Q: Operation Barbarossa in 1942

Okay so basically I'm wondering what the military effects of the Germans launching Barbarbossa in 1942 instead of 1941 would be. Basically I what to know how Barbarossa 42 would play out. This delay being because of longer campaigns in France and the Balkans causing the Germans to miss their opportunity to strike in 1941.
 
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Well, unlike OTL 1941, ITTL 1942 Red Army has a coherent strategic plan, a fully prepared war industry, most of their units at their full TOE, hundreds of thousands of retrained officers, a strong PVO and air defense organization, and... well the list just goes on. As a result, the German invasion probably bogs down almost immediately. The initial Soviet counter-offensive will also probably bog down almost immediately, as the Red Army will still have some defects to iron out. So on the whole, the summer campaign season of 1942 likely ends with the frontlines somewhere between the 1939 and 1941 borders.

The problem for the Germans is that this leaves the Red Army with positively monstrous amounts of industrial and military resources as well as the combat experience needed to fix the aforementioned Soviet deficiencies when winter-time rolls around while the Germans, like IOTL, would have piled all their assets up front. Oh, and the Anglo-Americans are also likely still on the other side, ratcheting up their sea and air campaigns while preparing to get back on the continent in '43/44.

To say the winter campaign season of 1942/43 and beyond will be "unpleasant" for the Germans is a huge understatement.
 
Also no US entry which means its worse for everyone, war might last to 46 (Nazis lose).

Eh? How? Magic? After Pearl, isolationism was deader then a doorknob and thus it was only a matter of time before a German sub put a torp into a US ship in a lend-lease convoys to Britain, thereby directing all that anger over Pearl Harbor onto them. And in any case, the Soviets can easily provide for themselves without losing half their industrial base from the initial German invasion while the Germans are stuck with the problem that between trade with (and through) the Soviets closed off and British blockade, their industry is going to be facing an acute raw material shortage very quickly. Oh, and a industrial-manpower crisis without the millions of Soviet slave laborers to free up workers from the countryside to replace those who have gone off to the frontlines (and subsequently been killed). The war will easily be over before mid-'44 (at the latest), regardless of what the US does.
 
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CalBear

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Also no US entry which means its worse for everyone, war might last to 46 (Nazis lose).

Actually Hitler will still be faced with the same choice as IOTL. He can declare on the U.S. or he can abandon the Battle of the Atlantic.

As soon as Congress declares war on Japan, FDR has the right, actually the obligation, to provide protection to all U.S. flagged ships (and since the UK is now a co-belligerent, arguably UK/Commonwealth flagged vessels as well) from Japanese attack.

"There is no way for the USN to determine if a submerged submarine is German or Japanese, so a complete exclusion zone around U.S. flagged convoys is announced. The U.S. will, of course, refrain from attacking any German submarine, provided it does not attack an American flagged vessel, once it surfaces and identifies itself since the U.S. has friendly relations with the 3rd Reich.

The U.S. can not, of course, give any assurances regarding RN or RCN vessels in the same convoy. The U.S. can also not take for granted that any submerged submarine is actually a KM boat, an IJN submarine might be lurking in the area, just awaiting the opportunity to attack (the Japanese have already clearly demonstrated their villainy, and a surprisingly wide reach, so prudence is the only acceptable course). So once it identifies itself, any U-Boat is free to conduct attacks, on the surface provided no U.S. vessels are targeted. Many of those U.S. vessels are, of course, carrying war supplies and/or troops to the UK. The British are our allies against Japan, and providing them with war supplies and sending troops to train with the more experience British forces, all for use against Japan, of course, is to be expected.

Of course we understand your concerns Chancellor Hitler, but we have the strongest of assurance that the materials will only be used against Japan."

End of the Battle of the Atlantic. End of any hope of forcing the British out of the war.

Perfect situation for the Americans
 
Germany went to war because it believed it was at the peak of its strength and that if it did not go for a decisive blow, it would be out competed - much like Japan by neighboring powers (US, France, UK, GB)

A 1942 Soviet Russia, would have more than the few KV's and T34's that it dispensed in 1941. All the meanwhile, Germany would not have developed any of the weapons required to counter any of these weapons. In 1941, they had time; in 1942 they would not.

The Soviet officer core would also be up to standard so there would be difficulty punching through. To further complicate issues, the strategic bombing campaign in the West would be in full swing, and so the Luftwaffe would have to split its forces, leaving insufficient reserves to achieve the successes of OTL Barbarossa.

All in all, Germany launched its war because it was out of time. It was probably near the best they could do and a delay of one year for them would be immensely disastrous.
 
In the France Fights On TL it happens in 1942 as a result of various butterflies from the 1940 POD.

Result: Germans fail to reach Leningrad, get stopped in Ukraine, and it all goes downhill for them from there.
 
Toss-up

-The 4000+ officers Zhukov saved along with the engineers and designers etc. arrested in the purges are likely dead

-USSR will be re-equipped with more T-34s and SVT-40s

-German tanks and technology are more mature

-But not in any fields that give them a decisive edge in Russia, sparing them winter in '41 and starting 2 months earlier could be interesting though

-USSR gets extra yield out of westernmost territories

-No lend-lease means Russian logistics are more limited and Japan might be more likely to attack the vehicles

-Overall SWAG: things are even more brutal than OTL with less rebound by Russia, they do consolidate but Moscow might fall for a while. Leningrad might also, the decisive battle will still come about 6-9 months after the initial invasion but it buys Germany an extra 6-9 months over OTL. Watch for a-bombs in Saxony in later '45.
 
Often discussed topic.
Basically the soviet armed forces were progressing faster than the Germans in the 1940 to 1941 period, and no Barbarrossa would reinforce that trend. The Germans would be stronger with one more year, and the soviets much stronger, having completed their re equipment and overcome the post purges chaos.

Other effects are harder to call, since Japan might not attack the US, and the Med would certainly be different.
 
In the France Fights On TL it happens in 1942 as a result of various butterflies from the 1940 POD.

Result: Germans fail to reach Leningrad, get stopped in Ukraine, and it all goes downhill for them from there.

I don't read French

-The 4000+ officers Zhukov saved along with the engineers and designers etc. arrested in the purges are likely dead

-USSR will be re-equipped with more T-34s and SVT-40s

-German tanks and technology are more mature

-But not in any fields that give them a decisive edge in Russia, sparing them winter in '41 and starting 2 months earlier could be interesting though

-USSR gets extra yield out of westernmost territories

-No lend-lease means Russian logistics are more limited and Japan might be more likely to attack the vehicles

-Overall SWAG: things are even more brutal than OTL with less rebound by Russia, they do consolidate but Moscow might fall for a while. Leningrad might also, the decisive battle will still come about 6-9 months after the initial invasion but it buys Germany an extra 6-9 months over OTL. Watch for a-bombs in Saxony in later '45.

Great points, but

What about starting 2 months earlier is interesting

Often discussed topic.
Basically the soviet armed forces were progressing faster than the Germans in the 1940 to 1941 period, and no Barbarrossa would reinforce that trend. The Germans would be stronger with one more year, and the soviets much stronger, having completed their re equipment and overcome the post purges chaos.

Other effects are harder to call, since Japan might not attack the US, and the Med would certainly be different.

Can you links some other threads?
 

trajen777

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1. USSR has more T34 / KV1 -- Germans will notices these tanks from recon and have a better understanding of what they are facing -- perhaps better anti tank aircraft - anti tank weapons -- R4R -- panzerfaust etc -- up gun all the PZ to 50 mm or 75 mm ( Pz 3 / 4) more assault guns etc
2. Depends what the Germans do in 1941 -- if capture n Africa and some of middle east -- force Spain into taking Gibraltar --
3. I doubt a Japan attack on USA -- they pushed Germany to support their efforts -- so no USA -- perhaps Japan more interested in attacking USSR
4. Soviet military better prepared but moral still low -- still issues with mass surrender in the opening battles -- troops will still not be bloodied
5. Germans will have more - better - and rested army

I think Germans better in 41 but will be very effective in 42 -- dont see USA involved
 
It's huge for the USSR.

All the tanks and new equipment, as others pointed out. The new defensive line in what was Poland (in 1941 the old line was being pulled down to establish the new one, so neither was effective, not so in '42)

The Germans attack. Are bloodily repulsed. The Soviets start their drive forward from the center of Poland, not the eastern borders of Belarus and the Ukraine.

Soviets advance way west. WAllies do D-Day in '43, which isn't nearly as well prepared, and advance east.

Post war, East German is 2/3 or 3/4 of Germany, West Germany is a bit of northern Germany (to hold the Danish border), and Germany west of the Rhein.

War ends some time in '44.
 

CalBear

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1. USSR has more T34 / KV1 -- Germans will notices these tanks from recon and have a better understanding of what they are facing -- perhaps better anti tank aircraft - anti tank weapons -- R4R -- panzerfaust etc -- up gun all the PZ to 50 mm or 75 mm ( Pz 3 / 4) more assault guns etc
2. Depends what the Germans do in 1941 -- if capture n Africa and some of middle east -- force Spain into taking Gibraltar --
3. I doubt a Japan attack on USA -- they pushed Germany to support their efforts -- so no USA -- perhaps Japan more interested in attacking USSR
4. Soviet military better prepared but moral still low -- still issues with mass surrender in the opening battles -- troops will still not be bloodied
5. Germans will have more - better - and rested army

I think Germans better in 41 but will be very effective in 42 -- dont see USA involved

1. Well, they kinda sorta totally missed the existence of the KV and T-34 IOTL, despite the KV having been in use for two years and the T-34 for a full year. Among other Field Marshal Jodl expressed shock at the appearance of the T-34. The Soviets were paranoid, occasionally that is a good trait to have with major weapon systems.

2. Better chance against thew Soviets than taking North Africa and the Western Desert. SO not going to happen.

3. The Japanese have utterly no choice in their decision to attack the U.S. NONE. They had under a year's worth of oil in the Army's reserve, the Navy had about 18 months, but that was at 1940 levels of activity. They were going to run out of Oil, tin, rubber, and all the other raw materials that the DEI, Malaya and the Philippines could supply (including, they thought, food). Japan HAS to go, the also have to go no later than mid 1942, and the sooner the better, once Zuikaku is finished with post commissioning trials. After mid 1942, the USN is so powerful, and the U.S. position in the Philippines, Wake & Guam are so much improved, it simply crushes them.

4. The Soviet troops surrendered en masse not because of morale, but because they were completely encircled thanks that idiot Stalin's "not one step back" decree. Soviet moral was actually always bewilderingly high, the average soldier's love of family and Rodina was so great that it was nearly unshakable. Now, after capture, Soviet troops were frequently quite mallable, assuming they were not simply starved to death, especially those from the Ukraine and other "Soviet" territories. But Russian Soviets? pack a lunch.

5. How is this the case? If anything the Heer will have temporarily have released troops back home to help the sputtering economy, especially agriculture. The Reich has no reason to evolve heavier tanks, if anything the battles in France the ongoing fighting in the Western Desert call for more speed and range, not heavier armor or larger main guns. Those revelations came from the Red Army.
 
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