Q: How would the German monarchical system have developed in case of a moderate victory in WWI?

[Mario]

In the case of a moderate victory of the Central Powers in WWI, how the monarchical system of the German Empire would have developed afterwards?

By 'moderate victory' I mean not implementing the most extreme political goals of some leading factions of the CP, so basically no borders changing in the West (apart of maybe some minor adjustments) and not full Brest-Litovsk scenario implemented in the East (maybe just creating the Polish-Baltic puppets, with Belarus and Ukraine eventually falling again in the Soviet orbit).

Assuming that this alternate situation it's stable enough and it does not drift to another World War soon afterwards, how do you believe the monarchical system in Germany would develop in such scenario? It is obvious that the victory will endorse it at the immediate aftermath, but after some time I think it would come increasingly apparent that it was anachronistic and obsolete for the mid-20th century, specially if the eventual economical boost for Germany also pushes for more progressive and liberal policies and new forms of public administration. We are not talking about a monarchy that could eventually become more 'constitutional' in the English fashion, but of an intrincate pyramid of small, medium and big monarchs with the Kaiser on top.

It is possible that the monarchy might fall at some point but probably this needs some kind of bellic event or internal revolution. Another possibility is that the minor monarchies become just symbollical at some point and the Kaiser is set as the only real monarch under parliamentarian control. Or some scenarios inbetween. I am not even counting the effects of the Kaiser being also the sovereign of some of the new puppet states in personal union with them.

 

[Mario]

I am planning to write a TL about the alt-reign of William III, so any suggestion about how it could develope would be welcome

 

[AltoRegnant]

I'd assume the war would have to end in 15-16, since any later and Germany can take much more of Russia and France. Britain is going to need to find a way to orient japan away from America's realm in the south pacific, because both will be essential.

I don't think monarchy was inherently obsolete by the time of the 20th century- case in point there were plenty of authoritarian systems throughout that time based on everything from being a generalissimo to being your predecessor's favorite (supposedly), or just owning the right business. A monarch has all three going for them, as well as tradition, so I think that one who won the deadliest war in history would be in good shape to have a controlling share of the government.

 

[Mario]

I'd assume the war would have to end in 15-16, since any later and Germany can take much more of Russia and France. Britain is going to need to find a way to orient japan away from America's realm in the south pacific, because both will be essential.

Even if ending in 1918-19, Germany does not necessarily mean to 'take much' of France if Germany chooses to consolidate a solid situation after the War and do not make the errors of Versailles in the opposite way, setting the path for a second chapter of the World War. Maybe they could implement some border adjustments (i.e. Longwy-Briey) in their favour or 'force' Luxembourg to join the Empire, but it would be such a bad idea to piss the French even more by taking big French-speaking areas.

Brest-Litovsk, even if happening ITTL, it would be hard to implement in reality. Probably both Belarus and Ukraine would fall again into the Russian/Soviet orbit and the best scenario they could envision are puppet Poland, Lithuania and UDoB. It is not even clear that an eventual German-Austrian joint dominance in the Balkans would endure.

I don't think monarchy was inherently obsolete by the time of the 20th century- case in point there were plenty of authoritarian systems throughout that time based on everything from being a generalissimo to being your predecessor's favorite (supposedly), or just owning the right business. A monarch has all three going for them, as well as tradition, so I think that one who won the deadliest war in history would be in good shape to have a controlling share of the government.

The obsolete thing was not the monarchy itself but the intrincate pyramidal system of +30 monarchies. This had already proven by the IOTL beginning of the 20th century that this brought conflictivity between some national interests and the local interests of certain dynastic-linked lobbies. It was a burden for the development of an efficient public administration, and at the end of the day, to national economy and development of common infrastructures.

 

[Mario]

The ideas about how German monarchies develop would be used for a TL scenario where:

- William III succeeds his father by the late 1920s.
- He has to deal with the Soviet threat in the East.
- He has to deal with an eventual division of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
- He has to cope with the demands of internal reformation, including public administration.
- He has to contain the rise of Republicans, communists, anarchists and other leftist movements inside Germany.

 

[Mario]

This will be the map of the post-WWI scenario:

 

[Atterdag]

A lot like Japan I think, there’d be internal power struggles between civilian and military branches of government with the emperor likely being the deciding factor in who comes out on top, my money is on the military if it’s Willy 2 in charge

 

[Thomas1195]

A lot like Japan I think, there’d be internal power struggles between civilian and military branches of government with the emperor likely being the deciding factor in who comes out on top, my money is on the military if it’s Willy 2 in charge

This. Especially when the right-wing elements of the military had their officer corps on their side.

 

[Oda]

Lmao Germany aren’t japan before ww1 Germany has a vibrant democratic system with the social democrat party being the largest political party . The moment the war ends civilian control will return

 

[Thomas1195]

Lmao Germany aren’t japan before ww1 Germany has a vibrant democratic system with the social democrat party being the largest political party . The moment the war ends civilian control will return

Yeah, a "democratic" system in which the Reichstag had very limited power, the Chancellor was appointed by the Kaiser, the three-class voting system in Prussia (actually the federal level was the most democratic in the Second Reich), and extremely reactionary courts, civil service and military.

In an early-stage democracy, if you are a leader, what you don't want is a large professional standing army.

 

[Tibi088]

Yeah, a "democratic" system in which the Reichstag had very limited power, the Chancellor was appointed by the Kaiser, the three-class voting system in Prussia (actually the federal level was the most democratic in the Second Reich), and extremely reactionary courts, civil service and military.

In an early-stage democracy, if you are a leader, what you don't want is a large professional standing army.

A lot of which will change after the war to become much more democratic.
1. After the war instead of the politically reliable pre-war army and officer corps you have a trained and armed populace a lot of whom are not content with the pre-war system.
2. It was promised to the SPD that the three-class voting system will go. If this promise is broken see point 1.
3. If the three-class voting system goes the already very red Prussian reichtag will be completly in the hands of the SPD for the foreseable future
4. The SPD will create a much more democratic Germany and which will be well onits way to a full constitutional Monarchy

 

[Oda]

Yeah, a "democratic" system in which the Reichstag had very limited power, the Chancellor was appointed by the Kaiser, the three-class voting system in Prussia (actually the federal level was the most democratic in the Second Reich), and extremely reactionary courts, civil service and military.

In an early-stage democracy, if you are a leader, what you don't want is a large professional standing army.

Bismarck have intended the executive branch of the government to be independent of parliament oversight with various ministerial and civil service positions appointed by the Kaiser. Yet despite this the reichstag gradually discovered its control over the national budget and did not hesitate to use it to force the executive branch to compromised with parliament leaders lest of a Budget crisis. So no I don’t think the reichstag as u said have Very limited power.
Votes for the Reichstag was indeed the rights of every male regardless of wealth. Yes on a state level there was a tier level of voting which was considered democratic when it was first conceive in the 19th century. ( the state was acknowledging that the population have a stake in governance) but by the start of ww1 only Prussia was barely holding on to the three class voting system. The southern states ( Bavaria Baden etc)were instituting universal suffrage in 1904-1906 on a state level) Prussia was the main holdout but explosive growth in Berlin make it extremely tenuous to maintain. If ww1 haven’t break out Prussia mostly likely will introduce universal suffrage on a state level

 

[Thomas1195]

After the war instead of the politically reliable pre-war army and officer corps you have a trained and armed populace a lot of whom are not content with the pre-war system.

OTL events did show a lot about the political views of the German officer corps. And as for a civil war between rabble rouser Soc-dem leaderless soldiers and right-wing military led by well-trained officers/generals, I would not bet on the left (see the OTL Spanish Civil War).

 

[Tibi088]

OTL events did show a lot about the political views of the German officer corps. And as for a civil war between rabble rouser Soc-dem leaderless soldiers and right-wing military led by well-trained officers/generals, I would not bet on the left (see the OTL Spanish Civil War).

OTL we had a Germany that lost and whose military was massivly reduced as a consequence. During the war a lot of non-noble officers were promoted out of necessity - ATL they wont be get rid off. And though the army stil might have a good shot at winning a civil war they are not nearly as reliable and they are facing a much stronger opponent (veterans of the war). Not to mention the small fact that governments and rulers are usually not very keen on fighting civil wars when the way to avoid them is pretty clear and they knew long ago and were showing themselves ready to do just the thing to avoid it.

 

[Oda]

OTL events did show a lot about the political views of the German officer corps. And as for a civil war between rabble rouser Soc-dem leaderless soldiers and right-wing military led by well-trained officers/generals, I would not bet on the left (see the OTL Spanish Civil War).

Yeah the reds lead by Lenin are totally ill equipped and inexperienced compared to the well trained and equipped non commies lead by experienced ww1 generals

 

[NoMommsen]

OTL events did show a lot about the political views of the German officer corps. And as for a civil war between rabble rouser Soc-dem leaderless soldiers and right-wing military led by well-trained officers/generals, I would not bet on the left (see the OTL Spanish Civil War).

Only that german esp. prussian 'officers' esp. active officers political views never plyed much of a role aside entertaining the Kaiser. ... if he was in the mood for this kind of entertainment.
... could be the wrong choice if her majesty would be in one of his other 'moods' the one of playing the 'Kaiser of the people' as he did with quite a number and the extent of the social reforms that made Germany in terms of social policy world wide gold standard (in one or other ... 'Great Country' even today not reached).

And from 1870/71 the latest (if not already before) there was never ever the smallest chance for any kind of upheavel not to speak of a civil war.
Despite/Aside some beer'n'schnapps blessed rantings even of top brass militaries late at night with some buddies ... pure ASB.

...
If ww1 haven’t break out Prussia mostly likely will introduce universal suffrage on a state level

As a fact Bethmann-Hollweg on becoming prussian minister of domestic affairs in 1905 started almost immediatly to change the prussian electoral system. Though not right away introducing the Reichstag system but he layed out a step-by-step plan with first changing to kinda plurality system, some gerrymandering etc..
The prussian electorial system was under almost constant discussion since introduction of the prussian constitution.

The elections ystem would have definitly changed and rather earlier than later equaled the Reichstag system


Oh, and as I mentioned the notion "constitutional" already ...
I'm somewhat at a lost what the OP actually means with "monarchical" as the german as well the pruissian (as well as almost every german state of the german realm) were constitutional monarchies very very far from the seemingly absolutistic power some here seem to grant to Kaiser Bill.
His powers were bound by a plethora of strings which almost all the time rather effectivly hindered him and referred the truly important decisions into the realm and responsibility of the politicians.

I am planning to write a TL about the alt-reign of William III, so any suggestion about how it could develope would be welcome

I would recommend to read and learn (much) more of the inner workings of Prussian, Bavaria, Saxony, the City-states, ... and of the Realms political institutions, actors and their cabales.

 

[Persephone]

I'm far from an expert and I'm just spitballing here, but perhaps you could see the development of an equivalent to Japan's Taishō Democracy? Wilhelmine Democracy has a bit of a nice ring to it.

I would recommend to read and learn (much) more of the inner workings of Prussian, Bavaria, Saxony, the City-states, ... and of the Realms political institutions, actors and their cabales.

You know this sort of comment can come across as somewhat condescending, right? Like, I'm not accusing you of anything and I'm sure you're not intending it to come across like that, but not everyone might see it that way.

 

[Mikey]

Yeah, a "democratic" system in which the Reichstag had very limited power, the Chancellor was appointed by the Kaiser, the three-class voting system in Prussia (actually the federal level was the most democratic in the Second Reich), and extremely reactionary courts, civil service and military.

In an early-stage democracy, if you are a leader, what you don't want is a large professional standing army.

Right, yeah - the position of the Kaiser is going to be complicated, and highly dependent on the personality and position of the individual holding the office, but I don't think that it's quite right to say that its primary challenge will be the democratic forces of the Reichstag, especially after a military victory. But the actual back and forth will be complicated, and the military will remain a very significant factor in both monarchical and electoral politics.

Wilhelm II was never one for actually recognizing any parliamentary sovereignty, and though he'll have reigned for a long time by the end of WWI*, he'll only be 60 as of 1919, so you have a very possible 20 years left with him, before he's even really into his dotage and able to be readily sidelined. You'll also have the Empress to deal with, who in OTL died in 1921, but may avoid that without the stresses of being deposed. Who knows, of course, but she was only 62, so it's certainly possible she'd live quite a bit longer.

In any case, much like our Prince Charles, it means that Wilhelm III, if he survives his father, is going to go through most of his adult life with living parents. He became Crown Prince in 1888, but was already 59 when his father died OTL. Coming to the throne after fifty years of Wilhelm II, as a kind of elder statesman, in the middle of the century, is a really different scenario than taking power as a young man.

An interesting figure here might be Louis Ferdinand: he spent time living in Detroit and met Henry Ford, at some point, was in touch with FDR, and was a generally popular figure during his later life, dying in 1994. If people die on schedule, he'll be the German Emperor for half the twentieth century.

 

[NoMommsen]

I would recommend to read and learn (much) more of the inner workings of Prussian, Bavaria, Saxony, the City-states, ... and of the Realms political institutions, actors and their cabales.

You know this sort of comment can come across as somewhat condescending, right? Like, I'm not accusing you of anything and I'm sure you're not intending it to come across like that, but not everyone might see it that way.

It was definitly not my intention to offend anyone. If it might be perceived as such I honestly apologize.

I only wanted to help the OP in his intention to write an ATL the best possible way with a firm foundation of knowledge and I simply don't have the time to hint at all the literature which might be helpfull.
Perhaps as first stopgaps :

• the actual constitution of the German Empire - as well as its flaws
• the constitution of the prussian kingdom - as well as its flaws
• for getting the prussian suffrage system in some perspective here's an old post of mine

  election systems of the member states of the german empire nowhere existed womaen suffrgae, everywhere was an age-restirction, mostly only from age 25 onwards)
  Bayern
  census-suffrage (to-pay-or-not-to-pay tax), common, equal, secrect and direct
  Württemberg
  2.Chamber
  common, equal (some deputies elected by majority, some by proportion), secret and direct,
  Badenia
  2.Chamber
  common, equal, secret, direct
  Hesse
  2.Chamber
  census-suffrage, one additional vote above age of 50, secret and direct
  Oldenburg
  One Chamber
  common (aside servants, not allowed at all), one additional vote above age of 40, secret and direct
  Brunswick
  One Chamber
  3-class census-suffrage, for only a part of the deputies (30), another 18 were set by stands (priests, lqandowners, nobles, etc), secret, indirekt (electors college)
  Lippe-Detmold
  One Chamber
  3-class census-suffrage, secret, direct
  Schaumburg-Lippe
  one chamber
  deputies 'choosen' between themself by the chevalric landowners, priests, the cities and the counties (Kreise), no participation of the 'citizenry' as a whole
  Saxony (after a rather lively course of development)
  One Chanber
  plurality vote with up to 4 votes for a single voter depending on tax (census), age (one additional above age 50), achieved school degree, voluntary military service, indirect but at least secret.
  Mecklenburg
  One Chamber
  no election at all, composed of chivalric landowners (could be rich 'commons' aka non-nobles too) and delegated of the 'Landschaft', cities and towns with adjacent land and villages. All this exclude the population living on the grounds of the ruling Grand Duke (about a third of the whole populace)
  Hamburg
  Citizenry ('Bürgerschaft') the 2.Chamber
  one half by secret, direct election, only for 'citizens' (tax-payers mainly, excluding about 80-90 % of the populace), the other half came from the 'clubs' of landowners and 'notable'
  Bremen
  eight (in numbers 8) class suffrage depending on income, school grades, 'rank' within the different professions of tradersm crafters and artisans, special residences. For the few who actually knew, that they could vote the election was a secret and direct.
  Lübeck
  common, equal, secret, direct
  Duchy of Anhalt
  One Chamber
  compsition by direct nominees of the Duke, some from the highest taxed landowners, some from the highest taxed traders and crafters, some elected by the populace of at least some cities and some elected by the populace of the countyside. These laste at least secrat and directly elected
  
  ... and pls don't ask what variations and/or combinations of all the above the several thuringian duchies were sporting ...
  
  Alsac-Lorrain (since 1911)
  common, equal, secret, direct (as in the Empire's constitution)

  My favorite is the "modern" City of Bremen here
  
• read about the "Kulturkampf" fight between Bismarck and the catholics which rather created the political powerhouse of the center parts
• read about the anti-socialist-laws which created the SPD as a workers powerhouse
• and thereby learn how similar the situation of the catholics as well as the SPD was and how this experience turned them into truly 20th century political parties ... what all other parties did not learn and therefore miserably failed in Weimar times IOTL
• read at least the wiki aerticles about chancellor von Bülow and the 'grey eminence' of politics von Holstein

These are - as said - some first starting points to get a ... 'feeling' for the politics of the Kaiserreich.
I simply don't hve the time for more atm.

 

[Mario]

Do you think that a German Civil War between the pro-monarchical conservative factions and the Republican leftists could be likely some years after the end of the WWI?

Specially if eventually A-H is divided and German Austria tries to join Germany (this could be a good trigger).