwing in the towel.

By far the most likely outcome assuming a Gettysburg victory is that the Army of the Potomac entrenches at Pipe Creek and then the Army of Northern Virginia either retreats or beats its head on the defensive positions.
 
As a non-American, it's only recently dawned on me how unequal the American Civil War was. As far as I know, the Union was much more industrialized and had far greater manpower while all the Confederacy had going for it was southern spirit and good generals. Considering the country where I live, the United Kingdom, it was perhaps somewhat like what would happen if Scotland tried to beat England militarily.

I apologize if I'm going slightly off-topic, but it also appears to me that the Confederacy tried to defeat the Union in total war. Even if their ultimate goal is to get the Union to sue for peace and acknowledge their independence, fighting a conventional war under such outmatched circumstances seems foolish to me. Looking at military history as a whole, knowing full well that I'm an armchair commander at best, I would have opted for guerrilla warfare from the beginning, let alone sending major invasions into northern territory, sure to exhaust the South's scant manpower and supplies. What made the Confederacy make the decision to fight the Union as if it was a contest between Prussia and Austria rather than, more accurately, the war between the Nationalist Republic and Jiangxi Soviet? Was guerrilla warfare simply not a concept in America at the time?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
What made the Confederacy make the decision to fight the Union as if it was a contest between Prussia and Austria rather than, more accurately, the war between the Nationalist Republic and Jiangxi Soviet? Was guerrilla warfare simply not a concept in America at the time?

The desire for independence and recognition as such.
(It's the same reason for the Continental Army - they were literally trying to re-tread the American Revolutionary War, complete with the intervention of a foreign nation. Much like the American Revolutionary War, that would have been the real turning point.)
 
Last edited:
No, not at all. A victory at Gettysburg would have only delayed the Union victory. If you want the Confederates to win, you have to avoid the opening of the Western Theatre. To do this, you need a POD in early 1861. You need Davis to realize the importance of Kentucky and decide not to invade it. Then, by 1864, the Union would not have made much progress, and some Democrat (not McClellan, he was pro-war) wins the election and engages in peace negotiations with Davis.
 
Top