Puerto Rico votes for statehood in 1993

In 1993, Puerto Rico had a referendum on whether to remain as an unincorporated territory/commonwealth or become a state. The option to remain as an unincorporated territory/commonwealth won by an extremely close margin of 2.3%. What if the statehood option had won? Would the Congress have approved Puerto Rico becoming a state? If so, what effects would it have had on the elections?
 
Democrats get a second Hawaii

Not very sure of that. I can see Puerto Rico voting Republican depending on the circumstances, especially at the state level. Very Catholic area.

First of all, Puerto Rico doesn't really have Democrats or Republicans. It has the New Progressive Party (Pro-Statehood) and Popular Democratic Party (Pro-Commonwealth). The NPP on the whole is center-right and its members affiliate with both the mainland Democratic and Republican Party, whereas PDP members almost entirely associate with the Democrats.

So, for example, Luis Fortuno was a libertarianish guy who was a Mitch Daniels-style spending hawk who was liberal on some social issues like gay marriage and marijuana policy - so he affiliates with the GOP and was talked about as a potential running mate in 2012 for Romney. On the other hand, the current Governor Ricardo Rosello is a centrist with a background in finance and affiliates with the Democrats on the mainland. Both are NPP members. Odds are, Puerto Rico will continue to have its own two parties due to the linguistic split from the mainland.


Plus, Puerto Ricans on the island are very purple voters. Mainland Puerto Ricans who were born in and grew up in the mainland tend to vote Democratic, but new arrivals to the mainland have tended to be swing voters.

Puerto Rico will probably have a better financial situation since they won't be able to borrow as much money at lower interest rates than they should due to being a US state rather than a commonwealth. They'll have to pay more federal taxes however, so I don't see why Puerto Ricans wouldn't end up as anti-tax advocates since new taxes will be a pretty sudden shift. Puerto Rico will likely join Hawaii in being opposed to the Jones Act. I can see PR trying to do what Florida did OTL and become a center for companies fleeing the high taxes of the northeast by having a low corporate rate and comparably low income taxes (today it's 4% in PR, for example).

As for Presidential elections, PR probably makes Florida a moot point in 2000 if they go for Gore. However, I think Bush is likely to win Puerto Rico given his strong hispanic appeal and his ability to campaign in Spanish.
 
First of all, Puerto Rico doesn't really have Democrats or Republicans. It has the New Progressive Party (Pro-Statehood) and Popular Democratic Party (Pro-Commonwealth). The NPP on the whole is center-right and its members affiliate with both the mainland Democratic and Republican Party, whereas PDP members almost entirely associate with the Democrats.

So, for example, Luis Fortuno was a libertarianish guy who was a Mitch Daniels-style spending hawk who was liberal on some social issues like gay marriage and marijuana policy - so he affiliates with the GOP and was talked about as a potential running mate in 2012 for Romney. On the other hand, the current Governor Ricardo Rosello is a centrist with a background in finance and affiliates with the Democrats on the mainland. Both are NPP members. Odds are, Puerto Rico will continue to have its own two parties due to the linguistic split from the mainland.


Plus, Puerto Ricans on the island are very purple voters. Mainland Puerto Ricans who were born in and grew up in the mainland tend to vote Democratic, but new arrivals to the mainland have tended to be swing voters.

Puerto Rico will probably have a better financial situation since they won't be able to borrow as much money at lower interest rates than they should due to being a US state rather than a commonwealth. They'll have to pay more federal taxes however, so I don't see why Puerto Ricans wouldn't end up as anti-tax advocates since new taxes will be a pretty sudden shift. Puerto Rico will likely join Hawaii in being opposed to the Jones Act. I can see PR trying to do what Florida did OTL and become a center for companies fleeing the high taxes of the northeast by having a low corporate rate and comparably low income taxes (today it's 4% in PR, for example).

As for Presidential elections, PR probably makes Florida a moot point in 2000 if they go for Gore. However, I think Bush is likely to win Puerto Rico given his strong hispanic appeal and his ability to campaign in Spanish.

I’m guessing after statehood, at least at presidential elections, Puerto Rico will vote for one of the main two parties. Then again the idea of Puerto Rico voting third party and taking the election to the house is quite funny.
 
I’m guessing after statehood, at least at presidential elections, Puerto Rico will vote for one of the main two parties. Then again the idea of Puerto Rico voting third party and taking the election to the house is quite funny.

The established parties in PR would probably unite with the major US political parties after statehood. This wouldn't really impact 1994 or 1996, but it might be enough to make Gore President given that Latino voters went overwhelmingly Democratic in that election despite Bush's appeals to minorities.
 
Puerto Rico as congressional kingmaker- with its third-party members swinging whichever way the wind is blowing to make the best deal for PR- probably wouldn't last long. The presence of PR isn't going to shift polarization trends on the mainland significantly. They might speed them up/slow them down marginally, but by some point this decade I feel like we'll get to the point where "reasonable compromisers" in PR won't really have a home in the GOP anymore.

I could be wrong and we could have an interesting tail-wags-dog situation where as long as the taps are on for PR they'll vote with whatever majority is present, but given how most moderates in the political class have abandoned the GOP these days, I'm not sure how PR will avoid it.

Agreed that it does somewhat shift the balance back in favor of the Democrats nationally, and that in cases where PR's delegation represents the balance of power they'll most likely side with the Democrats. Still, PR statehood alone can't fully correct the imbalance.
 
With Puerto Rico coming in who would they take House of Representative seats from, or could we see a move to end the cap and just make the House bigger?
Would Republicans try to get some of the Pacific territories statehood?
 
Puerto Rico's new statehood would not cause much shifts, though the Senate and House remain big issues to consider. While I think Puerto Rico would remain purple at first, it would not take long for it to start heading to the left if namely the GOP's approach to minorities. Heck, I'd see the state becoming pretty blue after Bush's failures with Katrina and as hurricanes and such get more severe.

While not a kingmaker, PR's influence would be felt the most in the Senate.
 
With Puerto Rico coming in who would they take House of Representative seats from, or could we see a move to end the cap and just make the House bigger?
Would Republicans try to get some of the Pacific territories statehood?

No clue there. Maybe Guam, but even then. Puerto Rico seems the best bet because of proximity and so on.
 
Bear in mind that, if PR became a state, it would have probably seven electoral votes, meaning five in the House. It also means that the magic number for the President becomes 271 since there would be a total of 540. So if we accept this number for 2000, we have to ask where the other five Reps come from. Assuming they are roughly evenly distributed between red and blue states, without PR, the total comes down to either 268-265 or 269-264 depending on who loses the extra one. Either way, the winner of PR wins, and based on what we have seen above, it’s probably the Dems, especially if they are the reason for PR’s statehood and PR is generally happy about it. It means Florida is irrelevant and Gore wins the election, likely butterflying a LOT of things in the 21st century.
 
First of all, Puerto Rico doesn't really have Democrats or Republicans. It has the New Progressive Party (Pro-Statehood) and Popular Democratic Party (Pro-Commonwealth). The NPP on the whole is center-right and its members affiliate with both the mainland Democratic and Republican Party, whereas PDP members almost entirely associate with the Democrats.

So, for example, Luis Fortuno was a libertarianish guy who was a Mitch Daniels-style spending hawk who was liberal on some social issues like gay marriage and marijuana policy - so he affiliates with the GOP and was talked about as a potential running mate in 2012 for Romney. On the other hand, the current Governor Ricardo Rosello is a centrist with a background in finance and affiliates with the Democrats on the mainland. Both are NPP members. Odds are, Puerto Rico will continue to have its own two parties due to the linguistic split from the mainland.


Plus, Puerto Ricans on the island are very purple voters. Mainland Puerto Ricans who were born in and grew up in the mainland tend to vote Democratic, but new arrivals to the mainland have tended to be swing voters.

Puerto Rico will probably have a better financial situation since they won't be able to borrow as much money at lower interest rates than they should due to being a US state rather than a commonwealth. They'll have to pay more federal taxes however, so I don't see why Puerto Ricans wouldn't end up as anti-tax advocates since new taxes will be a pretty sudden shift. Puerto Rico will likely join Hawaii in being opposed to the Jones Act. I can see PR trying to do what Florida did OTL and become a center for companies fleeing the high taxes of the northeast by having a low corporate rate and comparably low income taxes (today it's 4% in PR, for example).

As for Presidential elections, PR probably makes Florida a moot point in 2000 if they go for Gore. However, I think Bush is likely to win Puerto Rico given his strong hispanic appeal and his ability to campaign in Spanish.

One of the main reasons for those parties' existence is Puerto Rico's political status so I believe that after stahehood, they may dissolve themselves.
 
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The 2000 census and the Congressional reapportionment act that follows was not instituted until after the 2000 elections.

Meaning, Puerto Rico may have been allocated only three electoral votes for 2 senators and one house seat, the minimum as indicated by the US Const.

The number would then be adjusted after the next House reapportionate bill that follows the 2000 census.

This did not happen until after the election.

So PR would only have 3 electoral votes and then be adjusted up for 2004 and 2008 elections.

OTL, W. had 271 votes and Gore 266 electoral votes.

With three additional electoral votes making it 540, 271 is the magic number.

Unfortunately for the USA, Bush still wins 271 to 269 even if PR went to Gore and we still have Iraq 2003.

There is a chance though that with PR coming into the Union that there is a more immediate reapportionment based on its larger population than several existing states, or even the chance that the House just increases from 435 members to 435 + PR seats. That would be the first time of enlargement since 1908.
 
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