Purely a US/Japanese war: How bad for Japan?

Let's say Germany meets a prepared French Army in the Ardennese and is eventually beaten back. By late 1940 it is all over and Germany is defeated. Japan still attacks Pearl Harbor in 1941 over the oil embargo. How much worse is this for Japan than OTL?
 
maybe a little worse, but it's hard to imagine the war going much differently. The USA will still lack carriers and have to wait all that naval construction being done. I suppose there would be more destroyers immediately available for the Pacific, since there's no need for ASW warfare in the Atlantic. There would be more men available for use in the Pacific theater, but the US is going to be limited by construction for a while... need to make all those transports too...
 
Let's say Germany meets a prepared French Army in the Ardennese and is eventually beaten back. By late 1940 it is all over and Germany is defeated. Japan still attacks Pearl Harbor in 1941 over the oil embargo. How much worse is this for Japan than OTL?

Without French Indochina, well it is pretty much impossible for Japan to succeed initially in the extent they did IOTL. They probably attack Indochina and advance slowly, much slower than in Malaya campaign. Possibly they get to Saigon eventually, but by that time French and British fleets arrive in Singapore and it gets much tougher for Japanese. I do not think Japanese would be able to consider attacking Indonesia. As for US, I do not see any reason for them being more successful in the first 6 month than they were IOTL. Afterwards... Well you can pretty much guess what happens when entire military might of US, France and UK swoops down on them.
 
Let's say Germany meets a prepared French Army in the Ardennese and is eventually beaten back. By late 1940 it is all over and Germany is defeated. Japan still attacks Pearl Harbor in 1941 over the oil embargo.

Oil embargo that had its immediate reason in the Japanese move against Vichy French Indochina, which in turn the Japanese carried out as astepping stone towards British rubber and Dutch oil in SE Asia. Britain had quite a lot of fish to fry at the time, and the French and Dutch were KO.
In other words, no war in Europe in which those states are slapped around by the Axis, no Japanese move, no embargo, no Pearl.
Back to the history books.
 
Oil embargo that had its immediate reason in the Japanese move against Vichy French Indochina, which in turn the Japanese carried out as astepping stone towards British rubber and Dutch oil in SE Asia. Britain had quite a lot of fish to fry at the time, and the French and Dutch were KO.
In other words, no war in Europe in which those states are slapped around by the Axis, no Japanese move, no embargo, no Pearl.
Back to the history books.

The odds of them doing so is against the odds but it is not impossible. After all they were way too overconfident OTL this just makes them even more so. If logic dictated Japanese policy they wouldn't have attempted it even in OTL. Maybe they think they have to destroy the US fleet before taking on the rest?
 
Last edited:
Given the completely different strategic situation ITTL, I don't see Japan making any moves against French Indochina or the USA. The fall of France was a major game changer in world politics.

Japan never attacked Indochina IOTL - it was unopposed. The Vichy authorities simply accepted Japan moving troops there because they couldn't do anything about it. ITL, any attempt by Japan to move into Indochina means war with Paris. Which means Japan is at war with both France, Britain, Australi, and Canada (and likely the Netherlands as well), who aren't at war anymore with Germany.

Japan doesn't even have the opportunity to attack the USA because they are engaged in a major war against the Allies in the South China Sea. At best Japan has some naval victories and lands some troops, but by late 1941 reinforcements from Europe begin to overwhelm the Japanese. Allied operations are likely limited to supporting China and reopening the port of Canton. Besides naval action and cleaning up any landings on their colonies, the Allies probably keep any independent actions to landing on Taiwan. Otherwise, they help China kill as many Japanese as possible while Chiang Kai Shek slowly pushed Japan out of southern China and then pushes into central China towards Nanking. If Japan still refuses to make peace, then eventually a push into the north China plain is made, and eventually into Manchuria.

The USA, who has a President that is not FDR, and who knows could even be Taft, is involved merely as someone offerring to mediate a peace.
 
Given the completely different strategic situation ITTL, I don't see Japan making any moves against French Indochina or the USA. The fall of France was a major game changer in world politics.

Japan never attacked Indochina IOTL - it was unopposed. The Vichy authorities simply accepted Japan moving troops there because they couldn't do anything about it. ITL, any attempt by Japan to move into Indochina means war with Paris. Which means Japan is at war with both France, Britain, Australi, and Canada (and likely the Netherlands as well), who aren't at war anymore with Germany.

Japan doesn't even have the opportunity to attack the USA because they are engaged in a major war against the Allies in the South China Sea. At best Japan has some naval victories and lands some troops, but by late 1941 reinforcements from Europe begin to overwhelm the Japanese. Allied operations are likely limited to supporting China and reopening the port of Canton. Besides naval action and cleaning up any landings on their colonies, the Allies probably keep any independent actions to landing on Taiwan. Otherwise, they help China kill as many Japanese as possible while Chiang Kai Shek slowly pushed Japan out of southern China and then pushes into central China towards Nanking. If Japan still refuses to make peace, then eventually a push into the north China plain is made, and eventually into Manchuria.

The USA, who has a President that is not FDR, and who knows could even be Taft, is involved merely as someone offerring to mediate a peace.

I admit it is an outlier but not impossible. They might roll the dice England and France is too busy occupying Germany (which would be expensive enough) to spend money fighting in Asia.
 
Top