Q: No Justinian in West - Federation of Germanic kingdoms (WRE) possible?

Given a scenario where Justinian (and his heirs) is not retaking the lands of the former WRE, is it possible that at some points the Germanic kingdoms formed in the former WRE (Ostrogothic K., Visigothic K., Francia, Vandalia etc.) might federate in some way in order to better protect themselves against powerful common enemies like Arabs, Vikings, the Byzantines in some context...?

At first these different Germanic entities rivaled between them but it is possible that at some point all of them might have established more or less stable common borders and also converged into a same Christian faith (probably Catholic).

Probably the expansion of Islam would have been not the same with Ostrogoths and Vandals in good shape, might be the Muslim armies would have been stopped at Libya. It is also possible that Avars, Hungarians etc. might have been halted and kept out of Central Europe.
 
Given a scenario where Justinian (and his heirs) is not retaking the lands of the former WRE, is it possible that at some points the Germanic kingdoms formed in the former WRE (Ostrogothic K., Visigothic K., Francia, Vandalia etc.) might federate in some way in order to better protect themselves against powerful common enemies like Arabs, Vikings, the Byzantines in some context...?

At first these different Germanic entities rivaled between them but it is possible that at some point all of them might have established more or less stable common borders and also converged into a same Christian faith (probably Catholic).

Probably the expansion of Islam would have been not the same with Ostrogoths and Vandals in good shape, might be the Muslim armies would have been stopped at Libya. It is also possible that Avars, Hungarians etc. might have been halted and kept out of Central Europe.

No.

Arabs are not even known by the 6th century. Vikings are not even a thing yet before the 9th century.

This kind of a federation is not gonna happen. The likeliest is that the Franks and maybe Ostrogoths will divide the Germanic Kingdoms among each other. Italy and Iberia ruled by the Goths, Gallia and Germania by the Franks.

The results following might lead to a series of conflict between the Goths on one side and the Franks (& East Romans) on the other side.
 
No.

Arabs are not even known by the 6th century. Vikings are not even a thing yet before the 9th century.

I am assuming that without Byzantine intervention the Vandalic and Ostrogothic kingdoms survived and both still existed by the mid-7th century (which is only one century more than IOTL).

This kind of a federation is not gonna happen. The likeliest is that the Franks and maybe Ostrogoths will divide the Germanic Kingdoms among each other. Italy and Iberia ruled by the Goths, Gallia and Germania by the Franks.

And what happens with Vandalic North Africa? It's out of reach for both Ostrogoths and Franks. Same for the Gepids.

Not to say that implying that Ostrogoths could invade the whole Iberia is highly unlikely because a) Franks would not allow it and b) Visigoths were able to kept Franks and Vandals out of Iberia, Ostrogoths would not be much different.

The results following might lead to a series of conflict between the Goths on one side and the Franks (& East Romans) on the other side.

Why? Franks only intervened in Italy when Lombards got in conflict with the Romans (and the Pope), but Ostrogothic Italy would be such a different scenario I doubt Franks would want to fight without a strong casus belli.
 
I am assuming that without Byzantine intervention the Vandalic and Ostrogothic kingdoms survived and both still existed by the mid-7th century (which is only one century more than IOTL).



And what happens with Vandalic North Africa? It's out of reach for both Ostrogoths and Franks. Same for the Gepids.

Not to say that implying that Ostrogoths could invade the whole Iberia is highly unlikely because a) Franks would not allow it and b) Visigoths were able to kept Franks and Vandals out of Iberia, Ostrogoths would not be much different.



Why? Franks only intervened in Italy when Lombards got in conflict with the Romans (and the Pope), but Ostrogothic Italy would be such a different scenario I doubt Franks would want to fight without a strong casus belli.

Vandalic Kingdom in North Africa either survives as a minor Kingdom or gets conquered by the East Romans anyway. I don't see the Goths conquer it until they consolidate their power.



Ostrogoths are still Arian (until they become Catholic, is IMO inevitable if they rule Italy). Reasons to could be the Frankish drive to the Mediterranean or the Popes call for aid.


Ostrogoths won't invade Iberia IMO. But they may absorb it or inherit it. They were kinda allied when the Franks advanced. The only reason the Franks did not go bezerk against the Visigoths was the Ostrogoth Threat. Besides... who would have thought the Arabs would conquer Iberia? Conquest is really unlikely but not out of question. Especially if Mediterranean Gallia under Visigoth/Ostrogoth hands.
 
Vandalic Kingdom in North Africa either survives as a minor Kingdom or gets conquered by the East Romans anyway. I don't see the Goths conquer it until they consolidate their power.

Even if a minor kingdom, if the Ostrogoths would be in good shape, would have not alllowed it to fail to the Arab dominion (as it would have threatened Sicily and Southern Italy).

Ostrogoths are still Arian (until they become Catholic, is IMO inevitable if they rule Italy). Reasons to could be the Frankish drive to the Mediterranean or the Popes call for aid.

With no Gothic Wars, the Ostrogoths would have embraced the Catholic faith by the end of the 6th century or so, just like Visigoths did in Spain.

Ostrogoths won't invade Iberia IMO. But they may absorb it or inherit it. They were kinda allied when the Franks advanced. The only reason the Franks did not go bezerk against the Visigoths was the Ostrogoth Threat.

I think it would have been too challenging for the Ostrogoths to keep control of the Iberian peninsula from Italy. Allied yes, direct rule doubtful.

Besides... who would have thought the Arabs would conquer Iberia? Conquest is really unlikely but not out of question. Especially if Mediterranean Gallia under Visigoth/Ostrogoth hands.

The Iberian peninsula is not easy to invade. The Arabs took advantage of a Civil War between two Visigothic factions and even this they failed to conquer the northernmost areas (in some years they lost control of the lands north of the Duero river). And it's obvious that Arab armies were far more competent that any European at the moment, maybe excepting the Franks.
 
My understanding is that the Ostrogoths were in for a bit of a rough time after theoderic but would probably convert to Catholicism and be very concerned about the franks expansion into burgundy and septimania. Imo it's not impossible that the two gothic kingdoms make it a bit harder for the franks to consolidate over southern gaul, perhaps seeing a more independent burgundy or Aquitaine if those provinces are not incorporated into the visigothic and oatrogogthic kingdoms outright.
Beyond that it's really anyone s ballgame.
 
My understanding is that the Ostrogoths were in for a bit of a rough time after theoderic but would probably convert to Catholicism and be very concerned about the franks expansion into burgundy and septimania. Imo it's not impossible that the two gothic kingdoms make it a bit harder for the franks to consolidate over southern gaul, perhaps seeing a more independent burgundy or Aquitaine if those provinces are not incorporated into the visigothic and oatrogogthic kingdoms outright.
Beyond that it's really anyone s ballgame.

I agree that I see an independent Burgundy acting as a buffer between Francia and the two Gothic kingdoms.
 
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