Qajar Persian vs. Tsarist Russian wars 1800's - 1830's

What if the Persians had out performed the Russians and won the second Ruso-Persian war of the 1800's (ending in 1818)? Would they have sustained their control over east Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia? What would happen during the third Ruso-Persian war in the 1830's? Would the Persians still invade Russia? Would Russia be bitter and invade the persians first? Would a Persian counter attack occur? I personally believe so. However I am not sure whether or not the Persian counter attack would be as successful as the Russian one in OTL. (I may upload maps soon! to give visuals!)
 
Here are some treaties of all of the caucus wars dating back to the 1650's from OTL
(OTL):
1 Russo-Persian War (1651–53) Persian strategic victory. Safavids gain more influence in the North Caucasus
2 Russo-Persian War (1722–23) Russian victory. Russia gains possession of Derbent, Baku, and the provinces of Shirvan, Gilan, Mazandaran, and Astrabad, but returns all territories to Persia about 10 years later.[2]
3 Russo-Persian War (1796) Russian withdrawal. Stalemate
4 Russo-Persian War (1804–13) Russian victory. Treaty of Gulistan[3] – Persia cedes what is now Georgia, Dagestan, parts of northern Armenia, and most of what now comprises modern Azerbaijan to Russia.[4][5]
5 Russo-Persian War (1826–28) Russian victory. Treaty of Turkmenchay[6] – Persia cedes all of what is now the Armenian Republic, Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan, and Iğdır to Russia.[7]Consolidation of the Gulistan treaty.
 
What if the Persians had out performed the Russians and won the second Ruso-Persian war of the 1800's (ending in 1818)? Would they have sustained their control over east Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia? What would happen during the third Russo-Persian war in the 1830's? Would the Persians still invade Russia? Would Russia be bitter and invade the persians first? Would a Persian counter attack occur? I personally believe so. However I am not sure whether or not the Persian counter attack would be as successful as the Russian one in OTL. (I may upload maps soon! to give visuals!)

From what I can see is the Qajars relied too much on irregular cavalry. Against a modern Russian army, the odds are low for the Persians. If Agha Mohammed modernised the military earlier the Russian troops would not have the advantage. The khanates being independent did not help either.
 
From what I can see is the Qajars relied too much on irregular cavalry. Against a modern Russian army, the odds are low for the Persians. If Agha Mohammed modernised the military earlier the Russian troops would not have the advantage. The khanates being independent did not help either.
That makes a great deal of sense, but it seems to me that both the Russians and the Persians would not have had a difficult time taking over the Khanates.
Also much of Persia's distraction from Transcaucasia was most undoubtedly caused by their relations with the mughals and ottomans.
 
That makes a great deal of sense, but it seems to me that both the Russians and the Persians would not have had a difficult time taking over the Khanates.
Also much of Persia's distraction from Transcaucasia was most undoubtedly caused by their relations with the mughals and ottomans.

That part. Persia never lost distraction of the Caucasus because of the Ottomans or Mughals. The Safavids and Afshars had the lionshare of the Caucasus. The complete anarchy after Nader Shah caused the loss of Persian control. Even Aga Mohammed did not directly control it until the 1820s and that is only Persia. The Russians had no trouble. They succeeded with numerical disadvantage. They reached as far as Zanjan.

Even after Nader Shah the Ottomans never attempt to estabelish direct rule in the Caucasus. A big shame if you ask me...

If only the Qajars focused more on Azerbaijan than Kerman for example. That would help a lot. Maybe Iran would be bigger.
 
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